Saoirse Ronan rises.
The two-time Oscar nominee (at only age 23) is the new president of the new Best Actress chart. With Lady Bird performing exceptionally at the Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild and Critics’ Choice nominations, Ronan finds herself in a lofty position ahead of previous #1’s and Oscar winners Meryl Streep (The Post) and Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri). With Streep’s SAG miss (explainable but still not good) and possible divisiveness over McDormand’s film (although she is killing the critics’ award wins and her film has four SAG noms) it really opens up a path for Ronan to win.
Not to be underestimated, Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water) is also performing very well with the critics and in carving out a solid place for herself. Her film has the most Golden Globe nominations (7) and the most Critics’ Choice nominations (14) of the year. But, her film missed out on that important SAG Cast nom, quite as a surprise. Still, an actor can overcome that snub quite easily.
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) dips just a bit to #5, coming in with SAG, Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations herself but I’m watching out for Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul). She also earned SAG and Globe noms and obviously will earn a BAFTA nomination next month over other competitors. She remains firmly in 6th as she did on the December Part 1 chart but with more points. It’s hard to say who the seven-time Oscar nominee (and supporting actress winner) would knock out of that top 5 but don’t clutch your pearls if it happens.
After that it’s hard to see who else could sneak into this super tight race. Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game) has Globe and CC noms, but no SAG. Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes) and Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World) come in with just Globe noms. But then, just this year Amy Adams (Arrival) came into Oscar nomination morning with SAG, GG, CC and BAFTA and lost her spot to GG-only Ruth Negga (Loving). Anything can happen.
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Actress for the second half of December from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
|BRYAN BONAFEDE||GREG HOWARD||EVAN
|ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT||MATT DINN||TOTAL
|1||Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird||1||1||2||2||5||2||1||3||2||1||90|
|2||Meryl Streep – The Post||2||3||1||1||4||1||3||4||1||4||86|
|3||Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri||3||2||4||3||3||4||2||1||3||2||83|
|4||Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water||4||5||3||4||2||3||4||2||4||3||76|
|5||Margot Robbie – I, Tonya||5||4||5||5||1||5||5||5||5||5||65|
|6||Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul||6||6||6||6||6||6||6||6||6||6||50|
|7||Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game||7||8||7||7||7||8||7||7||7||7||38|
|8||Brooklynn Prince – The Florida Project||8||7||10||8||7||8||10||8||9||24|
|9||Vicky Krieps – Phantom Thread||8||10||9||9||9||9||9||8||17|
|10||Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes||9||9||9||9||10||10||10||8||10||10||16|
|11||Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool||8||3|
|12||Salma Hayek – Beatriz at Dinner||10||1|
|12||Michelle Williams – All the Money in the World||10||1|
Daniela Vega – A Fantastic Woman
Diane Kruger – In the Fade
Jennifer Lawrence – mother!
Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel