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2018 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE – The Shape of Water Leads

The first round of Best Picture Oscar winner predictions for the 90th Academy Awards are in and the Gold Rush Gang sees The Shape of Water taking the crown as of today. The film has the Producers Guild and Art Directors guild awards right now, with many more to roll out in February, including the Directors Guild and Writers Guild. But it’s no cakewalk for The Shape of Water, which missed the still-crucial SAG Cast nomination in December. And what of the film’s plagiarism accusations? Will those, well, hold any water?

Our 2nd place, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, did not miss – it won. It also won Actress and Supporting Actor, showing strong support from the largest branch in the Academy. But, with voting on winners not even starting until February 20th, can the film’s backlash take hold and keep it from winning? Between that and Martin McDonagh missing that Director nomination, the film is hobbled quite a bit.

Elsewhere, Get Out and Lady Bird also both have obstacles if they want to push past the top two. No Golden Globe Director or BAFTA film nominations will make it difficult, especially when something like Phantom Thread came in and over-performed on Oscar nomination morning.

Here are the Best Picture winner predictions from the Gold Rush Gang as of Monday, January 29, 2018.

BEST PICTURE ERIK
ANDERSON
BRYAN BONAFEDE GREG HOWARD EVAN
KOST
JASON OSIASON KENNETH
POLISHCHUK
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ RICHARD
ANTHONY
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT MATT DINN TOTAL
POINTS
1 The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 90
2 Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight) 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 78
3 Lady Bird (A24) 2 2 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 71
4 Get Out (Universal) 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 4 67
5 Dunkirk (Warner Bros) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 54
6 Phantom Thread (Focus Features) 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 44
7 Call Me By Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics) 7 7 6 7 9 7 7 7 7 35
8 Darkest Hour (Focus Features) 8 9 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 26
9 The Post (20th Century Fox) 9 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 21

About Erik Anderson

Erik thanks his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards together since he was in the single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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