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2018 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (May) – Streep Still Queen; Claire Foy Makes a Big Debut, Margot Robbie Returns

Streep looks for Oscar nomination #21 while Claire Foy, Kirsten Dunst and Margot Robbie look for their first
Streep looks for Oscar nomination #21 while Claire Foy, Kirsten Dunst and Margot Robbie look for their first

Don’t ever, ever discount Meryl Streep. I’ve seen some blogs with the 3-time Oscar winner and 20-time nominee not even in their top 5 and I have to wonder, ‘Will you ever learn?’ While yes, not a frame of film has been shot (filming begins May 22nd under the title Nor’easter), there is nary a better ‘good on paper’ example this season than a combination that includes Streep, Spielberg and the Pentagon Papers. Full stop. Some feel it won’t be ready for 2017 but 20th Century Fox felt secure enough to date the film already (December 22nd) so that’s good enough for us for now.

Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul) remains a solid 2nd with Kate Winslet in Woody Allen’s latest, Wonder Wheel. She has a single #1 vote, from Jason Osiason, keeping Streep from a perfect score again this month. Jennifer Lawrence (mother!) and Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) hold court at #4 and #5 making that part of the top 5 exactly the same as last month.

The big debut this month is Claire Foy in Breathe. Just as her co-star Andrew Garfield makes his top 5 debut, Foy does as well, tying McDormand for the month. Foy is poised to have a very good awards year, with a Golden Globe win for her Netflix television series The Crown in January and Emmy nominations coming in July (with the awards show in September). Breathe has a prime October 13th release date which could prove an awards magnet date for the newcomer. She also represents the best shot as the category’s ‘first time’ nominee.

Kirsten Dunst also debuts, with Woodshock. There is no release date yet for the film but it’s being released by A24 so we’re keeping an eye on it and her.

Isabelle Huppert (Cannes entry Happy End), Halle Berry (Kings) and Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman) all move up a bit. Happy End and A Fantastic Woman are both Sony Pictures Classics, which is a bit overstuffed on Best Actress contenders at the moment, and Berry’s Kings has yet to secure a distributor (despite reports of A24 snatching it).

Quite a few entries are dropping this month, including Jessica Chastain in Molly’s Game (currently shooting) and newly minted Best Actress Oscar winner Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes). One wonders if BotS could be Stone’s The Danish Girl, earning her an afterglow nomination right after a win as it did for Eddie Redmayne last year.

Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) bounces back onto the list this month. Principal photography has wrapped and although we don’t have an official release date for the film yet, one of the film’s stars, Paul Walter Hauser, mentioned on a Nerdist podcast that the film would probably debut at TIFF this year. No confirmation though.

Looking to the Other Contenders list

Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Actress for May from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
Yellow – re-entry

BEST ACTRESS
ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE
GREG HOWARD
EVAN
KOST
JASON OSIASON
KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ
RICHARD
ANTHONY
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT
MATT DINN
TOTAL
POINTS
1 Meryl Streep – Untitled Steven Spielberg Pentagon Papers Project 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 99
2 Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul 2 4 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 86
3 Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel 3 6 3 3 1 3 2 5 3 3 78
4 Jennifer Lawrence – mother! 10 3 5 4 6 10 6 3 4 4 55
5 Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 8 2 8 8 4 9 5 4 5 5 52
5 Claire Foy – Breathe 5 5 5 5 5 4 6 6 6 52
7 Isabelle Huppert – Happy End 7 6 7 4 9 7 26
8 Halle Berry – Kings 4 7 6 7 8 23
9 Daniela Vega – A Fantastic Woman 6 10 8 8 10 10 10 9 17
10 Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game 8 9 9 9 7 10 14
11 Helen Mirren – The Leisure Seeker 4 8 8 13
12 Rooney Mara – Mary Magdalene 7 9 7 9 12
13 Julianne Moore – Suburbicon 6 8 8
14 Kirsten Dunst – Woodshock 7 4
14 Margot Robbie – I, Tonya (possibly 2018) 7 4
16 Rachel Weisz – Disobedience 10 10 10 3
17 Eva Green – Based on a True Story 9 2
17 Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes 9 2
OTHER CONTENDERS
Alicia Vikander – Submergence
Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Annette Bening – The Seagull
Brie Larson – The Glass Castle
Charlize Theron – Tully
Diane Keaton – Hampstead
Emma Thompson – The Children Act
Eva Green – Euphoria
Glenn Close – The Wife
Helena Bonham Carter – 55 Steps
Jessica Chastain – Woman Walks Ahead
Julia Roberts – Wonder
Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck
Kate Beckinsale – The Only Living Boy in New York
Kate Winslet – The Mountain Between Us
Keira Knightley – The Aftermath
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Michelle Pfeiffer – Where is Kyra?
Millicent Simmonds – Wonderstruck
Nicole Kidman – The Beguiled
Nicole Kidman – The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Rachel Weisz – My Cousin Rachel
Reese Witherspoon – Home Again
Sally Hawkins – Maudie
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
Saoirse Ronan – On Chesil Beach

 

About Erik Anderson

Erik blames his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched them together since he opened his eyes. They also watched Miss Universe religiously every year (the pageantry!) and Erik came to the conclusion that the combination of these two things ultimately led him down the path to obsessing about awards and ACTRESSING. He began at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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