Like Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) in Best Actor, Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) has dominated awards season by winning the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice and Screen Actors Guild awards. She’s a previous Best Actress winner (for 1995’s Fargo), a general recluse who is happy to “come out of the woods and be invited to the party” and a distinct voice among actors that provides a subversive take on acceptance speeches.
McDormand’s closest competitor, The Shape of Water‘s Sally Hawkins, has gone toe-to-toe with her during critics’ awards season (McDormand has 15 wins; Hawkins has 14) but, again like Oldman, once the televised awards started it was McDormand all the way in every direct competition they had. And, also like Oldman and Day-Lewis with Focus Features, the two actresses are from the same studio – Fox Searchlight. It’s a win-win for the studio no matter who comes out on top. Interestingly though, both films are facing controversy that might derail one or both of them. Three Billboards has been hit with criticisms on how it handles race and redemption and The Shape of Water is being accused of plagiarism. It might end up being nothing.
If either of those take hold during the voting period, Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) could give some chase to the frontrunner(s). Since McDormand and Hawkins are also in the two Best Picture leaders, both of those films would have to take big hits and Lady Bird would have to come from behind and be the Best Picture winner that takes Ronan along for the ride. Not saying it will happen, but I’m not saying it won’t (it’s just really unlikely).
Here are the Best Actress winner predictions from the Gold Rush Gang for Tuesday, January 30, 2018.
|BRYAN BONAFEDE||GREG HOWARD||EVAN
|ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT||MATT DINN||TOTAL
|1||Frances McDormand – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||100|
|2||Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water||3||2||4||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||87|
|3||Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird||2||4||2||3||3||3||3||3||3||3||81|
|4||Margot Robbie – I, Tonya||4||3||3||4||4||4||4||4||4||4||72|
|5||Meryl Streep – The Post||5||5||5||5||5||5||5||5||5||5||60|