2014 Independent Spirit Award Nomination Predictions (Updated 11/24 9:08pm PST)
The 30th Independent Spirit Awards are just around the corner, kicking off about a week before the critics awards start rolling in, marking Oscar season’s official start.
The Independent Spirit Awards have always had a varied and colorful past. Beginning as the anti-Oscars, airing the day before the Academy Awards in a beach tent in Santa Monica, they’ve become rather Oscar-friendly of late. Or more to the point, big studios have found a way to get their “indie” projects in for consideration here. This has often caused controversy, like in 2012 when The Weinstein Company’s Silver Linings Playbook was deemed eligible despite going over the $20M budget requirements set by the Indie Spirits. It ended up winning four awards. This year, Sony Pictures Classic‘s Foxcatcher is courting attention for its eligibility. Is it over the $20M limit? Do the tax breaks bring it under? Who knows, and it’s wreaking havoc with predictions here. While most of the voting Gold Rush Gang feature Foxcatcher in their predictions (based on IndieWire saying it’s eligible), there’s at least one of that’s holding off (Peter Cioth).
UPDATE: As luck would have it, Foxcatcher has been deemed ineligible for the Independent Spirits (well played, Peter) and The Intimidation Game is in. Yep, Harvey has done it again. While not all of us had a chance to get our updated predictions re-submitted, so we have predictions from myself, Jason Oaiason, Evan Kost, Kenneth Polischuk and Richard Anthony.
For the non-controversial choices, everyone is in agreement about the dominance of the two B’s of the season, Birdman and Boyhood. They both have full GRG votes in Feature, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor and Screenplay with Boyhood adding Supporting Actress. In true AwardsWatch fashion, the predictions for Female Lead are the exact same across the board.
Nightcrawler, is being predicted to snag a large haul of nominations in the form of Best Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay and First Feature, with most Gold Rush Gang members locking in votes for all or most of these.
Foreign Film is definitely a category to look out for this year. Since the Indie Spirits only count films with largely American productions, a few British Oscar contenders are likely to show up here. The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything and Mr. Turner all have good chances at ending up here since they don’t qualify for the other awards. That said, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Focus Features or The Weinstein Company didn’t figure out some way to make them eligible. UPDATE: See above.
When all is said and done though, is there any way that IFC Films’ Boyhood doesn’t dominate these awards and win it all? Film Independent, IFC Films and the IFC channel (which produces and shows the awards) are the same entity. Tips the hand a bit, no? Tune in Tuesday, November 25th at 10am PST when Rosario Dawson and Diego Luna announce the nominations.
ERIK ANDERSON
Best Feature
Boyhood
Birdman
The Intimidation Game
Love is Strange
Whiplash
Best Director
J.C. Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Damian Chazelle, Whiplash
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Justin Simien, Dear White People
Best Male Lead
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Intimidation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year
John Lithgow, Love is Strange
Best Female Lead
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Beyond the Lights
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Jenny Slate, Obvious Child
Kristen Wiig, The Skeleton Twins
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Supporting Male
Riz Ahmed, Nightcrawler
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, A Most Violent Year
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Female
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
Tessa Thompson, Dear White People
Best Screenplay
Boyhood
Birdman
Nightcrawler
The Skeleton Twins
Whiplash
Best First Feature
Dear White People (Justin Simien)
A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night (Ana Lily Amirpour)
Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy)
Obvious Child (Gillian Robespierre)
Rosewater (Jon Stewart)
Best Foreign Film
Force Majeure
Ida
Leviathan
The Theory of Everything
Under the Skin
Best Documentary
The Case Against 8
Citizenfour
Life Itself
Korengal
Point and Shoot
[divider]
JASON OAIASON
Best Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Still Alice
Whiplash
Best Director
JC Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Richard Glatzer and Wash Westmoreland, Still Alice
Best Male Lead
Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Miles Teller, Whiplash
Best Female Lead
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Jenny Slate, Obvious Child
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Beyond the Lights
Kristen Wiig, The Skeleton Twins
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Supporting Male
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Alfred Molina, Love is Strange
Edward Norton, Birdman
Riz Ahmed, Nightcrawler
