View Poll Results: What will be nominated for Best Picture? (Choose 5-10)

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  • Battle of the Sexes

    2 2.94%
  • Blade Runner 2049

    28 41.18%
  • Breathe

    0 0%
  • Call Me by Your Name

    38 55.88%
  • The Current War

    5 7.35%
  • Darkest Hour

    50 73.53%
  • Detroit

    49 72.06%
  • Downsizing

    21 30.88%
  • Dunkirk

    44 64.71%
  • Get Out

    15 22.06%
  • The Glass Castle

    1 1.47%
  • Goodbye Christopher Robin

    0 0%
  • The Greatest Showman

    27 39.71%
  • Happy End

    5 7.35%
  • Inner City

    18 26.47%
  • The Killing of a Sacred Deer

    6 8.82%
  • Last Flag Flying

    3 4.41%
  • Lean on Pete

    17 25.00%
  • The Leisure Seeker

    0 0%
  • The Lost City of Z

    2 2.94%
  • Mary Magdalene

    6 8.82%
  • The Mercy

    0 0%
  • Molly's Game

    4 5.88%
  • Mother!

    35 51.47%
  • Mudbound

    15 22.06%
  • On Chesil Beach

    0 0%
  • The Shape of Water

    3 4.41%
  • The Snowman

    4 5.88%
  • Suburbicon

    18 26.47%
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    6 8.82%
  • Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project

    21 30.88%
  • Untitled Steven Spielberg Project

    51 75.00%
  • Wonder Wheel

    2 2.94%
  • Wonderstruck

    50 73.53%
  • Other

    5 7.35%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 121 to 137 of 137

Thread: Best Picture: May

  1. #121
    Senior Member with_one_voice's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by erikdean View Post
    This would be an issue, I believe. I don't think it needs an acting nom but it probably needs an adapted screenplay one, which is more likely. Unless people are going to try and make Harrison Ford happen again.
    He seems like the only potential acting nominee from the film, but I think he's a long shot. Does his character get cancer?

  2. #122
    Senior Member Matt24's Avatar
    Join Date: Jan 2013
    Posts: 5,475
    I mean, regardless of what you think of him as an actor, it is sort of weird based on his place in the industry that Harrison Ford only has one Oscar nomination. But between the film being Sci-Fi and the extreme rarity of actors getting nominated for playing a character they've already played (I mean, at least Stallone was nominated for the original Rocky), it's a significant stretch.

  3. #123
    Senior Member
    Join Date: Aug 2012
    Posts: 2,066
    Eh, if Fury Road couldn't do it when the BD frontrunner was the previous year's winner, and the BP frontrunner was incredibly weak with almost zero buzz... BR2049 wouldn't make any sense as the BP winner.

  4. #124
    Senior Member
    Join Date: Jan 2015
    Posts: 1,351
    Final May Predictions:
    1. The Phantom Thread
    2. Dunkirk
    3. Darkest Hour
    4. Blade Runner 2049
    5. Detroit
    6. Downsizing
    7. The Greatest Showman
    8. Untitled Steven Spielberg Project
    9. Mother!
    10. Logan
    Last edited by Scorsesefan; Yesterday at 10:36 PM.

  5. #125
    The Curator of Cock erikdean's Avatar
    Join Date: Dec 2007
    Location: Different places!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vektor View Post
    Eh, if Fury Road couldn't do it when the BD frontrunner was the previous year's winner, and the BP frontrunner was incredibly weak with almost zero buzz... BR2049 wouldn't make any sense as the BP winner.
    Except often things are about timing and maybe MMFR paved the way for BR2049 to get there.



  6. #126
    Senior Member electric_storm's Avatar
    Join Date: Sep 2012
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    Posts: 8,743
    I won't believe in a Nolan project winning until it happens. I fell into the trap with Interstellar where I thought post-Gravity sci-fi was "due" and it looked like both a technical marvel and emotional based on the trailers and we saw how that ended up. Maybe he'll finally get a nomination but I think the critical and cinephile crowd are basically done with him and that's poison in the current awards climate.

    I might throw my shot-in-the-dark winner prediction at Suburbicon. Plot wise it doesn't read like one which always helps, it has the talent both behind and in front of the camera and commercial potential.

  7. #127
    Senior Member Morton's Avatar
    Join Date: Mar 2008
    Posts: 1,342
    Quote Originally Posted by with_one_voice View Post

    1) high acclaim - all winners in last decade have 85+ MC scores. CMBYN is currently in the mid/high 90s
    2) festival play - garnering and sustaining buzz from the fall fests is important and clearly helpful
    3) acting writing directing noms - only two BP winners in the last decade didn't hit all three of these noms (they hit two of them)

    Etc. It's hard to find a film likely for all 3 but I think some under the radar options will emerge. Last Flag? Mother? Lean on Pete? Who knows. For now though I don't think we can dismiss CMBYN since it likely hits all 3 criteria and some currently speculate it could even win Adapted
    Quote Originally Posted by with_one_voice View Post
    I also agree with Erik that AMPAS does tend to award different types of films a lot. I could see them harkening back to something like Darkest Hour, for instance, though as I mentioned, I think it'll need stronger acclaim that most are anticipating (although, Atonement got an 85 MC score (and P&P got 82), so maybe it could happen, actually). Oldman obviously stands a good chance to win, which would help it.

