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2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Best Supporting Actor

 SUPPORTING ACTORErik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name111112121198
2Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project222221212292
3Laurence Fishburne - Last Flag Flying348434333471
4Colin Farrell - Roman Israel, Esq.455353445369
5Michael Shannon - The Shape of Water636745554560
6Mark Rylance - Dunkirk769586768642
7Jason Mitchell - Mudbound574610769837
8Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name987898919
9Ben Mendelsohn - Darkest Hour397718
10Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri1078712
11Will Poulter - Detroit81061010
11Jamie Bell - Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool10810610
13Sterling K. Brown - Marshall8910107
14Steve Buscemi - Lean on Pete10995
15Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water92
16John Boyega - Detroit101
OTHER CONTENDERS
Alessandro Nivola - Disobedience
Ali Fazal - Victoria and Abdul
Armie Hammer - Final Portrait
Ben Stiller - The Meyerowitz Stories
Bob Odenkirk - The Papers
Bradley Whitford - The Papers
Charlie Plummer - All the Money in the World
Chiwetel Ejiofor - Mary Magdalene
Daniel Craig - Logan Lucky
Domhnall Gleeson - mother!
Dustin Hoffman - The Meyerowitz Stories
Ed Harris - mother!
Garrett Hedlund - Mudbound
Harrison Ford - Blade Runner 2049
Idris Elba - Molly’s Game
Jacob Tremblay - Wonder
Javier Bardem - mother!
Joaquin Phoenix - Mary Magdalene
Kevin Costner - Molly’s Game
Kevin Spacey - All the Money in the World
Lucas Hedges - Lady Bird
Mark Wahlberg - All the Money in the World
Michael Shannon - The Current War
Michael Stuhlbarg - The Papers
Oscar Isaac - Suburbicon
Stanley Tucci - The Children Act
Steve Buscemi - The Death of Stalin
Steve Carell - Battle of the Sexes
Steve Carell - Last Flag Flying
Woody Harrelson - The Glass Castle

Best Supporting Actress

 SUPPORTING ACTRESSErik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Melissa Leo - Novitiate1111111111100
2Michelle Pfeiffer - mother!33258232566
3Holly Hunter - The Big Sick457382383364
3Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water246426594464
5Vicky Krieps - Phantom Thread1028531046249
6Mary J. Blige - Mudbound67477657743
7Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird765649931
8Kristin Scott Thomas - Darkest Hour283526
9Brooklynn Prince - The Florida Project8101091047624
10Allison Janney - I, Tonya (possibly 2018)9778791020
11Hong Chau - Downsizing539101018
12Juno Temple - Wonder Wheel69216
13Carmen Ejogo - Roman Israel, Esq.910510813
14Julianne Moore - Suburbicon38
15Millicent Simmonds - Wonderstruck47
16Catherine Keener - Get Out886
17Nicole Kidman - The Killing of a Sacred Deer9103
17Michelle Williams - The Greatest Showman83
19Rachel McAdams - Disobedience92
OTHER CONTENDERS
Alison Brie - The Papers
Allison Williams - Get Out
Brie Larson - The Glass Castle
Carrie Coon - The Papers
Chloë Sevigny - Lean on Pete
Diana Rigg - Breathe
Isabelle Huppert - Happy End
Julianne Moore - Wonderstruck
Julie Walters - Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
Kaela Settle - The Greatest Showman
Katherine Waterston - The Current War
Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread
Margot Robbie - Goodbye Christopher Robin
Naomi Watts - The Glass Castle
Nicole Kidman - The Beguiled
Rachel Weisz - Disobedience
Rebecca Ferguson - The Greatest Showman
Rosamund Pike - Entebbe
Sarah Paulson - The Papers
Tatiana Maslany - Stronger
Tiffany Haddish - Girls Trip
Cathy Moriarty - Patti Cake$
Vanessa Redgrave - Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
Zendaya - The Greatest Showman

Previous: Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress

Next: Best Adapted & Original Screenplay

7 comments

  1. Well, ok, let’s fix for future (if you don’t mind): #13, 8 pts, 1 mention (Jason) for “Call Me By Your Name” (12.03.2017)

  2. Why exactly ‘The Current War’ has advantage over ‘Mary Magdalene’ ? Given that November is release date for MM and December for the ‘War” we can conclude that ‘Mary Magdalene’ is the favorite of TWC for next season.

    • Those release dates are definitely significant. It’s also early and TWC has notoriously moved their dates around before locking them down. Look at Burnt or The Founder. We won’t know their true #1 until probably summer time.

      • That’s right. In 2015, after Cannes premiere ‘Carol’ was TWC’s choice for December but in July (or August), the movie got November release date. We’ll see what will happen this summer with MM and ‘War’.

  3. Don’t understand your faith in Joe Wright (“Darkest Hour”) in directing category. So let’s fix it:
    #5, 55 pts, 9 mentions (gingerly kudos for Bryan) (12.04.2017)

  4. Are these rankings based on solely the cast and director? Meaning the more Oscar nominated/winners on an upcoming movie the higher the rating, or is there something else to it? Now I didn’t see your 2017 predictions but based off of this I would say that Moonlight was prob rated very low?

    • We take every possible thing into account for rankings. Director, cast, subject, studio, release date, subject matter, anything relevant. Moonlight was mid-low in early 2016 but built quickly by end of summer/pre fall, ahead of most predictors on the web.