Some major changes in the Best Supporting Actress race this month. First though, Rooney Mara (Carol) holds onto her crown, now with #1 placement votes from 9/10 Gold Rush Gang members. Only Jason Osaison give her a #2 slot, saving his top vote for a newcomer to the chart (more on her later). At 49 points, Mara is the top vote-getter in all acting categories. Helena Bonham Carter (Suffragette) keeps her #3 berth with a 2-point bump.
The biggest move of the month comes from Ellen Page (Freeheld). The Oscar-nominated actress (Juno) and her passion project bolt from 5th to 2nd. She still holds less than half of Rooney’s point total but with five #2 slots from GRG members she pushes herself ahead of the slightly stagnant Helena Bonham Carter.
Kate Winslet also makes a big move, going from 7th place last month to 4th this month. She’s getting the best word of mouth for her performance in Steve Jobs and it’s what’s pushing her near the top.
Three actress take big tumbles this month; Diane Ladd in Joy, Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl and Jane Fonda in Youth. The Ladd drop seems to be a result of not enough of her in the Joy trailer to maintain a strong position in the supporting actress race as well as possible vote siphoning coming from her co-stars Elizabeth Röhm, Dasca Polanco and Isabella Rosselini, both of whom reportedly have larger roles. Vikander’s drop is not as bad, it’s merely a category switch for her. She sits comfortably in 5th place in the Best Actress race. Fonda drops due to a lack of passion for her cameo and probably a bit can be owed to her lack of an Emmy nomination last month while her co-star Lily Tomlin (a possible Best Actress Oscar contender for Grandma) got in.
Poor Naomi Watts, on last month’s list with two films, is dropped entirely. Demolition was moved to 2016 by Fox Searchlight and About Ray (formerly Three Generations) and its September release, no trailer and perceived lack of support from The Weinstein Company gave the Gold Rush Gang no choice but to drop her. Olivia Cooke (Me and Earl and the Dying Girl) is finally gone and dead forever.
Two actresses make their debuts this month and one in a big way. Elizabeth Olsen in I Saw the Light from Sony Pictures Classics hits the ground running at #5 in her first month on the charts. Word of mouth is that her performance is electrifying and we could see some redemption from her Martha Marcy May Marlene snub in 2012. The other debut is Gotham Award winner Emayatzy Corinealdi in the Don Cheadle-directed Miles Davis biopic Miles Ahead. As with Cheadle in Best Actor, this is a prediction based on the film being bought and distributed this year. It currently is without a studio but will be the closing night film at this fall’s New York Film Festival. It will be curious to see if two ‘wives of musicians’ performances; Olsen in I Saw the Light and Corinealdi in Miles Ahead, can both make it in.
Looking at uncharted actresses but ladies I’m keeping an eye on, the never nominated Jennifer Jason-Leigh could be a force to be reckoned with in The Hateful Eight. Her part was beefed up after the leaked script hit the internet and could find herself with her first nomination. Laura Linney in Mr. Holmes could see herself brought in on the coattails of her co-star Ian McKellen if he makes it in. But then, Linney has been able to secure a supporting actress Oscar nomination without the benefit of her leading male co-star before (Kinsey).
Don’t forget, you can always get up to the minute Oscar predictions from the Gold Rush Gang on all of our 2016 Oscar Prediction Charts:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS