AwardsWatch - Forum Oscar Poll Results

BEST PICTURE
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As we enter the real Oscar season, frontrunner Boyhood finds itself at the top of the pack with a solid 100%. Although, what kind of Oscar predictor wouldn’t have it in? Very close behind and providing a bit of chase at 99% is The Intimidation Game and it’s showing no signs of slowing down. Gotham winner Birdman holds onto 3rd place but look at who’s come roaring back? Selma, after a bit of a rollercoaster between October and mid-November is back and here to stay. The rapturous reception the film got at AFI and subsequent screenings are proving that if there is a film to upset Boyhood, this could be it. The Theory of Everything continues its meteoric rise, landing in the top five for the first time. As a result, last month’s #5, Interstellar, falls down to Earth after mediocre reviews and box office. Unbroken rises a bit, back to its July numbers but now that reviews are out and they are decidedly not that good, expect to see it fall hard next month. Into the Woods makes its debut in the top 10.

01. Boyhood (100%) (Oct – 95%) (Sept – 93%) (Aug – 89%) (July – 41% – NEW)
02. The Imitation Game (99%) (Oct – 95%) (Sept – 94%) (Aug – 75%) (July – 64%) (June – 35%)
03. Birdman (96%) (Oct – 94%) (Sept – 94%) (Aug – 89%) (July – 86%) (June – 81%) (May – 69%)
04. Selma (92%) (Oct – 56%) (Sept – 76%) (Aug – 69%) (July – 65%)
05. The Theory of Everything (87%) (Oct – 66%) (Sept – 62%)
06. Gone Girl (86%) (Oct – 86%) (Sept – 94%) (Aug – 85%) (July – 75%) (June – 81%) (May – 81%)
07. Unbroken (80%) (Oct – 72%) (Sept – 78%) (Aug – 73%) (July – 80%) (June – 71%) (May – 67%)
08. Foxcatcher (67%) (Oct – 73%) (Sept – 88%) (Aug – 87%) (July – 89%) (June – 87%) (May – 78%)
09. Interstellar (61%) (Oct – 87%) (Sept – 88%) (Aug – 82%) (July – 71%) (June – 75%) (May – 66%)
10. Into the Woods (40% – NEW)

Off the list: American Sniper

BEST DIRECTOR

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Richard Linklater continues his lead over Alejandro González Iñárritu and it should only get bigger next month. Although we could see a volley back and forth between the two for critics awards (Linklater won NYFCC, Iñárritu won Gotham), I’d be hard pressed to see Linklater fall anytime soon. But, if he does it will be to Ava DuVernay who vaults from a disastrous fall last month to rockstar 3rd place with an 86% for November. She is primed for an upset here but it’s going to take some serious guild support for that to happen. It’s looking like the top 5 are becoming pretty solid with Bennett Miller’s 5th place showing of 42% a nice cushion to Angelina Jolie’s 29% 6th place (a position and number that is likely to fall next month). Can previous nominees David Fincher or Mike Leigh make a play here?

01. Richard Linklater — Boyhood (98%) (Oct – 97%) (Sept – 84%) (Aug – 83%) (July – 39% – NEW)
02. Alejandro González Iñárritu — Birdman (95%) (Oct – 96%) (Sept – 95%) (Aug – 85%) (July – 80%) (June – 67%) (May – 59%)
03. Ava DuVernay — Selma (86%) (Oct – 23%) (Sept – 47%) (Aug – 50%) (July – 42%)
04. Morten Tyldum — The Imitation Game (77%) (Oct – 62%) (Sept – 41%) (Aug – 37%) (July – 21% – NEW)
05. Bennett Miller — Foxcatcher (42%) (Oct – 42%) (Sept – 64%) (Aug – 72%) (July – 78%) (June – 80%) (May – 64%)

