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2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Best Supporting Actor

 SUPPORTING ACTORErik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri111212121197
2Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project222121212293
3Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water344373333374
4Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World45544664556
5Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name773647447754
6Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri63655575453
7Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name567736756652
8Mark Rylance - Dunkirk109995988824
8Michael Shannon - The Shape of Water988869891024
10Steve Carell - Battle of the Sexes8101081010912
11Jason Mitchell - Mudbound83
12Bob Odenkirk - The Post10102
12Ben Mendelsohn - Darkest Hour92
12Bryan Cranston - Last Flag Flying92
15Garrett Hedlund - Mudbound101
15Idris Elba - Molly’s Game101
OTHER CONTENDERS
Jacob Tremblay - Wonder
Patrick Stewart - Logan
Ray Romano - The Big Sick
Sebastian Stan - I, Tonya

Best Supporting Actress

 SUPPORTING ACTRESSErik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Allison Janney - I, Tonya 211111121198
2Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird122222212292
3Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water443353433474
3Holly Hunter - The Big Sick334435344374
5Mary J. Blige - Mudbound665544556559
6Hong Chau - Downsizing5566108665746
7Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread877786777640
8Tiffany Haddish - Girls Trip988810888824
9Catherine Keener - Get Out799991010916
10Kristin Scott Thomas - Darkest Hour101010107991013
11Tatiana Maslany - Stronger967
12Melissa Leo - Novitiate7105
OTHER CONTENDERS
Bria Vinaite - The Florida Project

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Next: Best Adapted & Original Screenplay

8 comments

  1. Well, ok, let’s fix for future (if you don’t mind): #13, 8 pts, 1 mention (Jason) for “Call Me By Your Name” (12.03.2017)

  2. Why exactly ‘The Current War’ has advantage over ‘Mary Magdalene’ ? Given that November is release date for MM and December for the ‘War” we can conclude that ‘Mary Magdalene’ is the favorite of TWC for next season.

    • Those release dates are definitely significant. It’s also early and TWC has notoriously moved their dates around before locking them down. Look at Burnt or The Founder. We won’t know their true #1 until probably summer time.

      • That’s right. In 2015, after Cannes premiere ‘Carol’ was TWC’s choice for December but in July (or August), the movie got November release date. We’ll see what will happen this summer with MM and ‘War’.

  3. Don’t understand your faith in Joe Wright (“Darkest Hour”) in directing category. So let’s fix it:
    #5, 55 pts, 9 mentions (gingerly kudos for Bryan) (12.04.2017)

  4. Are these rankings based on solely the cast and director? Meaning the more Oscar nominated/winners on an upcoming movie the higher the rating, or is there something else to it? Now I didn’t see your 2017 predictions but based off of this I would say that Moonlight was prob rated very low?

    • We take every possible thing into account for rankings. Director, cast, subject, studio, release date, subject matter, anything relevant. Moonlight was mid-low in early 2016 but built quickly by end of summer/pre fall, ahead of most predictors on the web.