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2018 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (June) – Ben Mendelsohn, Sterling K. Brown Rise; Big Debut for Willem Dafoe

Things are looking bright for Ben Mendelsohn this month. The Emmy winner’s film, Darkest Hour, moved up in Best Picture and Best Director, still holds onto the #1 in Best Actor (Gary Oldman) and he reaches his highest placement this month, landing at #2. Worth noting, his point total is actually three points lower than last month so while his rankings from individual GRG members was a bit lower, in relation to how much other contenders fell, he rises.

A whopping seven performances are in the red this month, including a trio of last month’s top 5: Steve Buscemi (Lean on Pete) drops one spot to #3, Michael Shannon (The Current War) drops one spot and Colin Farrell (Inner City) also drops one.

That makes the moves from the guys in green all the more important. Emmy winner Sterling K. Brown (Marshall) works his way into the top 10 after two months stuck at #12. With three other black actors starting to drop (Jason Mitchell, Mudbound; John Boyega, Detroit and Idris Elba, Molly’s Game) that just leaves Brown and Laurence Fishburne (Last Flag Flying) to avoid a SupportingActorSoWhite scenario.

There are two debuts this month; one is huge, one a whimper. Cannes hit The Florida Project, from Sean Baker (Tangerine) got scooped up by A24 and with it come Willem Dafoe’s shot at his third Supporting Actor Oscar nomination. He starts off huge at #4 this month, including a #1 placement from GRG member Kenneth Polishchuk. Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes) is the other debut at #15. He’s also been on the low end of the Best Actor contenders but this is his first appearance in Supporting for the film.

Something I’ll be keeping an eye on is the newly announced cast of Steven Spielberg’s The Papers. While Hanks and Streep are the clear leads we could see a supporting player or two find their way in a la Spotlight. So watch out for Bradley Whitford or Bob Odenkirk or even Michael Stuhlbarg. But I don’t see him in for this over Call Me By Your Name so his presence in The Papers could really just solidify his place as the Supporting Actor frontrunner similar to Mahershala Ali having both Hidden Figures and Moonlight and winning everything for the latter.

Dropping off the list this month are the bottom four from last month: Oscar Isaac (Suburbicon), Ben Stiller (The Meyerowitz Stories), Anthony Mackie (Detroit) and Joaquin Phoenix (Mary Magdalene).

Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actor for June from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry

1 Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 98
2 Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour 3 7 3 3 7 3 4 1 4 7 68
3 Steve Buscemi – Lean on Pete 2 4 5 7 4 4 3 5 5 5 66
4 Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project 9 2 2 2 1 8 3 3 58
5 Michael Shannon – The Current War 6 8 2 4 8 6 7 4 2 8 55
6 Colin Farrell – Inner City (possibly 2018) 3 3 2 3 6 2 47
7 Laurence Fishburne – Last Flag Flying 7 5 8 5 5 7 5 9 4 44
8 Jason Mitchell – Mudbound 4 10 4 6 5 6 7 7 9 41
9 Sterling K. Brown – Marshall 5 6 9 10 9 16
10 Javier Bardem – mother! 7 8 9 8 8 15
11 John Boyega – Detroit 8 9 9 10 8 10 10 13
12 Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 6 10 6 11
13 Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name 6 6 10
14 Idris Elba – Molly’s Game 10 10 9 9 10 7
15 Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes 10 1
Alessandro Nivola – Disobedience
Ali Fazal – Victoria and Abdul
Anthony Mackie – Detroit
Ben Stiller – The Meyerowitz Stories
Bob Odenkirk – The Papers
Bradley Whitford – The Papers
Chiwetel Ejiofor – Mary Magdalene
Daniel Craig – Logan Lucky
Domhnall Gleeson – mother!
Dustin Hoffman – The Meyerowitz Stories
Ed Harris – mother!
Garrett Hedlund – Mudbound
Harrison Ford – Blade Runner 2049
Jacob Tremblay – Wonder
Joaquin Phoenix – Mary Magdalene
Kevin Costner – Molly’s Game
Kevin Hart – Untouchable
Mark Rylance – Dunkirk
Michael Stuhlbarg – The Papers
Oscar Isaac – Suburbicon
Stanley Tucci – The Children Act
Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying
Will Poulter – Detroit
Woody Harrelson – The Glass Castle
Zac Efron – The Greatest Showman

About Erik Anderson

Erik thanks his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards together since he was in the single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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