Best Actor: November

[guany]

The win? Doubt it.

[Mike Aiello]

Agreed. It's clear now that he's not actually running a maverick anti-campaign. Not that doing so would have cost him a nomination, but now he should be back in contention for the win.

The win? Eh, I dunno about that. I've been toying around the idea and pretty much came to the conclusion that were this someone else...that person might have had a chance, even with the box office and dying buzz at the moment. But while I don't think Phoenix will miss on the nomination, I do think that the Academy finds him too..."weird" to win, if you know what I mean. I don't think a certain block of AMPAS members (probably the more conservative, older block) "get" Joaquin Phoenix lol. I mean, he says he quits the business, then does that strange documentary, comes back, then calls the Oscars bullsh*t, and then come around again? Again, I don't think it will affect his chances at a nomination because all you need is 20% but overall...I just think he's too out-there for many Academy members. Plus Day-Lewis and Washington will definitely have their own solid supporters as well.