Home / Predictions / Film / Forum Polls' Monthly Trackers / Forum Oscar Poll Results – December 2014: Jake Gyllenhaal, Marion Cotillard and Grand Budapest Make Big Moves

Forum Oscar Poll Results – December 2014: Jake Gyllenhaal, Marion Cotillard and Grand Budapest Make Big Moves

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What a difference a month makes! With December being such a busy period of industry and critics awards cramming into a space of about two weeks, you’re gonna see some big changes in December’s predictions. With the Oscar nominations less than two weeks away we’ll have another update for you just before that. As usual, you can always be a part of the vote right here in our forums!

Right now, take a look at some of the big movers going up like The Grand Budapest Hotel in Best Picture and Best Director, Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler) in Best Actor and Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) in Best Actress. Surprise Screen Actors Guild nominations for Gyllenhaal and Jennifer Aniston (Cake) have vaulted them into contender territory, with Gyllenhaal seeing the biggest bump (and his film into Best Picture). Naomi Watt’s SAG nom for St. Vincent didn’t seem to do anything for her, she sits in a distant 10th in Best Supporting Actress.

You’ll also spot some precipitous drops from Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken and Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher. While Unbroken was embraced by the Broadcast Film Critics Association, the Golden Globes shockingly snubbed the film altogether and they’ve been Jolie fans to a fault. Both films have been yo-yo’s this season but being on the downward spiral right in the middle of Oscar voting is not the place you want to be.

BEST PICTURE
01. Birdman – 98% (Nov – 96%) (Oct – 94%) (Sept – 94%) (Aug – 89%) (July – 86%) (June – 81%) (May – 69%)
02. Boyhood – 98% (Nov – 100%) (Oct – 95%) (Sept – 93%) (Aug – 89%) (July – 41% – NEW)
03. The Imitation Game – 97% (Nov – 99%) (Oct – 95%) (Sept – 94%) (Aug – 75%) (July – 64%) (June – 35%)
04. The Grand Budapest Hotel – 94% – New
04. Selma – 94% (Nov – 92%) (Oct – 56%) (Sept – 76%) (Aug – 69%) (July – 65%)
06. The Theory of Everything – 92% (Nov – 87%) (Oct – 66%) (Sept – 62%)
07. Gone Girl – 84% (Nov – 86%) (Oct – 86%) (Sept – 94%) (Aug – 85%) (July – 75%) (June – 81%) (May – 81%)
08. Whiplash – 61% – New
09. Unbroken – 29% (Nov – 80%) (Oct – 72%) (Sept – 78%) (Aug – 73%) (July – 80%) (June – 71%) (May – 67%)
10. Nightcrawler – 22% – New

Off list: FoxcatcherInterstellarInto the Woods

BEST DIRECTOR
01. Richard Linklater, Boyhood – 100% (Nov – 98%) (Oct – 97%) (Sept – 84%) (Aug – 83%) (July – 39% – NEW)
02. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman – 97% (Nov – 95%) (Oct – 96%) (Sept – 95%) (Aug – 85%) (July – 80%) (June – 67%) (May – 59%)
03. Ava DuVernay, Selma – 93% (Nov – 86%) (Oct – 23%) (Sept – 47%) (Aug – 50%) (July – 42%)
04. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel – 80% – Re-entry
05. David Fincher, Gone Girl – 54% (Nov – 29%) (Oct – 34%) (Sept – 68%) (Aug – 44%) (July – 49%) (June – 47%) (May – 54%)

06. Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game – 27% (Nov – 77%) (Oct – 62%) (Sept – 41%) (Aug – 37%) (July – 21% – NEW)
07. Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner – 18% (Nov – 7% – Re-entry)
08. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash – 12% (Nov – 6%)
09. Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher – 6% (Nov – 42%) (Oct – 42%) (Sept – 64%) (Aug – 72%) (July – 78%) (June – 80%) (May – 64%)
10. Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler – 4% – New
10. James Marsh, The Theory of Everything – 4% – New

Off list: Angelina Jolie, Unbroken; Christopher Nolan, Interstellar

BEST ACTOR
01. Michael Keaton, Birdman – 97% (Nov – 99%) (Oct – 93%) (Sept – 91%) (Aug – 87%) (July – 86%) (June – 78%) (May – 71%)
02. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything – 96% (Nov – 94%) (Oct – 74%) (Sept – 68% – NEW)
02. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game – 93% (Nov – 97%) (Oct – 94%) (Sept – 91%) (Aug – 86%) (July – 63%) (June – 44%)
04. David Oyelowo, Selma – 86% (Nov – 92%) (Oct – 50%) (Sept – 65%) (August – 62%) (July – 50%)
05. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler – 59% – New

06. Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner – 21% (Nov – 8%) (Oct – 12% – Re-entry)
07. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher  – 20% (Nov – 71%) (Oct – 77%) (Sept – 81%) (Aug – 83%) (July – 84%) (June – 86%) (May – 81%)
08. Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel – 16% – New
09. Bradley Cooper, American Sniper – 9% (Nov – 5%) (Oct – 46%) (Sept – 14%) (August – 12%)
10. Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year – 2% (Nov – 4% – NEW)

Off list: Matthew McConaughey, Interstellar; Jack O’Connell, Unbroken

BEST ACTRESS
01. Julianne Moore, Still Alice – 98% (Nov – 99%) (Oct – 97%) (Sept – 93% – NEW)
02. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl – 95% (Nov – 92%) (Oct – 92%) (Sept – 93%) (August – 85%) (July – 79%) (June – 73% (May – 68%)
02. Reese Witherspoon, Wild – 95% (Nov – 95%) (Oct – 90%) (Sept – 89%) (August – 85%) (July – 84%) (June – 78%) (May – 66%)
04. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything – 91% (Nov – 96%) (Oct – 79%) (Sept – 56% – NEW)
05. Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night – 52% (Nov – 8%) (Oct – 15%) (Sept – 6% – NEW)

