Boy, are these races getting close! Each month seems to find the top three in most categories getting closer to each other and making this race super competitive. A lot has changed since last month’s results so let’s get right to it.
While The Revenant holds onto its #1 spot take a look at who has blown up the chart. Not Carol. Not Joy. The Danish Girl moves all the way up from 5th place to TIE The Revenant for #1. And this is before the first trailer even arrived. That’s a pretty big vote of confidence for the film which I expect will continue to grow (or fall) as we enter film festival season and the film is reviewed. All of that isn’t to say that Carol and Joy are slouchers. Carol is a mere ONE point away from The Revenant and The Danish Girl and Joy is only four off. The stranglehold of the Best Picture race by those four films is remarkable. As I predicted last month, Beasts of No Nation makes the biggest debut on the Best Picture chart, landing at #5. That’s another film that will be seen at multiple festivals this month and those reviews will make or break the film’s Oscar chances. The big stumble this month is Suffragette, which goes from a very healthy #4 position all the way down to #10 and barely hanging on. There seems to be a lack of passion among AW’s voters and a thought that Focus Features is putting their energy behind The Danish Girl and that
Suffragette will suffer as a result.
01. The Danish Girl (89%; 73 votes)
01. The Revenant (89%; 73 votes)
03. Carol (88%; 72 votes)
04. Joy (84%; 69 votes)
05. Beasts of No Nation (72%; 59 votes)
06. Bridge of Spies (62%; 51 votes)
07. Inside Out (61%; 50 votes)
07. The Hateful Eight (61%; 50 votes)
09. Steve Jobs (57%; 47 votes)
10. Suffragette (54%; 44 votes)
The Best Director race mirrors Best Picture in terms of being a 5/5 match but just in different order. Todd Haynes maintains his hold on the top spot but Alejandro G. Iñárritu has closed the gap down to a single vote. While David O. Russell saw his overall vote total shrink a bit he still holds court at #3. Despite securing the #1 spot in Best Picture, The Danish Girl‘s Oscar-winning director, Tom Hooper, still lands at #4 and again we see the big move being made by Beasts of No Nation as Cary Fukunaga makes it to the top 5 for the first time. Elsewhere we see Paolo Sorrentino fall off the chart and replaced by László Nemes (Son of Saul).
01. Todd Haynes – Carol (87%; 66 votes)
02. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant (86%; 65 votes)
03. David O. Russell – Joy (75%; 57 votes)
04. Tom Hooper – The Danish Girl (59%; 45 votes)
05. Cary Fukunaga – Beasts of No Nation (53%; 40 votes)
06. Danny Boyle – Steve Jobs (25%; 19 votes)
07. Steven Spielberg – Bridge of Spies (21%; 16 votes)
08. Sarah Gavron – Suffragette (20%; 15 votes)
08. Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight (20%; 15 votes)
10. László Nemes – Son of Saul (12%; 9 votes)
It seems every month Leonardo DiCaprio and Eddie Redmayne play musical chairs with the #1 spot and this month it belongs to DiCaprio. The Michaels (Fassbender and Caine) maintain their #3 and #4 positions (but higher vote totals) but it’s Don Cheadle who debuts with Miles Ahead landing him at #5. The news that the NYFF closer was bought by Sony Pictures Classics sent everyone’s predictions into a frenzy even though the studio has been very cagey about when and how it will be released. Oscar pundits Tom O’Neill at GoldDerby and Anne Thompson from Thompson on Hollywood both said SPC told them directly to hold off on putting Cheadle in their awards predictions until they’ve decided on what to do. The studio also has the Tom Hiddleston biopic of Hank Williams set with a date (November 27th) so it seems like they’re hedging their bets at the moment. Most of us believe the film will get a qualifying release (a la Still Alice last year) and that confidence is what gives Cheadle this strong start.
That debut bumps his studio competition Hiddleston down to #6 the chart and we lose a pair of Gyllenhaal efforts; Demolition was moved to 2016 and Southpaw‘s box office and reviews just aren’t enough for Jake this year. Joseph Gordon-Levitt also takes a walk and Son of Saul‘s Géza Röhrig joins the top 10.