    The winner might just be something a bit under the radar right now, as the last few winners have been? Erik also raised the idea of Blade Runner winning, which I've considered, but will it even get a writing OR acting nod?
    Due to circumstances in real life, I haven't really been paying much attention to next year's Oscar race that much, but now things are going slightly better. Anyway, I know it's IFC, but I really think that The Death of Stalin might surprise. It and The Post just seem like they have the best chance to capture the zeitgeist of the year, imo.

    1. Could potentially be highly acclaimed like Veep and In the Loop.

    2. So far it's not dated, so I'm guessing that IFC will take it to the fall festivals.

    3. I'm not sure if it has the potential to hit number three. Supporting Actor might be tough with Michael Stuhlbarg getting an early lead, but it's possible that Jeffrey Tambor, Steve Buscemi, or another veteran actor from the cast could get awards traction. There's also the two supporting actresses that could surprise since Best Supporting Actress is a wasteland right now outside of Melissa Leo, who I don't see winning a second Oscar right now.

    Aside from an individual acting award though, if it can be another Veep or In the Loop or even exceed that for Ianucci that it could be nominated for SAG Ensemble, and could potentially be a big threat there to win given the large cast that includes SAG favorites Jeffrey Tambor and Steve Buscemi.

  8. #128
    Check my full oscar picks here! goo.gl/Dzau7z Damiansport1's Avatar
    Join Date: Dec 2015
    Location: Poland
    Posts: 2,486
    Its so hard to say right now who will win Best Picture....but if you put gun to me head, i would probably say...Get Out? after having watched it i think its huge contender...Call me by Your Name will not win but should be TOP3 easily.

  9. #129
    Senior Member
    Join Date: Nov 2012
    Location: United Kingdom
    Posts: 1,087
    Quote Originally Posted by Morton View Post
    Due to circumstances in real life, I haven't really been paying much attention to next year's Oscar race that much, but now things are going slightly better. Anyway, I know it's IFC, but I really think that The Death of Stalin might surprise. It and The Post just seem like they have the best chance to capture the zeitgeist of the year, imo.

    1. Could potentially be highly acclaimed like Veep and In the Loop.

    2. So far it's not dated, so I'm guessing that IFC will take it to the fall festivals.

    3. I'm not sure if it has the potential to hit number three. Supporting Actor might be tough with Michael Stuhlbarg getting an early lead, but it's possible that Jeffrey Tambor, Steve Buscemi, or another veteran actor from the cast could get awards traction. There's also the two supporting actresses that could surprise since Best Supporting Actress is a wasteland right now outside of Melissa Leo, who I don't see winning a second Oscar right now.

    Aside from an individual acting award though, if it can be another Veep or In the Loop or even exceed that for Ianucci that it could be nominated for SAG Ensemble, and could potentially be a big threat there to win given the large cast that includes SAG favorites Jeffrey Tambor and Steve Buscemi.
    Most definitely.

  10. #130
    Senior Member
    Join Date: Aug 2012
    Posts: 2,066
    After Cannes:

    1. Suburbicon - 5-time Oscar winner George Clooney... well, sometimes I like to predict the worst possible outcome
    2. Detroit
    3. The Post
    4. Lean on Pete
    5. The Greatest Showman
    6. Wonderstruck
    7. Breathe
    8. Get Out

    9. Call Me by Your Name
    10. Blade Runner 2049
    11. Darkest Hour
    12. Dunkirk

  11. #131
    A fan of Scandinavian cinema and actors Alicia Vikander's Avatar
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    Location: NYC
    Posts: 1,196
    A24 just picked up 'The Florida Project'.

  12. #132
    And Introducing Greta Gerwig as MADONNA DirkDiggler's Avatar
    Join Date: Feb 2009
    Location: KEEP WINDING!!
    Posts: 30,724
    New contender alert!!!^

  13. #133
    A fan of Scandinavian cinema and actors Alicia Vikander's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DirkDiggler View Post
    New contender alert!!!^
    If 'Lean on Pete' doesn't work out, I guess this could be their #1?

    Picture, Screenplay, Cinematography, S. Actor, with Directing and S. Actress as wildcards. It seems plausible.

  14. #134
    Senior Member Gingervitis's Avatar
    Join Date: May 2015
    Location: Bubbles shed with the kitties
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alicia Vikander View Post
    If 'Lean on Pete' doesn't work out, I guess this could be their #1?

    Picture, Screenplay, Cinematography, S. Actor, with Directing and S. Actress as wildcards. It seems plausible.
    The Florida Project is giving me Short Term 12esque vibes.

  15. #135
    A fan of Scandinavian cinema and actors Alicia Vikander's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gingervitis View Post
    The Florida Project is giving me Short Term 12esque vibes.
    A24 is not Cinedigm. Daniel Cretton (at the time) is not Sean Baker.

  16. #136
    HUGE SCANDAL FOREVER Jonathan's Avatar
    Join Date: Dec 2007
    Posts: 17,369
    Quote Originally Posted by Gingervitis View Post
    The Florida Project is giving me Short Term 12esque vibes.
    ST12's biggest knock against it was its studio. Having A24 immediately puts Florida Project in an entirely different league.

  17. #137
    Senior Member
    Join Date: Aug 2012
    Posts: 2,066
    Maybe American Honey is a better comparison for The Florida Project? It feels more like a Spirit awards contender than a real Oscar contender.

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