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2019 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (June) – ‘The Front Runner,’ ‘Peterloo’ Rise

He’s running: Hugh Jackman stars in The Front Runner, which debuts in the top 10 this month

A slow month for Adapted Screenplay as my top 8 stays put in the same spots with BlacKkKlansman still on top. I don’t think it’s a stagnant month just a very competitive category this year.

Changes did come in the form of two debuts in the top 10, both on the heels of recents announcements. Sony’s The Front Runner just received a sweet November 7th awards release date. This second 2018 from Oscar nominee Jason Reitman (he also had Tully in May) detailing California senator Gary Hart’s presidential campaign in 1988, which is derailed when he’s caught in a scandalous love affair. It stars Oscar nominees Hugh Jackman and Vera Farmiga and Oscar winner J.K. Simmons, all of whom also factor in the acting races.

Welcome to Marwen (formerly The Women of Marwen) starts at #10 this month on the heels of its first trailer this week. The response to the trailer hasn’t been that great but it makes sense as a debut for now. Whether it can hold on is another matter.

Those debuts bump down Black Panther and the Untitled Pippa Bianco (aka Share) to the Next Up section and Where’d You Go, Bernadette has been moved to 2019.

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay for June 22, 2018.

Green – moves up
Red – moves down
Blue – chart debut

1. BlacKkKlansman
2. Widows
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. First Man
6. Mary Queen of Scots
7. Boy Erased
8. Beautiful Boy
9. The Front Runner
10. Welcome to Marwen

 

NEXT UP
Black Panther
Crazy Rich Asians
The Incredibles 2
A Star Is Born
Untitled Pippa Bianco aka Share

 

OTHER CONTENDERS
The Aftermath
Disobedience
Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far on Foot
Fighting with My Family
Gloria Bell
Kursk
Leave No Trace
Lean on Pete
The Little Stranger
Mary Poppins Returns
The Mercy
The Old Man & the Gun
The Sisters Brothers
Smallfoot
The True History of the Kelly Gang
Vita and Virginia
The White Crow
The Wife
Wildlife
Mike Leigh’s Peterloo moves up

Backseat remains in the front seat again this month but The Favourite is making a play for the top spot. The Queen Anne saga from Oscar nominee Yorgos Lanthimos (The Lobster) keeps moving up the charts all over the place and I think Fox Searchlight will position this as their #1 push this fall.

Mike Leigh is a 7-time Oscar nominee, five of them for his screenplays. Two of those (Another Year and Happy-Go-Lucky) were his film’s only nominations. The writer’s branch loves Leigh and even though his last film, Mr. Turner, failed to earn a screenplay nomination (despite four others – the most a Leigh film had gotten in a decade) I feel good about Peterloo in Amazon’s hands.

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Original Screenplay for June 22, 2018.

1. Backseat
2. The Favourite
3. Peterloo
4. Roma
5. Destroyer
6. A Quiet Place
7. Eighth Grade
8. Ad Astra
9. Mid 90s
10. Hereditary

 

NEXT UP
Fast Color
Green Book
On the Basis of Sex
Tully
Wendy

 

OTHER CONTENDERS
Bad Times at the El Royale
Ben is Back
Blindspotting
Bohemian Rhapsody
Burden
Colette
Come Sunday
Damsel
First Reformed
Georgetown
The Happy Prince
Hearts Beat Loud
High Life
The Hummingbird Project
Isle of Dogs
Loro
The Nightingale
Operation Finale
Sorry to Bother You
What They Had

About Erik Anderson

Erik thanks his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards together since he was in the single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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