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2018 Oscar Predictions – BEST ACTRESS (August): Annette Bening, Sally Hawkins Storm the Chart

After making debuts last month on the low levels of the Best Actress chart, Annette Bening (Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool) and Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water) make huge jumps, tying for the #7 slot this month against a top 6 that’s been largely unmovable.

For Bening, the rise comes off the news that Sony Pictures Classics is circling her film for distribution (there is no deal in place at the time of this piece). SPC has proven itself experts at Best Actress nominations and wins, most recently with a first-time nomination for Isabelle Huppert in Elle this year and their biggest get to date – Julianne Moore’s overdue Oscar win for 2014’s Still Alice. Bening definitely falls into the Moore category as an over-50, multi-nominated actress with a respected reputation whose time has come.

For Sally Hawkins, her rise from a single vote last month (I should note that both Bening and Hawkins’ single votes last month were from yours truly) to being a major contender fits perfectly with the rise of her film, The Shape of Water, elsewhere on the charts where it is in the top 5 in both Best Picture and Best Director for August.

With that said, Meryl Streep (The Papers) remains a force at #1 and Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel) inches up to #2 on word that her performance is ‘Blue Jasmine’ level. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) and Claire Foy (Breathe) hold on to their top 5 status but Jennifer Lawrence (mother!) takes a tumble outside the top 5 despite the arrival of a teaser for her secretive film. Julianne Moore drops out completely after the response to the trailer for Suburbicon is met with more ‘meh’ than ‘yay’ but also that she splits her vote in the Supporting Actress category.

The lone blue in a sea of red this month is Oscar nominee Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird, actress Greta Gerwig’s directorial debut. She takes flight at #11.

Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Actress for August from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry

BEST ACTRESS ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE GREG HOWARD EVAN
KOST
JASON OSIASON KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ RICHARD
ANTHONY
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT MATT DINN TOTAL
POINTS
1 Meryl Streep – The Papers 2 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 96
2 Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel 4 4 3 3 1 3 1 4 2 3 82
3 Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul 3 6 2 2 8 2 6 2 3 2 74
4 Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7 2 4 7 4 6 8 3 5 5 59
4 Claire Foy – Breathe 5 5 8 5 5 4 3 6 6 4 59
6 Jennifer Lawrence – mother! 9 5 6 2 7 5 8 4 7 46
7 Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool 1 7 4 10 4 5 8 38
7 Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water 8 3 9 6 8 7 7 7 6 38
9 Daniela Vega – A Fantastic Woman 6 10 8 7 5 9 9 9 8 28
10 Rooney Mara – Mary Magdalene 10 7 10 9 10 9
11 Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird 8 9 10 10 10 8
12 Helen Mirren – The Leisure Seeker 6 5
13 Rachel Weisz – Disobedience 9 10 3
13 Margot Robbie – I, Tonya (possibly 2018) 9 10 3
15 Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes 9 2
16 Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game 10 1
OTHER CONTENDERS
Alicia Vikander – Submergence
Brie Larson – The Glass Castle
Carey Mulligan – Mudbound
Diane Keaton – Hampstead
Diane Kruger – In the Fade
Emma Thompson – The Children Act
Eva Green – Based on a True Story
Eva Green – Euphoria
Glenn Close – The Wife
Halle Berry – Kings
Helena Bonham Carter – 55 Steps
Isabelle Huppert – Happy End
Jessica Chastain – Woman Walks Ahead
Julia Roberts – Wonder
Julianne Moore – Suburbicon
Kate Beckinsale – The Only Living Boy in New York
Kate Winslet – The Mountain Between Us
Keira Knightley – The Aftermath
Kirsten Dunst – Woodshock
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Michelle Pfeiffer – Where is Kyra?
Michelle Williams – All the Money in the World
Millicent Simmonds – Wonderstruck
Nicole Kidman – The Beguiled
Rachel Weisz – My Cousin Rachel
Sally Hawkins – Maudie

About Erik Anderson

Erik blames his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched them together since he opened his eyes. They also watched Miss Universe religiously every year (the pageantry!) and Erik came to the conclusion that the combination of these two things ultimately led him down the path to obsessing about awards and ACTRESSING. He began at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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