01. Leonardo DiCaprio — The Revenant (92%; 151 votes)
02. Eddie Redmayne — The Danish Girl (91%; 149 votes)
03. Michael Fassbender — Steve Jobs (75%; 123 votes)
04. Michael Caine — Youth (62%; 101 votes)
05. Don Cheadle — Miles Ahead (45%; 74 votes)
06. Tom Hiddleston — I Saw the Light (37%; 61 votes)
07. Tom Hanks — Bridge of Spies (19%; 31 votes)
08. Johnny Depp — Black Mass (18%; 29 votes)
09. Ian McKellen — Mr. Holmes (9%; 15 votes)
09. Géza Röhrig — Son of Saul (9%; 15 votes)
Here comes Jennifer! The Oscar winner, who had been trailing fellow Oscar-winner Cate Blanchett for the last two months, has now reached the top spot, albeit in a tie. The ladies share #1 for the month but with Carol debuting at the September festivals and Joy not showing up until Christmas that gives Blanchett the advantage in next month’s poll to pull ahead once again. Despite her film taking a hit, Carey Mulligan (Suffragette) holds on surprisingly well at #3. Alicia Vikander bursts into the top 5 to land at #4 but there is definitely still some worry about where she’ll eventually end up. Again we’re hearing ‘chatter’ that Focus Features will push her into supporting but it’s still as of yet unconfirmed.
01. Cate Blanchett — Carol (85%; 189 votes)
01. Jennifer Lawrence — Joy (85%; 189 votes)
03. Carey Mulligan — Suffragette (73%; 161 votes)
04. Alicia Vikander — The Danish Girl (41%; 91 votes)
05. Julianne Moore — Freeheld (34%; 76 votes)
06. Saoirse Ronan — Brooklyn (32%; 70 votes)
07. Sandra Bullock — Our Brand Is Crisis (30%; 67 votes)
08. Charlotte Rampling — 45 Years (18%; 41 votes)
09. Lily Tomlin — Grandma (12%; 27 votes)
10. Meryl Streep — Ricki and the Flash (11%; 25 votes)
August continued to be the month of Beasts and last month’s fourth place finisher, Idris Elba, is now #1 with a bullet. He leaps ahead of Robert De Niro, Tom Hardy and Samuel L. Jackson to claim the top spot. His reviews from Venice this week will only serve to keep him in that spot for next month, I guarantee it. The move keeps the same five men in the top 5 but the bottom five sees debuts from Jason Segel (this will be a one and done for him) and Joaquim de Almeida. His screentime in the upcoming Our Brand Is Crisis is what puts him here. All Warner Bros has to do is actually promote the film somehow.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01. Idris Elba — Beasts of No Nation (77%; 85 votes)
02. Robert De Niro — Joy (75%; 83 votes)
02. Tom Hardy — The Revenant (75%; 83 votes)
04. Samuel L. Jackson — The Hateful Eight (63%; 69 votes)
05. Harvey Keitel — Youth (42%; 46 votes)
06. Benicio Del Toro — Sicario (24%; 26 votes)
07. Joaquim de Almeida — Our Brand Is Crisis (22%; 24 votes)
08. Robert Redford — Truth (18%; 20 votes)
09. Seth Rogen — Steve Jobs (13%; 14 votes)
10. Jason Segel — The End of the Tour (10%; 11 votes)
Will anyone topple Rooney Mara this season? Her stranglehold on the pole position in this category is impressive and with The Weinstein Company getting the film in multiple festivals this fall, a poster finally out and a tribute to Mara at Telluride, she’s going to ride this all the way. But, we’re watching out for Kate Winslet. The Oscar winner is back with a vengeance and she is thirsty for that 2nd Oscar. She makes a huge jump in total votes and lands at #2, the closest thing Rooney Mara has had to a competitor this season. Elsewhere, Helena Bonham Carter and Dian Ladd hold their own and no less than three ladies tie for 5th place right now; Jennifer Jason Leigh (making a big move), Elizabeth Olsen (her debut here) and Ellen Page. The ‘is she lead or supporting’ conversation has dropped Alicia Vikander from 4th to 8th and Isabella Rossellini debuts in the top 10 for the first time.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01. Rooney Mara — Carol (88%; 135 votes)
02. Kate Winslet — Steve Jobs (73%; 111 votes)
03. Helena Bonham Carter — Suffragette (51%; 78 votes)
04. Diane Ladd — Joy (47%; 72 votes)
05. Jennifer Jason Leigh — The Hateful Eight (32%; 49 votes)
05. Elizabeth Olsen — I Saw the Light (32%; 49 votes)
05. Ellen Page — Freeheld (32%; 49 votes)
08. Alicia Vikander — The Danish Girl (27%; 42 votes)
09. Jane Fonda — Youth (20%; 31 votes)
10. Isabella Rossellini — Joy (18%; 28 votes)
Remember, these results are based on YOUR votes so if you don’t like what you see, let your voice be heard; vote on next month’s predictions HERE.