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Female
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
Best Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Nightcrawler
Still Alice
Whiplash
Best First Feature
Dear White People
Obvious Child
Nightcrawler
Rosewater
St. Vincent
Best Foreign Film
Force Majeure
Ida
Mommy
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything
Best Documentary
CITIZENFOUR
Keep On Keepin On
Life Itself
The Overnighters
Red Army
[divider]
EVAN KOST
Best Feature
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Love Is Strange
Whiplash
Best Director
JC Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Jeremy Saulnier, Blue Ruin
Best Male Lead
Ellar Coltrane, Boyhood
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Miles Teller, Whiplash
Best Female Lead
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Beyond the Lights
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Jenny Slate, Obvious Child
Kristen Wiig, The Skeleton Twins
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Supporting Male
Riz Ahmed, Nightcrawler
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Alfred Molina, Love Is Strange
Edward Norton, Birdman
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Female
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
Tessa Thompson, Dear White People
Best Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Love Is Strange
Nightcrawler
Whiplash
Best First Feature
Dear White People
Infinitely Polar Bear
Obvious Child
Nightcrawler
Rosewater
Best Foreign Film
Ida
Mommy
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything
Under the Skin
[divider]
KENNETH POLISCHUK
Best Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Love is Strange
Whiplash
Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
J.C. Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Damian Chazelle, Whiplash
Best Male Lead
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year
Milles Teller, Whiplash
Best Female Lead
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Beyond the Lights
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Jenny Slate, Obvious Child
Kristen Wiig, The Skeleton Twins
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Supporting Male
Riz Ahmed, Nightcrawler
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Alfred Molina, Love is Strange
Edward Norton, Birdman
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Female
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
Tessa Thompson, Dear White People
First Feature
Dear White People
Obvious Child
Nightcrawler
Rosewater
St.Vincent
Best Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Love is Strange
Nightcrawler
Whiplash
Best Foreign Film
Ida
Mommy
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything
Under the Skin
[divider]
RICHARD ANTHONY
Best Feature
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Wild
Best Director
JC Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Best Male Lead
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Miles Teller, Whiplash
Best Female Lead
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Beyond the Lights
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Jenny Slate, Obvious Child
Kristen Wiig, The Skeleton Twins
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Supporting Male
Riz Ahmed, Nightcrawler
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Alfred Molina, Love Is Strange
Edward Norton, Birdman
JK Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Female
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
Best Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Nightcrawler
The Skeleton Twins
Whiplash
Best Foreign Film
Force Majeure
Ida
Mommy
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything
Best Documentary
The Case Against 8
Citizenfour
Life Itself
The Overnighters
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And now that the nominations are out, you were wrong in several categories. I had to laugh when I saw you include Kristen Stewart in the best supporting actress category. She won’t get any nominations this year. Her buzz is all hype, which is why she pays a full time PR rep.
But in reality, she was merely adequate, not outstanding in that role. Sony is desperate to stir up some excitement for something else about the film, which is just a showcase for Julianne Moore, who is outstanding. It’s sad they they are trying to coattail Stewart on Moore’s great work. But Stewart’s team is desperate to polish her tarnished image, so they’ll do whatever they can, no matter how ridiculous it makes her look.
Don’t bother to put her on lists for the Golden Globes or Oscars, cause that’s not going to happen either, and she’s bringing your average down.
Yes, and the Indie Spirit nominations are always the most difficult to predict because eligibility is obscured until after the fact. That said, everyone made as strong predictions as they could with the limited available information, some of which changed at the 11th hour.
Your weird rant against Stewart is bizarre as it’s the only thing you single out so maybe the “hype” is equally created by those who don’t think her buzz is real. Guess we’ll just have to see.