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2018 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (July) – Dafoe, Boyega Rocket Up; Poulter, Shannon Debut

Now here is a category that is seeing some change from last month. While Michael Stuhlbarg is still #1 for Call Me By Your Name, the rest of the top five looks nothing like June. Gone are Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour) after peaking at #2, Steve Buscemi (Lean on Pete) and Michael Shannon (The Current War). To break those down, word is that Darkest Hour may be looking at Gary Oldman as the sole acting nominee. Coattail nominations happen all the time and that was a big part of the reason Mendelsohn was a factor in supporting actor so he could very well return to the top 5. For Buscemi and Shannon, a lack of buzz or visibility into their films is hurting their stamina this summer. Interestingly, Shannon enters the chart with another film, Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water. For Buscemi, A24 has been giving release dates left and right to nearly their entire 2017 slate…except Lean on Pete. Why is that? Early on many of us felt this would be their #1 this year but it definitely isn’t. Maybe they’re going to hold it for 2018 to make room for their most recent acquisition – The Florida Project. Willem Dafoe, who debuted on the chart last month at #4 post-Cannes, moves up to #2 this month and the film and its director Sean Baker are now top tier contenders.

Colin Farrell is having a great year and could be looking at his first Oscar nomination if the Dan Gilroy thriller Roman Israel, Esq. gets the 2017 release Sony is promising. With his Cannes-winning films The Beguiled this summer and The Killing of a Sacred Deer coming in November, Farrell is looking at three performances that could net him crucial critics’ citations that reward multiple films (like the National Society of Film Critics). In terms of Oscar though, voters would have to coalesce around a single film and he could dilute his own votes. But, I would put my money on this being his Oscar vehicle.

Laurence Fishburne could be looking at his first Oscar nomination in 20 years (for 1996’s What’s Love Got to Do With It) with Last Flag Flying from Richard Linklater and Amazon. He joins Bryan Cranston this month at a top 5 contender (Cranston in Best Actor).

The big mover this month is John Boyega in Detroit. He rockets from #11 to #5 this month and even shows up on the Best Actor chart. It’s still unclear if the film is an ensemble film across the board or if Boyega is the true lead but if it’s borderline, Annapurna could push him here and increase his nomination chances. Boyega is joined this month by one of his co-stars, Will Poulter, who is said to give a superb, and very villainous, performance that the Oscars love in this category.

Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actor for July from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry

1 Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 97
2 Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 83
3 Colin Farrell – Roman Israel, Esq. 3 3 3 3 4 3 2 56
3 Laurence Fishburne – Last Flag Flying 4 4 8 4 4 5 4 6 4 56
5 John Boyega – Detroit 3 5 9 7 4 5 3 5 47
6 Jason Mitchell – Mudbound 6 8 4 6 10 6 6 9 7 8 40
7 Steve Buscemi – Lean on Pete 8 6 5 10 5 7 7 6 7 38
8 Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour 3 3 10 5 4 30
9 Sterling K. Brown – Marshall 5 6 9 8 10 9 19
10 Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name 9 8 8 9 9 8 10 9 18
11 Michael Shannon – The Current War 2 10 5 16
11 Javier Bardem – mother! 7 5 8 8 16
13 Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7 9 7 6 15
14 Will Poulter – Detroit 7 10 5 7
15 Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water 9 7 10 4
16 Idris Elba – Molly’s Game 10 10 10 3
17 Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes 10 1
Alessandro Nivola – Disobedience
Ali Fazal – Victoria and Abdul
Anthony Mackie – Detroit
Armie Hammer – Final Portrait
Ben Stiller – The Meyerowitz Stories
Bob Odenkirk – The Papers
Bradley Whitford – The Papers
Charlie Plummer – All the Money in the World
Chiwetel Ejiofor – Mary Magdalene
Daniel Craig – Logan Lucky
Domhnall Gleeson – mother!
Dustin Hoffman – The Meyerowitz Stories
Ed Harris – mother!
Garrett Hedlund – Mudbound
Harrison Ford – Blade Runner 2049
Jacob Tremblay – Wonder
Joaquin Phoenix – Mary Magdalene
Kevin Costner – Molly’s Game
Kevin Spacey – All the Money in the World
Mark Rylance – Dunkirk
Mark Wahlberg – All the Money in the World
Michael Stuhlbarg – The Papers
Oscar Isaac – Suburbicon
Stanley Tucci – The Children Act
Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying
Woody Harrelson – The Glass Castle

About Erik Anderson

Erik thanks his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards together since he was in the single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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