Are you armyguy?Originally Posted by Boogaboog
I keep getting this vibe....
Christian Bale The Dark Knight Rises
Antonio Banderas Dali
Bradley Cooper The Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis Lincoln
Leonardo DiCaprio The Great Gatsby
Chiwetel Ejiofor 12 Years a Slave
Jamie Foxx Django Unchained
Richard Gere Arbitrage
Ryan Gosling The Gangster Squad
Ryan Gosling Only God Forgives
Ryan Gosling The Place Beyond the Pines
Tom Hanks Cloud Atlas
Tom Hardy Lawless
John Hawkes The Surrogate
Philip Seymour Hoffman The Master
Anthony Hopkins Hemingway & Fuentes
Oscar Isaac Inside Llewyn Davis
Hugh Jackman Les Misιrables
James McAvoy Filth
Bill Murray Hyde Park on Hudson
Brad Pitt Cogan's Trade
Terence Stamp Song for Marion
Denzel Washington Flight
Other
Are you armyguy?
Cohen WAS a legitamate contender and without a doubt #6. It was either him or Gosling for that last spot, and up until the announcement many thought it would be him and not Gosling.
[quote=DirkDiggler;1357357]no...armyguy had some of the worst spelling/grammar I've EVER seen on this site...like, ever.Are you armyguy?
"Definitely" put Paul Rudd in the next poll.
The mini IMDB review gives me a little bit of hope.
lol.. I know it's IMDB, but still.
It's just that some of these factors seem random. I don't really know how the fact that McCarthy is overweight was a boon to her chances.
Also, unlike Byrne and Wiig, Baron Cohen was a strong contender, and most likely finished in 6th.
People were very charmed to see a large actress do very well with a good role, given how rare they are afforded such an opportunity. I have no other explanation for why Rose Byrne would be utterly shut out of the awards races. The other bridesmaids (Kemper, Rudolph, etc.) I understand, as their roles were not nearly as showy or interesting, but Byrne was in that great toasting scene as well as a number of key moments peppered throughout the film (just as McCarthy had the couch scene as well as a number of comic moments). I suspect people had a "Rose'll be here again, McCarthy won't" kind of unconscious rationale.
I normally disagree with him, but Boogaboog is totally right about the factors that made McCarthy a contender that are not there for Rudd. Including, yes, being fat, perhaps not for the reasons he mentions (or perhaps yes), but because she became, with her size, the most colorful character that stands out in a cast of good-looking-but-not-stunningly-so women.
Paul Rudd just makes it look so easy? He's always effortless, and he's never gotten a truly showy part, and knowing the character he played in Knocked Up, I think it's safe to say that he's not going to have enough material to work with in This is 40.
McCarthy is different, yes. She was supporting and and stole several scenes while getting to chew on the scenery.
I love Paul Rudd, but no. And LOL! to Simon Pegg. Seriously?
Rudd should have gained traction for I Love You, Man...but he's an actor who will never get nominated for the breed of films he gravitates to.
sadly.
What do people think about Oscar Isaac's chances? I'm surprised he doesn't have more votes. The Coens' last four movies all got awards traction, 3/4 were actually nominated for Oscars (all of them for BP), 2/4 got acting noms, and 2/4 got directing noms. I am definitely expecting some attention for this film, the only question for me is whether or not it will be released in 2012 (I think it will).
I am less confident than most about Jackman and Les Miz in general. Love the musical but I can't see it as a film. It's got a very epic feel but in such a small environment (if you can call the city of Paris small). I think that type of combination works well on stage but it won't translate well into a movie.
We are very similar! I feel the same way (:
In terms of Oscar Isaac, I think he is a strong contender (he's in my top 10 currently), simply by virtue of being the lead in a Coens Bros. film. Looking at their previous films since they made it big w/ the Academy, we have:
True Grit -- BP, BD, 2 acting nods, Writing, etc.
