AwardsWatch - Gold Rush Gang 2016 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (August)

Gold Rush Gang 2016 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (August)

In a dramatic change-up, Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) has passed Cate Blanchett (Carol) to be the new queen of the Best Actress race. She rises to #1 on the strength of the Joy trailer as it has been one of the most highly anticipated trailers of the season. This now puts Joy atop the Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor charts. It’s edged out of the top spot by a single point in Best Original Screenplay (for the first time) this month by Inside Out. It’s also a strong 2nd in Best Film Editing.

Blanchett is no slouch though, it’s a minor drop in points for her and still keeps her far ahead from Carey Mulligan in Suffragette who remains at #3 with the same 33 points as last month.

Julianne Moore (Freeheld) and Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) take hits in the point department and that’s a result of the Gold Rush Gang coming around to the likelihood of The Danish Girl‘s Alicia Vikander being a lead contender and not supporting. Some of us have been there for months, it should be noted. Here’s where things get interesting though; Focus Features has both The Danish Girl and Suffragette and has two contender in Best Actress. Will this be a ‘Sophie’s Choice’ for them? Will they push Vikander more since Mulligan is an already proven Oscar commodity? It seems entirely possible for the studio, who has had the last two Best Actor winners in a row, is more than capable of managing this dual campaign with agility and success.

The announcement from Warner Brothers that Our Brand Is Crisis will be released on October 30th was enough for Chris Pepper to give her a 5th place berth for now. It remains to be seen if the film will be a major contender or not and if Warner’s will be putting its strength behind it or Black Mass this season. OBIC is also Warner’s only real shot at a Best Actress nomination unless they actually try and get one for Charlize Theron in Mad Max: Fury Road. I know there are a handful of Oscar predictors thinking this might happen but it feels more like hope-dicting than anything realistic.