AwardsWatch - 2016 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR – McCarthy, Spielberg Move Up, Russell Still #1

2016 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR – McCarthy, Spielberg Move Up, Russell Still #1

For the first time in our 2016 Oscar predictions Best Picture and Best Director match up not only 5/5 but in the same order. Pretty impressive when you consider the movement made by two directors (and their films) here; Thomas McCarthy (Spotlight) and Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies). For McCarthy, his film is enjoying ‘frontrunner’ status among many Oscar pundits and he winds up at #2 with The Gold Rush Gang. Early in the year Steven Spielberg made a very strong showing on reputation alone but buzz died down over summer until its NYFF debut and over the last two weeks of its box office. The prestige pick is showing significant legs and the subject matter of the film (Cold War era good guys and bad guys) will speak right to the majority demo of the Academy. Plus, how can you count out someone like Spielberg with SIX Best Director nominations and two wins? Todd Haynes (Carol) and Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant) hold on and David O. Russell (Joy) is not ready to let go of the #1 spot, a place he’s held since our first predictions last Spring.

A few single votes for Lázló Nemes (Son of Saul) and Ridley Scott (The Martian) populate the bottom of the Gold Rush Gang list but big drops from Tom Hooper (The Danish Girl) Cary Fukunaga (Beasts of No Nation) and Danny Boyle (Steve Jobs) make for a very slim roster of likely nominees this year. That said, we’re still looking for Quentin Tarantino to possibly make it #3 for The Hateful Eight and Lenny Abrahamson could break through if Room ends up being a top 5 Best Picture candidate.