06. Angelina Jolie — Unbroken (29%) (Oct – 31%) (Sept – 29%) (Aug – 38%) (July – 65%) (June – 62%) (May – 61%)
07. David Fincher — Gone Girl (29%) (Oct – 34%) (Sept – 68%) (Aug – 44%) (July – 49%) (June – 47%) (May – 54%)
08. Christopher Nolan — Interstellar (16%) (Oct – 68%) (Sept – 49%) (August – 45%) (July – 23%) (June – 37%)
09. Mike Leigh — Mr. Turner (7% – RE-ENTRY)
10. Damien Chazelle — Whiplash (6%)

Off the list: Clint Eastwood, American Sniper

BEST ACTOR
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After a flip-flop with Benedict Cumberbatch, Birdman‘s Michael Keaton is back on top and right off the heels of his Gotham Best Actor win. Eddie Redmayne rockets into 3rd place and David Oyelowo marches into the top 5, where he’s likely to stay. Like Best Director, this top 5 is looking more secure by the day. With O’Connell likely out of the race only Bradley Cooper or Timothy Spall have much of a chance of cracking that group. If Cooper doesn’t manage that feat then we’ll be looking at the breaking of an 80+ year record of first-timers in the Best Actor race.

01. Michael Keaton — Birdman (99%) (Oct – 93%) (Sept – 91%) (Aug – 87%) (July – 86%) (June – 78%) (May – 71%)
02. Benedict Cumberbatch — The Imitation Game (97%) (Oct – 94%) (Sept – 91%) (Aug – 86%) (July – 63%) (June – 44%)
03. Eddie Redmayne — The Theory of Everything (94%) (Oct – 74%) (Sept – 68% – NEW)
04. David Oyelowo — Selma (92%) (Oct – 50%) (Sept – 65%) (August – 62%) (July – 50%)
05. Steve Carell — Foxcatcher (71%) (Oct – 77%) (Sept – 81%) (Aug – 83%) (July – 84%) (June – 86%) (May – 81%)

06. Jack O’Connell — Unbroken (12%) (Oct – 14%) (Sept – 17%) (August – 14%) (July – 30%) (June – 27%)
07. Timothy Spall — Mr. Turner (8%) (Oct – 12% – RE-ENTRY)
08. Bradley Cooper — American Sniper (5%) (Oct – 46%) (Sept – 14%) (August – 12%)
09. Oscar Isaac — A Most Violent Year (4% – NEW)
09. Matthew McConaughey — Interstellar (4%) (Oct -12% – RE-ENTRY)

Off the list: Ben Affleck, Gone Girl

BEST ACTRESS
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Again, as with the last two categories Best Actress is looking very clear. Julianne Moore, the preordained winner here, is out in front but look at Felicity Jones! While no one here thinks she’s an actual threat to Moore, her rise to 2nd place is impressive. Putting Reese Witherspoon and Rosamund Pike down a peg each is no small feat. Amy Adams holds onto the 5th slot again and by a healthy margin over Hilary Swank. Swank is working the circuit harder than anyone in the race right now, save Redmayne and Cumberbatch, and she has to; she’s not a lock like they are. She has ground to cover but I wouldn’t put Swank out to pasture just yet, she is a 2-2 Oscar winner after all. I’m keeping an eye on Marion Cotillard though. Her surprise win over Moore at NYFCC yesterday gave everyone pause. The only trouble is that it was for a film Weinstein dumped in early 2014 (The Immigrant) and for a foreign-language performance (Two Days, One Night). That was gold for her once (La vie en Rose) but then a snub for her the second time (Rust & Bone). And which film would voters choose? As of today, The Immigrant wasn’t even on Weinstein’s awards page, showing how much he cares about her and that film.

