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2018 Oscar Predictions: THE SCREENPLAYS (December Part 1)

Call Me By Your Name remains atop the Adapted Screenplay list and really, why wouldn’t it? Not only is it a major Best Picture contender but the dearth of competition here makes it such lock that it’s almost pointless to pretend anything else will overtake it. The top four here are pretty solid, making the #5 quite open to just about anything. Stronger is there now but I can see something conventional like Wonder rise, or unconventional like Wonder Woman, Logan or Blade Runner 2049 find a spot in a category their genre is usually snubbed in.

2018 Oscar Predictions (December Part 1): BEST PICTURE | BEST DIRECTOR BEST ACTOR BEST ACTRESS SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS

These are the official 2018 Oscar Predictions for the first half of December in Adapted and Original Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE GREG HOWARD EVAN
KOST
JASON OSIASON KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ RICHARD
ANTHONY
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT MATT DINN TOTAL
POINTS
1 Call Me By Your Name 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100
2 Mudbound 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 87
3 The Disaster Artist 4 2 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 78
4 Molly’s Game 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 75
5 Stronger 5 10 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 8 46
6 Last Flag Flying 9 6 7 6 10 5 5 8 5 9 40
7 Wonder Woman 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 5 34
8 Blade Runner 2049 10 9 8 8 9 5 7 6 26
9 Victoria and Abdul 7 6 9 10 6 10 8 21
10 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 5 5 7 16
11 Wonder 6 10 9 10 9
12 Wonderstruck 9 7 10 7
13 Logan 7 4
14 The Lost City of Z 8 3
15 The Beguiled 10 10 2
15 All the Money in the World 9 2

OTHER CONTENDERS
First They Killed My Father
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
The Leisure Seeker
Thank You For Your Service

We have a tie this month in Original Screenplay. Get Out and Lady Bird, two of the most acclaimed films of the year and written by their directors, rise above last month’s leader Three Billboards, which has taken a bit of a beating the last couple of weeks. Unlike Adapted Screenplay, Original is overflowing with strong contenders, Best Picture likelies and highly original work. It’s so open I can see any number of combinations from this top 10 ending up as Oscar’s top 5.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE GREG HOWARD EVAN
KOST
JASON OSIASON KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ RICHARD
ANTHONY
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT MATT DINN TOTAL
POINTS
1 Get Out 1 1 4 2 3 2 3 1 2 2 89
1 Lady Bird 2 2 2 3 2 3 1 2 1 3 89
3 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 4 3 1 1 1 4 4 3 4 1 84
4 The Post 3 4 3 4 4 1 2 4 3 4 78
5 The Shape of Water 7 7 5 5 5 7 5 5 6 5 53
6 The Big Sick 6 5 6 6 8 6 7 6 7 6 47
7 Phantom Thread 5 6 7 10 7 5 6 7 5 7 45
8 I, Tonya 8 8 8 7 6 9 9 9 8 8 30
9 Darkest Hour 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 8 10 9 20
10 The Florida Project 10 10 10 8 10 8 10 10 9 10 15

OTHER CONTENDERS
Baby Driver
Battle of the Sexes
Detroit
Downsizing
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
Hostiles
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
mother!
Novitiate
Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Wind River
Wonder Wheel

About Erik Anderson

Erik blames his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched them together since he opened his eyes. They also watched Miss Universe religiously every year (the pageantry!) and Erik came to the conclusion that the combination of these two things ultimately led him down the path to obsessing about awards and ACTRESSING. He began at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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