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2018 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (July) – Can Anyone Stop Melissa Leo? Hunter, Spencer, Prince Might

Things are looking very good for Melissa Leo to snag her second Best Supporting Actress Oscar with Sony Pictures Classics anointing her nun drama Novitiate with a heavenly October 27th release date. In all, the top 5 is the same as last month but Leo now posts a massive 32-point lead over her competition at #2, Michelle Pfeiffer in mother! That’s a bigger lead than any leader on our acting charts at the moment and it could spell gold for her come next March. And really, who doesn’t want another round of brilliant campaigning from Leo? Her ‘Consider’ ads for The Fighter, even when she was the clear frontrunner to win, were the most iconic since Diane Ladd’s grass roots spaghetti dinners that got her a supporting actress nomination for Wild at Heart in 1991.

Overall, it was a good month for a handful of supporting actress contenders who found themselves on an upward trajectory. None more so than young Brooklynn Prince. The pint-sized star of The Florida Project debuted last month at #15 and this month blasts all the way up to #6 and just two points outside of the top five. Incredible for such a young newcomer but our gang thinks The Florida Project is A24’s main push this season and will be a major Oscar player.

Julianne Moore moves up a bit with Suburbicon after a lack of faith in Wonderstruck moved those votes over and Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread) makes a mysterious move upwards as well. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) enters the top 3 for the first time and Hong Chau (Downsizing) finds herself climbing back up the charts after a disastrous test screening scared off most of the Gold Rush Gang.

Nicole Kidman takes up two spots again this month, for The Killing of a Sacred Deer and The Beguiled, but bleeds her own support a bit and finds herself down from last month for both films. Margot Robbie plummets from #7 last month to #19 this month with Goodbye Christopher Robin.

New entries this month include Oscar winners Holly Hunter (The Big Sick) and Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water), and, in a weird twist, Catherine Keener replaces Allison Williams in Get Out.

Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actress for July from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry

SUPPORTING ACTRESS ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE GREG HOWARD EVAN
KOST
JASON OSIASON KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ RICHARD
ANTHONY
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT MATT DINN TOTAL
POINTS
1 Melissa Leo – Novitiate 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 99
2 Michelle Pfeiffer – mother! 8 4 2 2 8 2 2 2 2 67
3 Mary J. Blige – Mudbound 4 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 6 50
4 Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour 2 2 8 3 8 3 3 48
5 Allison Janney – I, Tonya (possibly 2018) 4 7 9 7 3 4 8 4 42
6 Brooklynn Prince – The Florida Project 6 4 3 4 4 5 40
7 Julianne Moore – Suburbicon 3 5 1 5 10 8 34
8 Vicky Krieps – Phantom Thread 2 8 4 7 3 31
9 Rachel McAdams – Disobedience 8 5 6 9 6 9 9 25
10 Nicole Kidman – The Killing of a Sacred Deer 7 3 10 7 7 21
11 Holly Hunter – The Big Sick 10 5 5 6 18
12 Hong Chau – Downsizing 6 3 10 14
13 Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water 5 5 10 13
14 Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman 9 9 4 11
14 Nicole Kidman – The Beguiled 3 9 10 11
16 Carmen Ejogo – Roman Israel, Esq. 5 8 9
17 Millicent Simmonds – Wonderstruck 9 8 10 10 7
18 Chloë Sevigny – Lean on Pete 6 5
19 Margot Robbie – Goodbye Christopher Robin 9 2
19 Catherine Keener – Get Out 9 2
21 Katherine Waterston – The Current War 10 1
21 Kaela Settle – The Greatest Showman 10 1
OTHER CONTENDERS
Alison Brie – The Papers
Allison Williams – Get Out
Brie Larson – The Glass Castle
Carrie Coon – The Papers
Diana Rigg – Breathe
Isabelle Huppert – Happy End
Judi Dench – Murder on the Orient Express
Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck
Julie Walters – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel
Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
Naomi Watts – The Glass Castle
Rachel Weisz – Disobedience
Rebecca Ferguson – The Greatest Showman
Riley Keough – Under the Silver Lake
Rosamund Pike – Entebbe
Sarah Paulson – The Papers
Tatiana Maslany – Stronger
Cathy Moriarty – Patti Cake$
Vanessa Redgrave – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Zendaya – The Greatest Showman

About Erik Anderson

Erik blames his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched them together since he opened his eyes. They also watched Miss Universe religiously every year (the pageantry!) and Erik came to the conclusion that the combination of these two things ultimately led him down the path to obsessing about awards and ACTRESSING. He began at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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One comment

  1. Mystified that nobody has fixed the fact that Kirsten Dunst will be in Supporting for The Beguiled not Nicole Kidman. It’s inconceivable that they would put Kidman in Supporting because Dunst has a much better shot—it won’t be category fraud for Dunst, and AwardsCircuit, Indiewire and many others are already putting her in frontrunner status. She looks in at least as good a position as Holly Hunter, if not better because she’s received far more raves and is hot for a first nomination. Besides if the Academy recognizes The Beguiled at all, it will be Dunst and Philippe Le Sourd, that’s it.