01. Julianne Moore — Still Alice (99%) (Oct – 97%) (Sept – 93% – NEW)
02. Felicity Jones — The Theory of Everything (96%) (Oct – 79%) (Sept – 56% – NEW)
03. Reese Witherspoon — Wild (95%) (Oct – 90%) (Sept – 89%) (August – 85%) (July – 84%) (June – 78%) (May – 66%)
04. Rosamund Pike — Gone Girl (92%) (Oct – 92%) (Sept – 93%) (August – 85%) (July – 79%) (June – 73% (May – 68%)
05. Amy Adams — Big Eyes (64%) (Oct – 58%) (Sept – 66%) (August – 80%) (July – 76%) (June – 75%) (May – 81%)

06. Hilary Swank — The Homesman (20% – RE-ENTRY)
07. Emily Blunt — Into the Woods (14%)
08. Marion Cotillard — Two Days, One Night (8%) (Oct – 15%) (Sept – 6% – NEW)
09. Shailene Woodley — The Fault in Our Stars (6%) (Oct – 7%) (Sept – 6%) (August – 15%) (July – 14% – NEW)
10. Other (4% – RE-ENTRY)

Off the list: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year; Meryl Streep, Into the Woods (both moved to supporting)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
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After tying last month, Edward Norton pulls slightly ahead of J.K. Simmons but after the latter’s NYFCC win I think those places will swap next month. The top four here is looking pretty solid with the 5th spot still a bit open. Tom Wilkinson makes a big jump, unseating Josh Brolin but word on Wilkinson’s screentime still seems like it might not be enough. Underpinnings of Robert Duvall able to make a play here seem misguided to me but he does debut here this month. Christoph Waltz moves up a bit and could be the spoiler here. It’s a lead role pushed down to supporting and we know how that’s turned out for him before.

01. Edward Norton — Birdman (99%) (Oct – 95%) (Sept – 93%) (August – 83%) (July – 82%) (June – 78%) (May – 75%)
02. J.K. Simmons — Whiplash (98%) (Oct – 95%) (Sept – 84%) (August – 51%) (July – 32%) (June – 38%)
03. Mark Ruffalo — Foxcatcher (90%) (Oct – 88%) (Sept – 92%) (August – 76%) (July – 79%) (June – 77%) (May – 69%)
04. Ethan Hawke — Boyhood (87%) (Oct – 74%) (Sept – 43%) (August – 13%)
05. Tom Wilkinson — Selma (48%) (Oct – 16%) (Sept – 31%) (August – 49%) (July – 29%)

06. Josh Brolin — Inherent Vice (20%) (Oct – 49%) (Sept – 35%) (August – 52%) (July – 56%) (June – 64%) (May – 64%)
06. Miyavi (Takamasa Ishihara) — Unbroken (20% – RE-ENTRY)
08. Christoph Waltz — Big Eyes (12%) (Oct – 9%) (Sept – 9% – RE-ENTRY)
09. Robert Duvall — The Judge (7% – NEW)
10. Ralph Fiennes — The Grand Budapest Hotel (5%) (Oct – 9% – NEW)

Off the list: Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher; Tim Roth, Selma; Domhnall Gleeson, Unbroken

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
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NYFCC winner Patricia Arquette enjoys another month at #1 and is likely to remain there. Keira Knightley holds steady at #2 but feels like an also-ran. Enough to earn her a 2nd Oscar nomination but not a win. With the official announcement that both Meryl Streep and Jessica Chastain are being pushed in supporting the pair make big jumps into the top 5 and begin to solidify this category. Streep’s jump is dramatic, putting her in 3rd place just a bit behind Knightley. Kristen Stewart and Laura Dern sit outside at #6 and #7, respectively, and it’s going to take some effort to see them in the final five. Dern has been making the rounds like a pro and Stewart has been showing up at Still Alice screenings and Q&A’s as well. But it’s Carmen Ejogo that seems most likely to make an impact. Even though she took a big hit this month (possibly a screentime issue), I expect to see her return to the upper echelon soon.

