Forum Oscar Poll Results – October 2014

BEST PICTURE
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(hover over the graph for more details…)

The top 3 continue to dominate here while Foxcatcher and Gone Girl both take a hit. The lack of confidence in the timing and marketing of Selma, along with a less than stellar screening, see it fall 20 points and dangerously close to the bottom of the top 10. American Sniper debuts in 10^th place but with strong numbers here and in other categories. It’s the film to watch for right now.

01. The Imitation Game (95%) (Sept – 94%) (Aug – 75%) (July – 64%) (June – 35%)
02. Boyhood (95%) (Sept – 93%) (Aug – 89%) (July – 41% – NEW)
03. Birdman (94%) (Sept – 94%) (Aug – 89%) (July – 86%) (June – 81%) (May – 69%)
04. Interstellar (87%) (Sept – 88%) (Aug – 82%) (July – 71%) (June – 75%) (May – 66%)
05. Gone Girl (86%) (Sept – 94%) (Aug – 85%) (July – 75%) (June – 81%) (May – 81%)
06. Foxcatcher (73%) (Sept – 88%) (Aug – 87%) (July – 89%) (June – 87%) (May – 78%)
07. Unbroken (72%) (Sept – 78%) (Aug – 73%) (July – 80%) (June – 71%) (May – 67%)
08. The Theory of Everything (66%) (Sept – 62%)
09. Selma (56%) (Sept – 76%) (Aug – 69%) (July – 65%)
10. American Sniper (41% – NEW)

Off the list: Inherent Vice

BEST DIRECTOR
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Lots of movement in this category this month as a big jump for Richard Linklater sees him push past Iñárritu to land at #1 for the first time this season. Christopher Nolan pushes into the top 5, knocking down Bennett Miller and David Fincher along the way. Fincher’s rollercoaster ride continues as his high point last month proved to be short lived. Ava DuVernay sees her support cut in half after that mixed reaction first screening and Angelina Jolie sees a slight bump up but far from her strong summer numbers. Clint Eastwood makes a big play and Whiplash’s Damien Chazelle shows up in the #10 spot.

01. Richard Linklater – Boyhood (97%) (Sept – 84%) (Aug – 83%) (July – 39% – NEW)
02. Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman (96%) (Sept – 95%) (Aug – 85%) (July – 80%) (June – 67%) (May – 59%)
03. Christopher Nolan – Interstellar (68%) (Sept – 49%) (August – 45%) (July – 23%) (June – 37%)
04. Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game (62%) (Sept – 41%) (Aug – 37%) (July – 21% – NEW)
05. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher (42%) (Sept – 64%) (Aug – 72%) (July – 78%) (June – 80%) (May – 64%)

06. David Fincher – Gone Girl (34%) (Sept – 68%) (Aug – 44%) (July – 49%) (June – 47%) (May – 54%)
07. Angelina Jolie – Unbroken (31%) (Sept – 29%) (Aug – 38%) (July – 65%) (June – 62%) (May – 61%)
08. Clint Eastwood – American Sniper (27% – NEW)
09. Ava DuVernay – Selma (23%) (Sept – 47%) (Aug – 50%) (July – 42%)
10. Damien Chazelle – Whiplash (5% – NEW)

Off the list: Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice; Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner

BEST ACTOR
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After tying last month, Benedict Cumberbatch pulls ahead of Michael Keaton even though Keaton’s film has opened to rave reviews and strong box office. Steve Carell tumbles a bit and Eddie Redmayne is now nipping at his heels as just 3 point separate these guys. David Oyelowo falls and is now struggling to hold onto a spot in the top 5 as Bradley Cooper tries to be the sole returning nominee in a category full of first-timers.

01. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game (94%) (Sept – 91%) (Aug – 86%) (July – 63%) (June – 44%)
02. Michael Keaton – Birdman (93%) (Sept – 91%) (Aug – 87%) (July – 86%) (June – 78%) (May – 71%)
03. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher (77%) (Sept – 81%) (Aug – 83%) (July – 84%) (June – 86%) (May – 81%)
04. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything (74%) (Sept – 68% – NEW)
05. David Oyelowo – Selma (50%) (Sept – 65%) (August – 62%) (July – 50%)

06. Bradley Cooper – American Sniper (46%) (Sept – 14%) (August – 12%)
07. Jack O’Connell – Unbroken (14%) (Sept – 17%) (August – 14%) (July – 30%) (June – 27%)
08. Matthew McConaughey – Interstellar (12% – RE-ENTRY)
08. Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner (12% – RE-ENTRY)
10. Ben Affleck – Gone Girl (6%) (Sept – 14% – RE-ENTRY)

Off the list: Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice

BEST ACTRESS
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You can’t stop what’s coming. Julianne Moore moves up for her tied #1 spot last month to the lone holder of that placement. Rosamund Pike and Reese Witherspoon maintain their #2 and #3 spots, respectively, as they probably will for the entire season. Benefitting from The Theory of Everything having a strong month is Felicity Jones. She’s up 23 points from last month while Amy Adams continues her slide down.

01. Julianne Moore – Still Alice (97%) (Sept – 93% – NEW)
02. Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl (92%) (Sept – 93%) (August – 85%) (July – 79%) (June – 73% (May – 68%)
03. Reese Witherspoon – Wild (90%) (Sept – 89%) (August – 85%) (July – 84%) (June – 78%) (May – 66%)
04. Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything (79%) (Sept – 56% – NEW)
05. Amy Adams – Big Eyes (58%) (Sept – 66%) (August – 80%) (July – 76%) (June – 75%) (May – 81%)

06. Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year (16%) (Sept – 24% – NEW)
07. Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night (15%) (Sept – 6% – NEW)
08. Meryl Streep – Into the Woods (11%) (Sept – 40%) (August – 63%) (July – 54%) (June – 53%) (May – 36%)
09. Emily Blunt – Into the Woods (7% – NEW)
09. Shailene Woodley – The Fault in Our Stars (7%) (Sept – 6%) (August – 15%) (July – 14% – NEW)

Off the list: Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby; Hilary Swank, The Homesman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
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Edward Norton sees his cozy spot at #1 challenged this month by J.K. Simmons who moves up 11 points to tie for that coveted ranking. Mark Ruffalo remains a solid 3^rd but it’s Ethan Hawke who positions himself as a real threat here, moving up 31 points to secure his place in the top 5. Lack of confidence in the Selma gentlemen push them down into the bottom tier and Josh Brolin bounces back.

01. Edward Norton – Birdman (95%) (Sept – 93%) (August – 83%) (July – 82%) (June – 78%) (May – 75%)
01. J.K. Simmons – Whiplash (95%) (Sept – 84%) (August – 51%) (July – 32%) (June – 38%)
03. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher (88%) (Sept – 92%) (August – 76%) (July – 79%) (June – 77%) (May – 69%)
04. Ethan Hawke – Boyhood (74%) (Sept – 43%) (August – 13%)
05. Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice (49%) (Sept – 35%) (August – 52%) (July – 56%) (June – 64%) (May – 64%)

06. Tom Wilkinson – Selma (16%) (Sept – 31%) (August – 49%) (July – 29%)
07. Channing Tatum – Foxcatcher (14%) (Sept – 14% – RE-ENTRY)
08. Tim Roth – Selma (12%) (Sept – 25% – NEW)
09. Domhnall Gleeson – Unbroken (11%) (Sept – 13% – NEW)
10. Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel (9% – NEW)
10. Christoph Waltz – Big Eyes (9%) (Sept – 9% – RE-ENTRY)

Off the list: Steve Carell, Foxcatcher; Neil Patrick Harris, Gone Girl

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
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The top two remain so this month and Emma Stone stays strong at #3. The near confirmation of Meryl Streep’s placement in supporting for Into the Woods sees her with a whopping 49-point jump into 4^th place and knocking her co-stars out of the race. With the next three ladies all within 14 points of each other that last spot is really up for grabs, with Kristen Stewart making the biggest jump. Will the possible news that A24 is going to push Chastain to supporting for A Most Violent Year help or hurt her chances here though? Her support for her turn in Interstellar has growing support and to compete with herself here could cancel her chances out.

