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FINAL Oscar Winner Predictions for the 90th Academy Awards

Here we go.

After one of the wildest and most unpredictable Oscar seasons in recent memory with regards to the top category, Best Picture, the Gold Rush Gang and myself have finally settled on our final Oscar winner predictions. Or have we?

LISTEN: Oscar Podcast #65: FINAL Oscar winner predictions with Vanity Fair’s Joanna Robinson

Three films have #1 spots among the 10 members: The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Get Out. Each of those films comes in with statistical obstacles to overcome. The Shape of Water has the most nominations, won PGA and DGA but missed SAG ensemble (La La Land redux), Three Billboards missed Director (and Martin McDonaugh is no Ben Affleck here) and Get Out got no craft nominations – an 84-year stat. Jason is looking to Lady Bird as a possible spoiler on Sunday, putting it in 2nd behind The Shape of Water. Regardless of what wins, there will be a lot of post-mortem conversation on Monday morning. We’ll be looking at some stats as vulnerable in the future and see which ones are still standing to go another round next season.

BEST PICTURE Erik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)212111212196
2Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)323233121288
3Get Out (Universal)131442333383
4Lady Bird (A24)444324444473
5Dunkirk (Warner Bros)958555555553
6Phantom Thread (Focus Features)566676666650
7Call Me By Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics)675768777743
8Darkest Hour (Focus Features)797897888831
9The Post (20th Century Fox)889989999923

One of the most locked categories of the night, Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) will win Best Director even if his film doesn’t. Although Picture/Director splits are now practically de rigueur at the Oscars, this might be one of the best chances of for a match up. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) and Jordan Peele (Get Out) are within striking distance but only if their films are also surprise players elsewhere.

BEST DIRECTOR Erik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water1111111111100
2Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk423222222287
3Jordan Peele - Get Out232453335377
4Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird354334444472
5Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread545545553564

We can’t see Gary Oldman not winning here. It’s hard to make a case for him to lose. Darkest Hour got a Best Picture nomination. He’s the critics leader thanks to the regional 2nd and 3rd tier groups. He’s won every precursor and has been campaigning harder than almost anyone in his category (except maybe Chalamet). He wants it and he’s let everyone know it. He’s backtracked from his previous anti-awards and anti-Hollywood comments and has embraced the race wholeheartedly. While this type of role seems a bit like a throwback to a more old-fashioned Oscars, it still seems undeniable. First-time nominee Chalamet has been saddled with the ‘he’s young, he’ll have another chance’ dismissal (tell that to Adrien Brody) and three-time Best Actor winner Daniel Day-Lewis’s swan song doesn’t seem to be enough to push him to four.

BEST ACTOR Erik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour1111111111100
2Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread324222243284
2Timothée Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name232333322384
4Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out443444434472
5Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq.555555555560

Frances McDormand, who’s done a great deal of the heavy lifting in steering the ship back around for Three Billboards from its backlash and controversy to a narrative of ‘creating conversation,’ should easily join the likes of double Best Actress winners Jane Fonda and Jodie Foster (presenters on Oscar night) as well as her co-nominee Meryl Streep. Even those with misgivings of the film find McDormand’s performance unimpeachable. Sally Hawkins is the closest spoiler but only if there is some kind of crazy sweep by The Shape of Water.

BEST ACTRESS Erik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri1111111111100
2Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water232222222289
3Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird343333333379
4Margot Robbie - I, Tonya 424444444472
5Meryl Streep - The Post555555555560

Next: Best Supporting Actor & Actress, Best Adapted & Original Screenplays

About Erik Anderson

Erik thanks his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards together since he was in the single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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