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2018 Oscar Predictions – THE SCREENPLAYS (August): Darkest Hour Goes Adapted, The Papers Leads Original

A big change this month with a category change for a major release. Darkest Hour, which had been a contender in Original Screenplay is being moved to Adapted based on this article which details screenwriter Anthony McCarten’s own book being the source material for the film. The book, which is being published by Viking, comes out in hardcover in October (a month ahead of the film’s U.S. release) and in paperback in December. It should be noted that I have not received official confirmation on this category placement from Focus Features as of this writing but I wanted the Gold Rush Gang to get ahead of the curve here. With this move, Darkest Hour debuts at #6 this month in Adapted Screenplay.[UPDATE: the previous article was incorrect and corrected by Viking. Here is the update.] The top three hold strong and The Death of Stalin, from Armando Iannucci, moves into the top 5.

But Darkest Hour isn’t the only debut this month, Hostiles with Christian Bale and Annette Bening’s potential Oscar vehicle Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool come in at #8 and #15, respectively.

These are the official 2018 Oscar Predictions for August in Adapted Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE GREG HOWARD EVAN
KOST
JASON OSIASON KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ RICHARD
ANTHONY
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT MATT DINN TOTAL
POINTS
1 Call Me By Your Name 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 99
2 Last Flag Flying 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 1 88
3 Mudbound 3 3 2 4 5 4 4 4 3 4 74
4 The Death of Stalin 4 6 4 6 7 7 3 5 6 5 57
5 Wonderstruck 6 9 10 5 4 2 5 7 4 6 52
6 Darkest Hour 5 4 3 5 2 5 3 50
7 Lean on Pete 7 7 7 3 6 6 6 7 7 43
8 Victoria and Abdul 7 6 9 10 9 7 9 8 23
9 Molly’s Game 8 5 10 8 8 16
10 Disobedience 9 8 10 9 10 10 10 11
11 The Disaster Artist 10 10 8 8 9 10
12 Blade Runner 2049 9 8 8 10 9
13 Hostiles 8 6 8
14 Annihilation 5 6
15 The 15:17 to Paris 9 2
15 Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool 9 2
OTHER CONTENDERS
The Beguiled
The Glass Castle
How to Talk to Girls at Parties
The Leisure Seeker
The Mountain Between Us
The Snowman
Stronger
Thank You For Your Service
Thoroughbred
Wonder
You Were Never Really Here

The move to Adapted by Darkest Hour opened the door for most of last month’s top 5 to move up and they did. The Papers still holds onto the top spot but Get Out is now just behind at #2 and after debuting at #8 in July, The Shape of Water lands at #4 for August, part of its major, across the board chart move this month. Only Detroit, which opened in 20 theaters last weekend and goes wide tomorrow, falls and drops out of the top 5.

The Big Sick, Phantom Thread and Wonder Wheel see bumps up this month and Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird is August’s sole debut in Original Screenplay.

These are the official 2018 Oscar Predictions for August in Original Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE GREG HOWARD EVAN
KOST
JASON OSIASON KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ RICHARD
ANTHONY
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT MATT DINN TOTAL
POINTS
1 The Papers 1 3 2 2 3 1 2 1 1 2 92
2 Get Out 2 1 6 1 2 2 3 2 3 3 85
3 Roman Israel, Esq. 5 4 4 4 4 1 8 2 1 66
4 The Shape of Water 4 2 7 6 1 7 4 4 6 4 65
5 The Florida Project 3 9 3 3 8 3 5 9 5 6 56
6 Detroit 6 1 5 5 7 3 4 7 50
7 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 8 5 9 10 7 6 6 5 7 5 42
8 The Big Sick 7 6 7 10 8 9 7 8 8 29
9 Phantom Thread 7 8 5 10 10 10 9 18
10 Wonder Wheel 9 8 9 6 10 13
11 Suburbicon 4 9 9
12 Lady Bird 10 6 6
13 The Killing of a Sacred Deer 10 8 10 5
14 Downsizing 10 9 3
OTHER CONTENDERS
All the Money in the World
Baby Driver
Brad’s Status
Breathe
The Current War
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
Goodbye Christopher Robin
Happy End
Hostiles
I, Tonya (possibly 2018)
Kings
Marshall
Mary Magdalene
The Meyerowitz Stories
mother!
Novitiate
Under the Silver Lake
Wind River

About Erik Anderson

Erik blames his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched them together since he opened his eyes. They also watched Miss Universe religiously every year (the pageantry!) and Erik came to the conclusion that the combination of these two things ultimately led him down the path to obsessing about awards and ACTRESSING. He began at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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