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2018 Oscar Predictions: THE SCREENPLAYS (October) – Call Me By Your Name, Three Billboards Lead

The lead for Call Me By Your Name in Adapted Screenplay actually managed to get stronger this month, now securing a perfect score of 100. Incredibly, it’s the only film that doesn’t make some move this month Mudbound reaches a high point to land at #2 as Last Flag Flying dips to #3.

Two films make major moves into the top five: Molly’s Game, up from #13 and Stronger, up from a #18 debut last month. The Disaster Artist moves up from #7.

Darkest Hour is removed from this category after confirmation that it will be submitted in Original for all awards its eligible for. But the Academy has made its own decision here before, just last season in fact, with the eventual winner Moonlight. But, since the screenplay was written and the film was shot before the book was written it would be a hard case to prove that it’s adapted.

The Death of Stalin falls here as it seems IFC will be holding the film until 2018 (no word on a 2017 qualifying release at this time). Two comic book films make a surprise showing here: Logan and Wonder Woman. While the screenplays for both are good (and certainly both films’ reviews) it speaks to how bleak this category is in search of contenders.

These are the official 2018 Oscar Predictions for October in Adapted Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE GREG HOWARD EVAN
KOST
JASON OSIASON KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ RICHARD
ANTHONY
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT MATT DINN TOTAL
POINTS
1 Call Me By Your Name 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100
2 Mudbound 2 3 2 3 4 2 3 3 3 2 83
3 Last Flag Flying 3 4 3 2 2 4 2 9 2 5 74
4 Molly’s Game 5 5 4 5 3 3 6 2 4 4 69
5 Disaster Artist, The 4 2 5 6 7 5 5 4 5 3 64
6 Stronger 6 6 7 8 9 6 6 6 6 39
6 Blade Runner 2049 7 7 6 7 8 8 9 5 7 7 39
8 Wonderstruck 8 9 9 10 7 7 8 8 8 25
9 Death of Stalin, The 4 5 4 7 24
10 Victoria and Abdul 9 8 10 9 8 10 12
11 All the Money in the World 10 8 9 10 7
12 Logan 10 6 6
13 Wonder Woman 9 9 4
14 Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool 8 3
15 Beguiled, The 10 10 2
16 The 15:17 to Paris  10 1

OTHER CONTENDERS
Disobedience
The Leisure Seeker
Thank You For Your Service
Wonder

For the first time this season we have a new #1 in Original Screenplay. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri tops The Post on the strength of the film’s festival plays and major wins.

Darkest Hour shows up in fuller force here this month but out of the top 5. Lady Bird enjoys its first month there.

Roman J. Israel, Esq. tumbles not just out of the top 5 from last month but all the way down into the Other Contenders list. Downsizing falls to there as well.

Debuts this month include Battle of the Sexes, I, Tonya and Wind River as well as the return of Dunkirk.

Unlike Adapted Screenplay, Original is looking like the most competitive in many years. There will be significant snubs no matter who makes it in to Oscar’s final five.

These are the official 2018 Oscar Predictions for October in Original Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
Orange – re-entry

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE GREG HOWARD EVAN
KOST
JASON OSIASON KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ RICHARD
ANTHONY
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT MATT DINN TOTAL
POINTS
1 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 2 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 96
2 The Post 4 3 1 2 3 1 4 2 2 3 85
3 Get Out 3 2 4 3 2 3 2 4 3 2 82
4 The Shape of Water 1 4 2 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 77
5 Lady Bird 7 5 6 7 5 6 5 8 5 5 51
6 The Florida Project 6 8 5 5 7 7 6 7 6 7 46
7 The Big Sick 8 6 8 6 6 5 8 6 7 6 44
8 Darkest Hour 5 7 7 8 9 8 7 5 8 8 38
9 Phantom Thread 9 9 9 8 9 10 9 10 9 17
10 Wonder Wheel 10 9 10 9 10 7
11 I, Tonya 10 10 10 3
12 Wind River 9 2
13 Battle of the Sexes 10 1
13 Dunkirk 10 1

OTHER CONTENDERS
Baby Driver
Brad’s Status
Breathe
The Current War
Detroit
Downsizing
The Greatest Showman
Goodbye Christopher Robin
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Marshall
The Meyerowitz Stories
mother!
Novitiate
Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Suburbicon

About Erik Anderson

Erik blames his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched them together since he opened his eyes. They also watched Miss Universe religiously every year (the pageantry!) and Erik came to the conclusion that the combination of these two things ultimately led him down the path to obsessing about awards and ACTRESSING. He began at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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