Since we started Best Picture predictions for this season, Dunkirk has mostly been atop the chart with stealth contenders Get Out and Lady Bird in the top 10 but not making a big move…yet. Cue the Golden Globe and (especially) the Screen Actors Guild nominations where both films scored and changed the race. Get Out is the new #1 as we close the year, with Lady Bird right behind at #2.
That all-important Screen Actors Guild Cast nomination weighed heavily on these predictions and the future of this race. That still-strong stat of needing that nomination in order to win Best Picture at the Oscars is still intact. That’s why Get Out and Lady Bird move up and The Post, Dunkirk and Call Me By Your Name move down. The Shape of Water, although it didn’t get one, still moves up after a minor bump last month, on the strength of its field-best number of nominations at the Screen Actors Guild and Critics Choice. The Post also did well at both of those but its zero nominations at SAG is as big a red flag as you can get. Yes, it was not seen in time by enough people but that’s exactly the problem. It has no ability to gain momentum and buzz the way other films have. It’s at a serious deficit. Call Me By Your Name did ok with the Globes, earning three (it missed out on Screenplay and Director), but ended up with just a single SAG nom (for Timothée Chalamet). Despite earning the most SAG noms, including Cast and dual supporting actor mentions, Three Billboards falls just a bit (only 5 points in total) from last month. While the film is scoring well with precursors it could end up being one of the more divisive films in the top 5 and divisive doesn’t win you Best Picture.
The next major precursor will arrive on January 3, 2018 – the Producers Guild nominees. From their list of 10 we’ll very likely see 8 or 9 of the films listed below. We might see a fringe contender show strength or simply a non-contender show up because it made a lot of money for a studio. The Golden Globes are January 7th and that could give some momentum to Get Out or Lady Bird (competing against each other in Comedy). The Drama race is going to be a tough one as Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, The Post, Three Billboards and The Shape of Water go head to head.
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Picture for the second half of December from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
|BRYAN BONAFEDE||GREG HOWARD||EVAN
|ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT||MATT DINN||TOTAL
|1||Get Out (Universal – 2/24)||1||2||3||2||1||1||2||3||4||2||89|
|2||Lady Bird (A24 – 11/3)||2||1||4||1||5||4||1||4||1||1||86|
|3||Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight – 11/10)||3||3||7||3||7||3||3||1||5||3||72|
|4||The Post (20th Century Fox – 12/22)||5||4||2||4||6||2||4||6||3||6||68|
|4||The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight – 12/1)||4||5||5||5||3||6||5||2||2||5||68|
|6||Dunkirk (Warner Bros – 7/21)||6||7||1||6||2||5||6||5||6||4||62|
|7||Call Me By Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics – 11/24)||7||6||6||7||4||8||7||7||8||7||43|
|8||The Florida Project (A24 – 10/6)||8||8||8||8||10||7||8||8||7||8||30|
|9||Darkest Hour (Focus Features – 11/22)||9||9||8||9||9||9||13|
|10||I, Tonya (Neon – 12/8)||9||9||9||6|
|10||The Big Sick (Amazon/Lionsgate – 6/23)||10||10||9||10||10||6|
|12||Mudbound (Netflix – 11/17)||10||9||10||4|
|13||Phantom Thread (Focus Features – 12/25)||10||10||10||3|
All the Money in the World (Sony – 12/22)
Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros – 10/6)
Downsizing (Paramount – 12/22)
The Greatest Showman (20th Century Fox – 12/20)
Wonder Woman (Warner Bros – 6/2)
Wonder (Lionsgate – 11/17)