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2018 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (November)

If there’s a theme to this category this year it’s all about moms. Good moms, bad moms, really bad moms and even a Mother.

As if the teaser weren’t enough, the red-band trailer for I, Tonya dropped this week and with it the acid-tongued profanity from our #1 Supporting Actress contender, Allison Janney. Sitting atop with a perfect score of 100 (up from 99 last month), Janney could be an unstoppable force this season. But then, we thought that about Melissa Leo (Novitiate) for months. The truth is, timing is everything. Leo had all the buzz since Sundance and made sense throughout the summer. Then I, Tonya looked like it was going to end up a 2017 release and the first looks at Janney came out and we were hooked.

Lady Bird‘s mom Laurie Metcalf and The Big Sick‘s Holly Hunter swap spots this month as Lady Bird‘s reviews are just through the roof ahead of its November 3 release. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water) also remains a solid contender at #4. Speaking of Leo, the former #1 falls again this month, down one more spot to #7. Her film just opened last week to good reviews but dismal box office, even for an arthouse pic. Sony Classics is going to have to put the work in for her but then, we know Leo can do it herself if she really wants it.

But three big changes happened last month. First, The Florida Project‘s 7-year old breakout star Brooklynn Prince was officially submitted as Lead by A24 for the Screen Actors Guild Awards (and presumably with all other awards bodies) so she’s out of Supporting Actress. For many this was a relief, mostly because they thought sticking her here was classic category fraud of a child performance that is, for most intents and purposes, a lead role. Even in an ensemble like The Florida Project we see things through Prince’s eyes more than anyone so keep an eye out for her in Best Actress. One good thing this does it open the door for one of the film’s other newcomers, Bria Vinaite, who plays Prince’s mom. She enters the race at #12.

The second was the incredible and surprising rise of Mudbound‘s Mary J. Blige. I’ve been on Team Blige for a while and she was languishing in the bottom of the top 10 for most of the year but this month she rockets into the top 5 for the first time. Netflix is trying its damnedest to her and the film in contention as a real Oscar player despite refusing to due a traditional theatrical rollout that isn’t day and date with the streaming release. The film is hitting multiple festivals, its won two Audience Awards and is definitely in the conversation. It’s really up to the Academy on whether or not they’ll let the streamer into the party or not. Still, it’s great news for Blige so we’ll see where this goes for her.

Finally, Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread – watch the trailer here) was revealed to be submitted and pushed as lead for the Paul Thomas Anderson fashion flick with Lesley Manville in supporting. Manville is one of this month’s debuts, Krieps will show up in Best Actress.

One final debut this month and it’s Alison Brie for The Post. There isn’t a bigger ‘up in the air’ film this season than The Post and at this point is the only film without at least a trailer to go off of. What we do have, finally, is the first official still (check it out here). Ironically, the still is a major ensemble shot with virtually all of the cast…except Alison Brie. It’s actually Carrie Coon that gets the foreground and it would seem that, if there were a supporting actress contender here, Coon would be it.

Other moves up include Tatiana Maslany for Stronger (who hits a high at #6) and Hong Chau (Downsizing) at #8. Catherine Keener (Get Out) returns to the chart at #10 on the news that Allison Williams will be pushed lead.

I’m still hoping Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip) gets some love somewhere this awards season but Universal needs to step up its campaign game and help get her there. She’s hosting Saturday Night Live on November 11th and that’s a really good start.

Falling off the chart this month are Claire Foy (Breathe) after an anemic box office start and Juno Temple (Wonder Wheel).

2018 Oscar Predictions (November): Supporting ActorForeign Language Film | Animated FeatureAdapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay | Film Editing and Cinematography | Production Design and Costume Design | Visual Effects and Makeup & Hairstyling | Sound Editing and Sound Mixing | Original Score and Original Song

Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actress for November from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry/new category
Orange – re-entry

SUPPORTING ACTRESS ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE GREG HOWARD EVAN
KOST
JASON OSIASON KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ RICHARD
ANTHONY
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT MATT DINN TOTAL
POINTS
1 Allison Janney – I, Tonya 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100
2 Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 4 2 2 84
3 Holly Hunter – The Big Sick 2 3 4 2 4 3 2 2 3 3 82
4 Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water 4 5 2 4 6 4 4 3 5 4 69
5 Mary J. Blige – Mudbound 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 5 58
6 Tatiana Maslany – Stronger 6 6 9 6 6 7 5 6 7 41
7 Melissa Leo – Novitiate 9 8 7 3 7 6 9 4 6 40
8 Hong Chau – Downsizing 7 8 10 10 10 10 9 7 9 9 21
9 Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour 8 6 8 8 8 8 20
10 Catherine Keener – Get Out 10 8 10 8 8
10 Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread 10 7 7 9 7 10 10 10 18
12 Bria Vinaite – The Florida Project 9 8 9 7
13 Alison Brie – The Post 9 2

OTHER CONTENDERS
Andrea Riseborough – Battle of the Sexes
Brooklynn Prince – The Florida Project
Carey Mulligan – Mudbound
Carmen Ejogo – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Carrie Coon – The Post
Cicely Tyson – Last Flag Flying
Claire Foy – Breathe
Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck
Julie Walters – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel
Kaela Settle – The Greatest Showman
Lily James – Darkest Hour
Margot Robbie – Goodbye Christopher Robin
Michelle Pfeiffer – mother!
Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman
Millicent Simmonds – Wonderstruck
Nicole Kidman – The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Rebecca Ferguson – The Greatest Showman
Rosamund Pike – Hostiles
Sarah Paulson – The Post
Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip
Zendaya – The Greatest Showman

About Erik Anderson

Erik blames his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched them together since he opened his eyes. They also watched Miss Universe religiously every year (the pageantry!) and Erik came to the conclusion that the combination of these two things ultimately led him down the path to obsessing about awards and ACTRESSING. He began at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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