Below are the most recent polls for the month of September 2013.
You can also check out the year-long trend for top 10 performing entries each month, for the following categories here and vote for yourself and follow the conversation in the forums here. Commentary by Richard Anthony.
Gravity and 12 Years a Slave have catapulted to the top of predictions following the unanimous acclaim for both films from the fall festivals. Given the Oscar success of Russell’s last two projects, American Hustle remains a likely prospect, sight unseen. Despite skepticism about fledgling distributor CBS Films’ awards campaign strength and how Weinstein will choose to prioritize his films, Inside Llewyn Davis and Fruitvale Station–two indie films with some of the best reviews of the year–round out the top five. Lee Daniels’ The Butler and Rush remain viable contenders, while Captain Phillips receives a boost amid a wave of strong reviews out of NYFF. Support for The Wolf of Wall Street and August: Osage County have waned, due to rumors of a move to 2014 for Wolf, and a divisive critical reception for August.(hover over the graph for more details…)
Cuarón and McQueen have jumped to the top of the pack following the ecstatic response to their films during the fall festival circuit. Russell also remains a top contender, hot off the Oscar success of Silver Linings Playbook, as does Greengrass, for his upcoming high seas drama. Could first-time director Ryan Coogler, heralded by many as a fresh new talent, factor into the race? The Coen brothers, Scorsese, Howard, and Allen are all previous Best Director winners, in the hunt once again for a nomination this year.(hover over the graph for more details…)
A consensus appears to have formed around four actors in this category: Ejiofor, Redford, McConaughey, and Dern. Ejiofor and McConaughey have been buoyed by rapturous acclaim for their films and performances out of the fall festival circuit. Redford remains the front-runner for many, despite a somewhat muted reaction for his film at Telluride, while a strong reception for Payne’s latest out of the Colorado festival has instilled confidence in Dern’s chances. There is currently a lack of unanimity for a fifth actor here, as Hanks, Jordan, and Whitaker are all bubbling under, within a few percentage points of each other. Will Weinstein fail to score a nomination for even one of his leading actors this year? Bale is a distinct possibility as well, while confidence in DiCaprio continues to cool amid rumors of a bump to 2014 for Scorsese’s film.(hover over the graph for more details…)
A clear top five has coalesced in this category: Blanchett, Bullock, Dench, Streep, and Adams. Despite her support, Adams trails the four Oscar winners by a considerable margin, as her film remains one of the biggest question marks in this year’s Oscar race. And, is it possible that Adams is pushed in Supporting–the category in which she scored all of her four prior nominations–rather than in Lead? Many predict Cannes breakout Exarchopoulos will be able to land a nomination on the sheer power of her performance, though she will undoubtedly need the support of year-end critics groups to do so. Similarly, could Delpy, another potential first-time (acting) nominee, surge back into the race with the support of critics? Roberts, Thompson and Winslet are on the radar, too, though many expect Roberts to go the Supporting route, and Winslet’s chances appear to have dropped off following an underwhelming festival response to her film.(hover over the graph for more details…)
Emerging from the fall festival circuit is a trifecta of actors in this category who seem to have distanced themselves from the pack: Fassbender, Leto, and Brühl, all with widespread acclaim from critics for their performances. Hanks and the American Hustle supporting actor twosome of Cooper and Renner are certainly viable, but little is known about the quality of their films. Could Hill become the first 1980s-born actor to score a second nomination? We may have to wait until 2014 to find out. If Weinstein campaigns hard for Philomena, could British comedian Coogan get in on Dench’s coattails? And, what about Gandolfini scoring his first nomination posthumously for Enough Said? The Nicole Holofcener rom-com has connected with critics and the public alike, boasting strong acclaim and a robust box office run thus far in its limited release.(hover over the graph for more details…)
Will we see three black actors nominated together for the first time, ever, this year? It seems maybe so, with Winfrey, Nyong’o, and Spencer leading the pack in this category. Nyongo’s ‘star is born’ reviews and Spencer’s short but powerful performance in one of the year’s most acclaimed films set the two up as likely nominees here. Winfrey appears to have emerged as a front-runner since Lee Daniels’ civil rights drama began lighting up the box office this summer. Will she be able to hang onto her lead, or will an actress with a more compelling narrative emerge? Lawrence, Squibb, and Roberts each show strong support, as well. Would a Supporting campaign for Roberts damn the chances of Martindale? Many think so. Some have high expectations for Diaz, and Hawkins remains in the conversation, especially if Blanchett maintains her front-runner status in the Lead category.(hover over the graph for more details…) (hover over the graph for more details…)