We have the same lineup this month as last month, and in the same order as well. Viola Davis (Fences) still rules the roost this month. She won the supporting actress prize from the Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association and last week also brought critics awards for Manchester by the Sea‘s Michelle Williams (NYFCC) and Moonlight‘s Naomie Harris (NBR). Both actresses, however, did not receive Independent Spirit nominations. For Williams it was an outright snub, for Harris it was because the ensemble of her film received the juried Robert Altman Award, which meant she couldn’t be nominated.
Nicole Kidman (Lion) still hangs on despite her film being locked out of both NBR and AFI’s Top 10 lists. She’s going to need Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild love next week but in a category this weak, it might not even matter. Same goes for #5’s Greta Gerwig. Her film, 20th Century Women, has all but dried up so far this first week of critics’ attention, including her co-star and leading lady, Annette Bening. It seems unlikely that Gerwig would get in without Bening but it’s not impossible. Gerwig’s lack of an Independent Spirit nomination doesn’t help her, though.
So what does that mean for this category? Are we settling in on this top 5? Well, I think what it means is that this category is pretty open. It means that a surprise SAG nominee like Molly Shannon for Other People or a late-breaking release Hidden Figures could spell success for either (or both) Octavia Spencer or Janelle Monáe.
It’s really too bad that Focus Features decided to run Amy Adams in Lead for Nocturnal Animals. She could have been very competitive for a nomination here to add to her likely Best Actress nomination for Arrival and the Academy really like its same year Lead/Supporting nominations for actresses.
Here are the 2017 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actress from The Gold Rush Gang for December:
Felicity Jones – A Monster Calls
Laura Linney – Nocturnal Animals
Laura Linney – Sully
Helen Mirren – Eye in the Sky
Molly Shannon – Other People
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Follow the updated Gold Rush Gang predictions in these Oscar categories here:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (the shortlist)