01. Patricia Arquette — Boyhood (97%) (Oct – 93%) (Sept – 93%) (August – 80%) (July – 27%)
02. Keira Knightley — The Imitation Game (92%) (Oct – 89%) (Sept – 92%) (August – 60%) (July – 41%) (June – 21%)
03. Meryl Streep — Into the Woods (87%) (Oct – 61%) (Sept – 12% – NEW)
04. Emma Stone — Birdman (73%) (Oct – 75%) (Sept – 75%) (August – 65%) (July – 56%) (June – 60%) (May – 57%)
05. Jessica Chastain — A Most Violent Year (59% – NEW)

06. Kristen Stewart — Still Alice (29%) (Oct – 31%) (Sept – 11% – NEW)
07. Laura Dern — Wild (24%) (Oct – 19%) (Sept – 25%) (August – 31%) (July – 25%) (June 24%)
08. Carmen Ejogo — Selma (15%) (Oct – 44%) (Sept – 71%) (August – 51%) (July – 31% – NEW)
09. Jessica Chastain — Interstellar (5%) (Oct – 33%) (Sept – 28% – NEW)
10. Carrie Coon — Gone Girl (4%) (Oct – 8% – NEW)
10. Anna Kendrick — Into the Woods (4% – RE-ENTRY)

Off the list: Sienna Miller, American Sniper

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
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This is actually a good race with an open field after the top 3. Currently Unbroken and Still Alice occupy those spots but Wild or Inherent Vice could easily replace them. Unbroken‘s screenplay has been one of the biggest complaints in reviews and Still Alice could be a vehicle solely for Julianne Moore. The directors’ struggle to get this film made and their own personal battles could be a good enough narrative here though.

01. The Imitation Game (99%) (Oct – 99%) (Sept – 94%) (August – 83%) (July – 76%) (May – 45%)
02. Gone Girl (96%) (Oct – 96%) (Sept – 94%) (August – 88%) (July – 84%) (May – 82%)
03. The Theory of Everything (89%) (Oct – 77%) (Sept – 74% – NEW)
04. Unbroken (73%) (Oct – 56%) (Sept – 70%) (August – 66%) (July – 76%) (May – 79%)
05. Still Alice (56%) (Oct – 42%) (Sept – 49% – NEW)

06. Wild (50%) (Oct – 58%) (Sept – 42%) (August – 49%) (July – 53%)
07. Inherent Vice (21%) (Oct – 33%) (Sept – 51%) (August – 80%) (July – 79%) (May – 91%)
08. Into the Woods (10% – NEW)
09. American Sniper (4%) (Oct – 33%) (Sept – 13% – NEW)
10. Other (3%) (Oct – 3%) (Sept – 6%)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
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Another fight between Boyhood and Birdman here with Boyhood coming out on top, but just barely. Selma makes a massive jump into the top 3 but could the controversy over script credit be an issue here? Will Ava DuVernay have to go into arbitration with Paul Webb? We could be looking at the same thing that happened to 12 Years a Slave earlier this year with John Ridley receiving sole credit for the adaptation even though director Steve McQueen made major rewrites. This is also a really competitive category with any film in this top 7 a likely candidate. Although The Grand Budapest Hotel breaks into the top 5 here (the Academy does love Wes Anderson here), Whiplash is the type of profanity-laden script the writer’s branch loves and how can you can out Mike Leigh’s Mr. Turner? With 7 Oscar nominations to his name and even with Original Screenplay as a sole nomination in a given year, he is loved here. Loved.

01. Boyhood (100%) (Oct – 97%) (Sept – 97%) (August – 98%) (July – 95%) (May – 88%)
02. Birdman (99%) (Oct – 97%) (Sept – 97%) (August – 91%) (July – 91%) (May – 28%)
03. Selma (83%) (Oct – 38%) (Sept – 58%) (August – 54%) (July – 66% – NEW)
04. Foxcatcher (66%) (Oct – 62%) (Sept – 82%) (August – 33%) (July – 39%)
05. The Grand Budapest Hotel (49%) (Oct – 34%) (Sept – 43%) (August – 83%) (July – 77%) (May – 67%)

06. Whiplash (44%) (Oct – 46%) (Sept – 12% – NEW)
07. Mr. Turner (33%) (Oct – 25%) (Sept – 22%) (August – 46%) (July – 43%) (May – 58%)
08. Top Five (10%) (Oct – 13% – NEW)
09. A Most Violent Year (9%) (Oct – 8%) (Sept – 8%) (August – 24%) (July – 39%)
10. Interstellar (6%) (Oct – 70%) (Sept – 62%) (August – 50%) (July – 23%)