01. Patricia Arquette – Boyhood (93%) (Sept – 93%) (August – 80%) (July – 27%)
02. Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game (89%) (Sept – 92%) (August – 60%) (July – 41%) (June – 21%)
03. Emma Stone – Birdman (75%) (Sept – 75%) (August – 65%) (July – 56%) (June – 60%) (May – 57%)
04. Meryl Streep – Into the Woods (61%) (Sept – 12% – NEW)
05. Carmen Ejogo – Selma (44%) (Sept – 71%) (August – 51%) (July – 31% – NEW)

06. Jessica Chastain – Interstellar (33%) (Sept – 28% – NEW)
07. Kristen Stewart – Still Alice (31%) (Sept – 11% – NEW)
08. Laura Dern – Wild (19%) (Sept – 25%) (August – 31%) (July – 25%) (June 24%)
09. Carrie Coon – Gone Girl (8% – NEW)
09. Sienna Miller – American Sniper (8% – NEW)

Off the list: Katherine Waterson, Inherent Vice; Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods; Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
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The Imitation Game secures near perfect status at 99%, pulling itself ahead of Gone Girl, which also improves. The Theory of Everything continues to make strides here, as it has in all categories. Wild and Unbroken see a flip-flop with Wild moving up and Unbroken moving down. American Sniper makes a play for the top 5 with a big 20-point increase.

01. The Imitation Game (99%) (Sept – 94%) (August – 83%) (July – 76%) (May – 45%)
02. Gone Girl (96%) (Sept – 94%) (August – 88%) (July – 84%) (May – 82%)
03. The Theory of Everything (77%) (Sept – 74% – NEW)
04. Wild (58%) (Sept – 42%) (August – 49%) (July – 53%)
05. Unbroken (56%) (Sept – 70%) (August – 66%) (July – 76%) (May – 79%)

06. Still Alice (42%) (Sept – 49% – NEW)
07. American Sniper (33%)  (Sept – 13% – NEW)
07. Inherent Vice (33%) (Sept – 51%) (August – 80%) (July – 79%) (May – 91%)
09. Other (3%) (Sept – 6%)

Off the list: Rosewater

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
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Birdman and Boyhood remain in a dead heat for the #1 spot, neither budging on their numbers for a second month in a row. Interstellar improves a bit after critics screenings, while Foxcatcher falls significantly, down 20 points. Also down 20 points is Selma, which follows the slide that film has taken across the board in all categories this last month. Whiplash, however, drums up tremendous support and makes the biggest jump on the chart, into the top 5.

01. Birdman (97%) (Sept – 97%) (August – 98%) (July – 95%) (May – 88%)
01. Boyhood (97%) (Sept – 97%) (August – 91%) (July – 91%) (May – 28%)
03. Interstellar (70%) (Sept – 62%) (August – 50%) (July – 23%)
04. Foxcatcher (62%) (Sept – 82%) (August – 33%) (July – 39%)
05. Whiplash (46%) (Sept – 12% – NEW)

06. Selma (38%) (Sept – 58%) (August – 54%) (July – 66% – NEW)
07. The Grand Budapest Hotel (34%) (Sept – 43%) (August – 83%) (July – 77%) (May – 67%)
08. Mr. Turner (25%) (Sept – 22%) (August – 46%) (July – 43%) (May – 58%)
09. Top Five (13% – NEW)
10. A Most Violent Year (8%) (Sept – 8%) (August – 24%) (July – 39%)