Awards season marches on and this weekend are the 22nd Screen Actors Guild Awards. As we all know, this was an anomalous year with SAG correlating with the Oscars. Only two of the five Outstanding Cast in a Motion Picture nominees made the Oscar Best Picture lineup of eight. That means that Spotlight and The Big Short, the two Oscar Best Picture frontrunners, are statistically the only viable winners in the top category. Although, four of the five films nominated in Outstanding Cast (the others being Beasts of No Nation and Trumbo) also have individual nominations to bolster their positions. In Trumbo‘s case, it has two.
Since the inception of the SAG awards, we’ve never had a year in which all four acting winners have come from films lacking a corresponding Cast nomination (minus 1994, since there was no such category in its first year). This is only problematic if you’re predicting a DiCaprio/Larson/Rylance/Vikander or Winslet lineup since Christian Bale is the only frontrunner with an Outstanding Cast nomination. Sure, Bryan Cranston and Helen Mirren are both nominated for Trumbo and the film has a Cast nomination as well but Cranston, despite the legion of TV voters who will probably cast a few his way, has very little chance against DiCaprio and non-Oscar nominee Mirren doesn’t feel like a formidable candidate against Oscar nominees Alicia Vikander or Kate Winslet.
So, if the stats hold the winners will be Dicaprio/Larson/Bale/Vikander or Winslet. Unless, of course there is a surprise win by Rachel McAdams. In that case the Best Supporting Actress race turns into this:
One possible scenario that exists would be if voters want to respond or send a message about the Oscar white out and vote for Idris Elba in Male Actor in a Supporting Role or his film, Beasts of No Nation, in Outstanding Cast. Same goes for Straight Outta Compton in that category. A win by either of those films over Spotlight or PGA winner The Big Short would be a shocking upset and an undeniable shot fired over the bow at the Oscars. Now, that is highly unlikely since, to date, no one has ever won and individual SAG without being nominated for the Oscar as well. Obviously that makes Elba’s chance to spoil pretty difficult. Same goes for Jacob Tremblay (Room), Michael Shannon (99 Homes), Sarah Silverman (I Smile Back) and Helen Mirren. The only film to win the Best Picture Oscar without a SAG Cast nomination was Braveheart, the first year of the SAG Outstanding Cast category.
Let’s look at the winner crossover of SAG and the Golden Globes for the last 10 years.
Golden Globe/Screen Actors Guild Crossover
In the last 10 years the Golden Globes have gone at least 3/4 with SAG.
2005 – 3/4 (George Clooney won the Golden Globe, but Paul Giamatti won the SAG)
2006 – 4/4
2007 – 3/4 (Cate Blanchett won the Golden Globe; Ruby Dee won the SAG)
2008 – 3/4 (Kate Winslet won the Golden Globe; Meryl Streep won the SAG)
2009 – 4/4
2010 – 4/4
2011 – 3/4 (Meryl Streep won the Golden Globe; Viola Davis won the SAG)
2012 – 3/4 (Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe – wasn’t even nominated at the SAG; Tommy Lee Jones won the SAG)
2013 – 3/4 (Jennifer Lawrence won the Golden Globe; Lupita Nyong’o won the SAG)
2014 – 4/4
This year, Golden Globe winner Sylvester Stallone (Creed) was not SAG nominated. Will he end up like Waltz and not need a SAG nom to win the Oscar? What about Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) – will she see a repeat of 2008 by winning the Globe, losing the SAG only to go on to win the Oscar? Granted, that was a very different situation then, with category fraud a big part of that loss/win for her. She’s most definitely in the running for both SAG and Oscar this year.
Right now, the predictions of The Gold Rush Gang are in line with the highest statistical probability. Meaning wins for The Big Short, Leonardo DiCaprio, Brie Larson, Christian Bale and Alicia Vikander. There is some fluidity in those supporting categories with Adam going for Mark Rylance instead of Bale and Jacqui going for Kate Winslet instead of Vikander.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Straight Outta Compton
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Jacob Tremblay, Room
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Mad Max: Fury Road
Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation
The 22nd Screen Actors Guild Awards air live this Saturday, January 30th at 5pm PST/8pm EST and will be simulcast on TBS and TNT.