The ever-changing landscape of The Golden Globes always makes it a fun awards group to predict. Whether it’s controversy over the category placement of films (like The Martian in and Joy in Comedy/Musical last year) or trying to improve its star-whoring reputation by snubbing big names like Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie recently (coming after the debacle of The Tourist) with the group enacting new rules to thwart that and about campaigning we could see a more mature, legit Golden Globes.
This year is going to test the strength of outside controversy in the form of Nate Parker’s 1999 rape arrest (and subsequent acquittal) and how the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will deal with The Birth of a Nation. Will they separate the art from the artist? Will the film be able to stand on its own or will the very mixed reviews of it sink its chances? It may be risky but for right now I’m predicting the Globes to snub the film entirely. We’ll know more once HFPA members see the film and comment on it though.
So where does that leave us in Drama? Will the fall critics’ darling Moonlight hit with the HFPA or be too uniquely “American” for them? I’m predicting Naomie Harris to still get in but for the film, and its other possible acting shot (Mahershala Ali) to be just on the outside looking in. For now.
Denzel Washington has been a favorite of the HFPA for a long time: he’s been nominated by the group seven times, winning twice, and was the recipient of the Cecil B. DeMille award just this last January. Fences could earn him his first directing nod from the group.
Martin Scorsese hasn’t been Golden Globe-nominated since 2012 (for Hugo, where he won Best Director) but with Silence being officially a 2016 release (UPDATE: Silence has an official release date from Paramount Pictures: limited on December 23rd, wide in January), he should get a place at the table, as well as the film and Supporting Actor Liam Neeson.
I feel like the Globes will go heavy on Lion, with nominations in Motion Picture, Director, Actor (Dev Patel) and Supporting Actress (Nicole Kidman). The film feels ripe for Kidman’s awards comeback after getting close with The Paperboy in 2012. Patel’s category placement is the only question; he could be pushed supporting in SAG and for the Oscars despite being the focus and protagonist of his film yet still get in as lead with the Globes (like we saw with Alicia Vikander last season).
I’m really torn on whether Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train) will get her 6th Golden Globe nomination (they seem to love her) or if French cinema legend Isabelle Huppert (Elle) will make the cut. Right now I’m going with Blunt – her film opens in a few weeks and could be big. But I’m absolutely watching out for Huppert to spoil that.
With La La Land being the current frontrunner for the Best Picture Oscar it’s safe to say that there’s almost no need to list other films in the Comedy/Musical category – it’s clearly winning. But here’s an interesting factoid to think about in terms of Oscar: the last film to win the Best Picture Oscar without a screenplay nomination at The Golden Globes was 2004’s Million Dollar Baby. Musicals often have a very hard time securing a screenplay nomination from AMPAS, especially song-heavy ones. I’m going to say the Globes nominate it though. One thing La La Land‘s inevitable win here won’t do is give us much insight on something else pushing its way past the frontrunner since the Drama and Comedy/Musical categories are split.
Nominations for the 2017 Golden Globe Awards will be Monday, December 12th, 2016.
Here are my predictions for this year’s Golden Globe nominations:
Other Contenders: Everybody Wants Some!!, The Nice Guys, Love & Friendship, Rules Don’t Apply
Other Contenders: Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals; Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane; Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures; Isabelle Huppert, Elle; Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers; Rachel Weisz, Denial
Other Contenders: Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk; Andrew Garfield, Silence; Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals; Michael Keaton, The Founder; Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Other Contenders: Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship; Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply; Hailee Steinfeld, Edge of Seventeen; Kristen Stewart, Café Society
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Ryan Gosling, The Nice Guys
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Other Contenders: Josh Brolin, Hail, Caesar!; Russell Crowe, The Nice Guys; Adam Driver, Paterson; Alden Ehrenreich, Rules Don’t Apply
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Aaron Eckhart, Sully
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Liam Neeson, Silence
Other Contenders: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight; Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This; Armie Hammer, The Birth of a Nation; Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk; Jeremy Renner, Arrival; Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals; Timothy Spall, Denial
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Other Contenders: Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women; Rebecca Ferguson, The Girl on the Train; Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women; Rachel Weisz, The Light Between Oceans
Other Contenders: Martin Scorsese, Silence; Clint Eastwood, Sully; Jeff Nichols, Loving; Barry Jenkins, Moonlight; Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Other Contenders: 20th Century Women, The Birth of a Nation, Loving, Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals, Silence
BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED
Kubo and the Two Strings
Other Contenders: Angry Birds; The Little Prince, The Red Turtle, Sausage Party, The Secret Life of Pets, Storks
BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Land of Mine, Denmark
Toni Erdmann, Germany
The Salesman, Iran
Other Contenders: Graduation, Romania; The Handmaiden, South Korea; Sand Storm, Israel
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Other Contenders: The Birth of a Nation, Denial, Finding Dory, Lion, Loving, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“We Know the Way,” Moana
“Go Now,” Sing Street
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“Try Everything,” Zootopia
Other Contenders: “No Dames,” Hail, Caesar!; “Victory,” Hidden Figures; “Audition,” La La Land; “I’m So Humble,” Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping; “The Great Beyond,” Sausage Party; “Drive It Like You Stole It,” Sing Street