A Serious Man -- BP, significant traction for Stuhlbarg (probably finished around 6-7th)
Burn After Reading -- nothing with AMPAS, but 2 acting nods from BAFTA, 1 acting nod from GG, and decent traction elsewhere (e.g. NBR)
No Country for Old Men -- BP, BD, acting, Writing wins, etc.
So yeah, I'm surprised more people aren't predicting Isaac. I guess the subject matter doesn't sound too "baity", but I think it's become clear not to doubt the Coens. Even when their films haven't resonated with AMPAS, their last four films have all gotten significant precursor love. I imagine Isaac would be a bit more heavily predicted, if not for how stacked this category currently is.
I also concur re Jackman. Of the heavily-predicted 5, he's the one I'm least confident in. I'm always wary of musicals bombing, and although I think the film will get at least one acting nomination no matter what (a la Nine), I don't think Jackman will necessarily be the first one to benefit. I think it'll probably be Hathaway. I'm sure Jackman will get a GG nod, but I dunno if his acting will be respected enough in the film to make it with the Academy.
Looking at recent musicals, the primary lead characters haven't always been successful: Beyonce in Dreamgirls, DDL in Nine, Gere in Chicago all missed, with at least one other actor in the film getting in. Of course, Depp in Sweeney Todd, and Kidman in Moulin Rouge made it in, so it could happen -- I just think that some of the supporting characters are gonna be the first ones to gain traction for Les Mis, but we'll see. Jackman's my #5, so I'm still predicting him for now, but I'm somewhat hesitant.
01. Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
02. John Hawkes, The Surrogate
03. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
04. Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
05. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
06. Denzel Washington, Flight
07. Terence Stamp, Song for Marion
08. Anthony Hopkins, Hemingway & Fuentes
09. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Ryan Gosling, The Gangster Squad
11. Bradley Cooper, The Silver Linings Playbook
12. Richard Gere, Arbitrage
13. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby
14. Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
I think it's all about these 14 men. I have a feeling that at least one veteran will be nominated (Stamp or Hopkins), Gere will be snubbed, Foxx won't get a nod (his part isn't particularly showy anyway), DiCaprio will be nominated in Supporting for 'Django Unchained', Cooper will be snubbed (but will be taken more seriously as an actor), Isaac will be the newcomer who'll get a potential GG nomination and that's it, and Gosling's chances depend on how baity both the film and his part are. Murray and Hackman are dependable on their films' reception by the critics and the industry, so I'd say that Day Lewis, Hawkes and Hoffman are the safest bets so far, along with, possibly, Denzel Washington who seems to have an extremely Oscar-bait role. I have both Murray and Hackman above Washington merely because their films are bigger Oscar contenders.
Regarding Oscar Isaac, the Coen brothers themselves called this film a slap-stick comedy and I believe Isaac also mentioned he was shooting a comedy. Now, when was the last time the Coens did a comedy?
Burn After Reading. The one recent Coen movie that didn't get any Oscar nominations at all.
This is why I'm not predicting Isaac (in this already full category seemingly stacked with HEAVY dramatic performances) and probably why most people are not predicting Isaac. I also don't think the movie will be released this year. When it'll be released he will probably be nommed for a Comedy Globe, though.
And it should still be a great movie!
...
I predict the usual five with Jackman winning. Or Day Lewis.
Blue Jasmine is coming for your wigs, gurls
Yeah, it's being released February 8th, which I believe is a bit late for Oscar consideration.
You could call A Serious Man a comedy, albeit a very dark one.
Interesting about the genre. It sounds a bit less baity than I thought but I'm going to keep it on my radar for now- I think the release date is definitely going to change. The Coens are notoriously quick and according to wikipedia it's got Weinstein behind it? So I think we might see a push to December.
Why is Sean Penn not being considered for 'This Must be the Place'?
Just watched it and he is stunning...
Because of it's release date.
Plus he's gonna get behind The Gangster Squad during awards season.
He's already dusted This Must Be The Place off his shoulders.
How do you know this is the case?
It's the kind of film/role that people remember, and some early year performances can make it through, such as 'Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind/Winslet'...
Plus it has the super Oscar-bait holocaust element...
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