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2018 Oscar Predictions – THE SCREENPLAYS

Top: Wonderstruck, Call Me By Your Name, Lean on Pete Bottom: Downsizing, Kathryn Bigelow's Untitled Detroit Riots Project, Darkest Hour
Top: Wonderstruck, Call Me By Your Name, Lean on Pete
Bottom: Downsizing, Kathryn Bigelow’s Untitled Detroit Riots Project, Darkest Hour

Screenplay predictions can be a bit tricky this early on as we saw with this year’s Adapted Screenplay Oscar winner Moonlight, which won multiple Original Screenplay citations from critics as well as the Writers Guild of America but was deemed Adapted by the Academy deep into the Oscar season.

Both screenplay categories are top-heavy with Best Picture material at the moment, with Original Screenplay carrying the burden as a very packed category this season. It’s going to be quite a fight as we move through the season. The top two; Downsizing and Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit Riots Project are at just a one point separation. After that, Darkest Hour looks safe and then it’s another one-point race between Paul Thomas Anderson’s Fashion Project with Daniel Day-Lewis and Martin McDonaugh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Jordan Peele’s blockbuster horror/thriller Get Out lands at #6. Adapted is a bit thinner, with Wonderstruck, Call Me By Your Name and Lean on Pete clear leaders. The next three spots are held by Last Flag Flying, Mudbound and Molly’s Game in a very close race.

Last year the Gold Rush Gang didn’t start our screenplay predictions until May and had Moonlight (in Original), Fences, Lion, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land in our predictions with The Lobster and Hidden Figures on our Other Contenders list. These started taking shape near the end of summer and by the time Moonlight was moved to Adapted that category was locked in.

Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions in Adapted and Original Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang:

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE
GREG HOWARD
EVAN
KOST
JASON OSIASON
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT
MATT DINN
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Wonderstruck 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 6 1 1 93
2 Call Me By Your Name 2 2 2 2 1 5 2 5 3 2 84
3 Lean on Pete 5 3 6 3 4 2 3 2 2 3 77
4 Last Flag Flying 6 6 7 5 2 7 6 9 4 4 54
5 Mudbound 3 9 4 4 10 3 7 4 6 7 53
6 Molly’s Game 4 5 5 7 9 6 5 7 5 6 51
7 The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara 7 3 6 4 4 1 41
8 Annihilation 9 4 5 10 3 7 5 34
9 Disobedience 8 7 10 8 8 8 8 10 10 22
10 Victoria and Abdul 10 8 8 10 10 10 9 8 15
11 The Leisure Seeker 9 9 8 8 9 12
12 Blade Runner 2049 10 6 9 8
13 How to Talk to Girls at Parties 7 4
14 The Glass Castle 9 2
OTHER CONTENDERS
The Beguiled
The Mountain Between Us
The Snowman
You Were Never Really Here

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE
GREG HOWARD
EVAN
KOST
JASON OSIASON
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT
MATT DINN
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Downsizing 1 1 3 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 95
2 Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Project 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 94
3 Darkest Hour 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 5 73
4 Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Fashion Project 6 7 2 7 6 7 5 3 4 6 57
5 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 3 4 7 6 4 8 4 9 5 4 56
6 Get Out 5 8 6 5 7 6 9 10 9 7 38
7 Happy End 6 5 4 4 7 8 32
8 The Current War  9 9 9 5 5 6 7 7 31
9 Inner City (possibly 2018) 3 6 6 3 26
10 Dunkirk 7 10 8 10 9 8 8 10 18
11 mother! 10 9 8 10 5 13
12 Brad’s Status 8 10 9 6
13 The Killing of a Sacred Deer 8 3
13 Wind River 8 3
13 Baby Driver 10 9 3
16 Tully 10 1
16 Wonder Wheel 10 1
OTHER CONTENDERS
Breathe
The Greatest Showman
Hostiles
I, Tonya (likely 2018)
Kings
Marshall
Mary Magdalene
The Shape of Water
Suburbicon
Under the Silver Lake
Untitled A. A. Milne biopic

 

About Erik Anderson

Erik blames his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched them together since he opened his eyes. They also watched Miss Universe religiously every year (the pageantry!) and Erik came to the conclusion that the combination of these two things ultimately led him down the path to obsessing about awards and ACTRESSING. He began at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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