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2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (May) – Chalamet Still #1; Adam Driver Moves Up

Timothée Chalamet was already in a good position for an ‘afterglow’ nomination post-Call Me By Your Name and the first look of him in Amazon’s Beautiful Boy released last week of the Oscar-nominated actor with fellow Oscar nominee Steve Carell only solidified that. Chalamet holds on to the top spot this month with ease. I expect him to stay there through summer and fall festival announcements. He could go all the way.

Sam Rockwell, fresh off his Oscar win in this category earlier this year (for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), should easily score his second nomination playing former president George W. Bush in Adam McKay’s Dick Cheney biopic Backseat. I think a lot would have to go wrong with this film for Rockwell (and co-stars Christian Bale and Amy Adams) to miss out here. He moves up two spots to #2.

Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk) and Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) each drop just a bit but stay in the top 5. Daniel Kaluuya (Widows), like Chalamet, looks to parlay his Best Actor Oscar nomination last season (for Get Out) into a Supporting Actor nom this season. Although his film features a wealth of potential supporting actor contenders, Kaluuya has the juiciest role and the coupled with his role in the massive blockbuster Black Panther, is the most buzzed about actor in his film. He moves up into the top 5.

Adam Driver sees a move up as well, just outside the top 5 for his turn in BlacKkKlansman, which just won the Grand Prix at the Cannes Film Festival (read my four-star review here). He actually stands a better chance than that of the film’s lead, John David Washington, does in his category. Although the optics might seem problematic for a white actor being potentially the only nomination for a Spike Lee race-themed film, don’t forget that’s exactly what happened when Danny Aeillo was the only nominee for Lee’s Do the Right Thing back in 1989. Arguably, the optics then were not what they are now.

Another move up is Sam Elliott. He joins his A Star Is Born co-stars Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga as making strides towards Oscar glory and to his first career nomination.

Here are my predictions for Supporting Actor for May 24, 2018.

Green – moves up
Red – moves down
Blue – chart debut

1. Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
2. Sam Rockwell – Backseat
3. Stephan James – If Beale Street Could Talk
4. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Daniel Kaluuya – Widows
6. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
7. Kyle Chandler – First Man
8. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
9. Jeff Bridges – Bad Times at the El Royale
10. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther

 

NEXT UP
Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Steve Carell – Backseat
Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex
Oscar Isaac – At Eternity’s Gate
Alex Wolff – Hereditary

 

OTHER CONTENDERS
Casey Affleck – Old Man and the Gun
Joe Alwyn – Boy Erased
Jon Bernthal – First Man
Steve Buscemi – Lean on Pete
Russell Crowe – Boy Erased
Robert Duvall – Widows
Joel Edgerton – Boy Erased
Colin Firth – Kursk
Robert Forester – What They Had
Topher Grace – BlacKkKlansman
Michael Greyeyes – Woman Walks Ahead
Jake Gyllenhaal – The Sisters Brothers
Lucas Hedges – Mid 90s
André Holland – Widows
Samuel L. Jackson – Life Itself
Aaron Taylor Johnson – Outlaw King
Tommy Lee Jones – Ad Astra
Irrfan Khan – Puzzle
Ben Kingsley – Operation Finale
Matthew McConaughey – White Boy Rick
Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns
Liam Neeson – Widows
Chris O’Dowd – Juliet, Naked
Guy Pearce – The Catcher Was a Spy
Jonathan Pryce – The Man Who Killed Don Quixote
Sam Rockwell – Woman Walks Ahead
Mark Ruffalo – Newsflash
Matthias Schoenaerts – Kursk
Michael Shannon – What They Had
J.K. Simmons – The Front Runner
Alexander Skarsgård – The Hummingbird Project
Sebastian Stan – Destroyer
Corey Stoll – First Man
Donald Sutherland – Ad Astra
David Tennant – Mary Queen of Scots
Courtney B. Vance – Ben is Back
Vince Vaughn – Fighting with My Family
Dominic West – Colette
Forest Whitaker – Burden

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (May)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (May)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (May)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (MAY)

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About Erik Anderson

Erik thanks his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards together since he was in the single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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