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2018 Oscar Predictions: THE SCREENPLAYS (June)

Call Me By Your Name and The Papers have commanding leads in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay, respectively. Each outnumber their #2 rivals by exactly 20 points with both films in the top 5 for Best Picture (with The Papers at #1) an in Best Director Spielberg sits in the top spot while CMBYN‘s Luca Guadagnino is just outside the top 5 by a single point.

In Adapted Screenplay, Wonderstruck holds onto top 5 status despite falling everywhere else with Last Flag Flying and Mudbound filling out the top spots. It’s a big jump after that with the 6-10 slots nearly 30 points below including The Beguiled, Blade Runner 2049 and Victoria and Abdul.

You can follow the updated Screenplay predictions as they evolve throughout the month right here. These are the official 2018 Oscar Predictions for June in Adapted and Original Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE GREG HOWARD EVAN
KOST
JASON OSIASON KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ RICHARD
ANTHONY
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT MATT DINN TOTAL
POINTS
1 Call Me By Your Name 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 99
2 Lean on Pete 3 3 1 7 3 4 3 2 2 3 79
3 Last Flag Flying 5 2 4 4 2 6 2 3 3 2 77
4 Wonderstruck 2 6 2 4 2 4 6 4 4 65
5 Mudbound 4 7 3 3 8 3 5 4 5 5 63
6 The Death of Stalin 7 4 10 6 6 8 6 6 7 39
7 Molly’s Game 8 9 5 10 9 7 7 7 6 31
8 Disobedience 10 5 8 5 9 5 10 10 26
9 Victoria and Abdul 8 6 9 10 8 10 8 8 21
10 Beguiled, The 9 8 5 9 5 10 20
11 Blade Runner 2049 6  9 8 7  8 17
12 Leisure Seeker, The 7 10 9 9 9 11
13 Thoroughbred 10 7 5
OTHER CONTENDERS
Glass Castle, The
How to Talk to Girls at Parties
Mountain Between Us, The
Snowman, The
Stronger
Thank You For Your Service
Untouchable
Wonder
You Were Never Really Here

Original Screenplay, after the #1 spot, is shaping up to be quite competitive this year. Detroit, Darkest Hour and Get Out stand within a point of each other and then Inner City and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri tie for 5th. The Florida Project, from Sean Baker, makes a strong showing at #7 after hitting the Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress charts this month. The Killing of a Sacred Deer, which tied for the Screenplay win at the Cannes Film Festival last month, earns a place at #8. Interestingly, the film it tied with, You Were Never Really Here (which also won Joaquin Phoenix Best Actor) didn’t gain any traction for that win in our Adapted Screenplay predictions.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE GREG HOWARD EVAN
KOST
JASON OSIASON KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ RICHARD
ANTHONY
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT MATT DINN TOTAL
POINTS
1 The Papers 1 2 2 2 3 1 2 1 1 3 92
2 Detroit 2 7 1 5 8 3 4 4 2 2 72
3 Darkest Hour 5 5 3 3 4 6 3 2 3 5 71
3 Get Out 3 1 6 1 2 4 5 7 6 4 71
5 Inner City (possibly 2018) 4 1 1 3 4 1 52
5 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7 3 5 6 7 8 6 5 5 6 52
7 The Florida Project 6 4 5 2 7 7 7 39
8 Killing of a Sacred Deer, The 4 8 8 7 7 10 9 8 27
9 Suburbicon 6 10 4 8 5 9 10 25
10 Current War, The 10 9 6 8 6 16
11 Downsizing 9 9 9 8 9
12 mother! 10 7 9 7
12 Phantom Thread 9 8 9 7
14 Wonder Wheel 10 10 10 10 4
15 Brad’s Status 9 10 3
15 Greatest Showman, The 8 3
OTHER CONTENDERS
Baby Driver
Breathe
Dunkirk
Goodbye Christopher Robin
Happy End
Hostiles
I, Tonya (possibly 2018)
Kings
Marshall
Mary Magdalene
Meyerowitz Stories, The
Novitiate
Shape of Water, The
Under the Silver Lake
Wind River

About Erik Anderson

Erik blames his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched them together since he opened his eyes. They also watched Miss Universe religiously every year (the pageantry!) and Erik came to the conclusion that the combination of these two things ultimately led him down the path to obsessing about awards and ACTRESSING. He began at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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