06. Jennifer Aniston, Cake – 34% – New
07. Amy Adams, Big Eyes – 17% (Nov – 64%) (Oct – 58%) (Sept – 66%) (August – 80%) (July – 76%) (June – 75%) (May – 81%)
08. Emily Blunt, Into the Woods – 3% (Nov – 14%)
09. Hilary Swank, The Homesman – 2% (20% – Re-entry)
10. Other – 2% (4% – Re-entry)

Off list: Shailene Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash – 99% (Nov – 98%) (Oct – 95%) (Sept – 84%) (August – 51%) (July – 32%) (June – 38%)
02. Edward Norton, Birdman – 98% (Nov – 99%) (Oct – 95%) (Sept – 93%) (August – 83%) (July – 82%) (June – 78%) (May – 75%)
03. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood – 98% (Nov – 87%) (Oct – 74%) (Sept – 43%) (August – 13%)
04. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher – 97% (Nov – 90%) (Oct – 88%) (Sept – 92%) (August – 76%) (July – 79%) (June – 77%) (May – 69%)
05. Robert Duvall, The Judge – 49% (Nov – 7% – NEW)

06. Tom Wilkinson, Selma – 26% (Nov – 48%) (Oct – 16%) (Sept – 31%) (August – 49%) (July – 29%)
07. Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice – 18% (Nov – 20%) (Oct – 49%) (Sept – 35%) (August – 52%) (July – 56%) (June – 64%) (May – 64%)
08. Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes – 8% (Nov – 12%) (Oct – 9%) (Sept – 9% – Re-entry)
09. Other – 5%

Off list: Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel (see Best Actor); Miyavi, Unbroken

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood – 97% (Nov – 97%) (Oct – 93%) (Sept – 93%) (August – 80%) (July – 27%)
02. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game – 94% (Nov – 92%) (Oct – 89%) (Sept – 92%) (August – 60%) (July – 41%) (June – 21%)
03. Emma Stone, Birdman – 91% (Nov – 73%) (Oct – 75%) (Sept – 75%) (August – 65%) (July – 56%) (June – 60%) (May – 57%)
04. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods – 86% (Nov – 87%) (Oct – 61%) (Sept – 12% – NEW)
05. Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year – 82% (Nov – 59% – New)

06. Laura Dern, Wild – 13% (Nov – 24%) (Oct – 19%) (Sept – 25%) (August – 31%) (July – 25%) (June 24%)
07. Carmen Ejogo, Selma – 9% (Nov – 15%) (Oct – 44%) (Sept – 71%) (August – 51%) (July – 31% – NEW)
08. Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer – 8% – New
09. Rene Russo, Nightcrawler – 7% – New
10. Naomi Watts, St. Vincent – 2% – New
10. Other – 2%

Off list: Kristen Stewart, Still Alice; Carrie Coon, Gone Girl; Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01. Gone Girl – 99% (Nov – 96%) (Oct – 96%) (Sept – 94%) (August – 88%) (July – 84%) (May – 82%)
02. The Imitation Game – 97% (Nov – 99%) (Oct – 99%) (Sept – 94%) (August – 83%) (July – 76%) (May – 45%)
03. The Theory of Everything – 94% (Nov – 89%) (Oct – 77%) (Sept – 74% – NEW)
04. Wild – 85% (Nov – 50%) (Oct – 58%) (Sept – 42%) (August – 49%) (July – 53%)
05. Inherent Vice – 82% (Nov – 21%) (Oct – 33%) (Sept – 51%) (August – 80%) (July – 79%) (May – 91%)

06. American Sniper – 10% (Nov – 4%) (Oct – 33%) (Sept – 13% – NEW)
06. Still Alice – 10% (Nov – 56%) (Oct – 42%) (Sept – 49% – NEW)
08. Unbroken – 9% (Nov – 73%) (Oct – 56%) (Sept – 70%) (August – 66%) (July – 76%) (May – 79%)
09. Into the Woods – 5% (Nov – 10% – NEW)
10. Other – 3% (Nov – 3%) (Oct – 3%) (Sept – 6%)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01. Boyhood – 98% (Nov – 100%) (Oct – 97%) (Sept – 97%) (August – 98%) (July – 95%) (May – 88%)
01. The Grand Budapest Hotel – 98% (Nov – 49%) (Oct – 34%) (Sept – 43%) (August – 83%) (July – 77%) (May – 67%)
03. Birdman – 96% (Nov – 99%) (Oct – 97%) (Sept – 97%) (August – 91%) (July – 91%) (May – 28%)
04. Whiplash – 57% (Nov – 44%) (Oct – 46%) (Sept – 12% – NEW)
05. Selma – 55% (Nov – 83%) (Oct – 38%) (Sept – 58%) (August – 54%) (July – 66% – NEW)

06. Mr. Turner – 46% (Nov – 33%) (Oct – 25%) (Sept – 22%) (August – 46%) (July – 43%) (May – 58%)
07. Nightcrawler – 28% (New)
08. Foxcatcher – 14% (Nov – 66%) (Oct – 62%) (Sept – 82%) (August – 33%) (July – 39%)
09. A Most Violent Year – 6% (Nov – 9%) (Oct – 8%) (Sept – 8%) (August – 24%) (July – 39%)
10. Other – 2%

Off list: InterstellarTop Five

About Erik Anderson

Erik thanks his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards together since he was in the single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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