With the explosive news that Viola Davis would indeed go supporting for Fences that immediately vaulted her to the top of the new Supporting Actress list and not just the top of it, a perfect score to boot. She is now, without question, the one to beat in this category.
That move decimated the totals for last month’s #1 Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea), #2 Naomie Harris (Moonlight) and #3 Nicole Kidman (Lion). All are bumped down a notch with siphoned votes moving to Davis.
While it seems like that top four is pretty secure (but really, is it ever?) then we look at who’s in line for that last spot. Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women) and Janelle Monáe (Hidden Figures) land at #5 and #6, respectively this month. Interestingly, both actresses are also featured, in very brief parts, in other high-profile Best Picture hopefuls. Gerwig in Jackie and Monáe in Moonlight. That could boost either of them to Oscar status. Gerwig has the advantage of being in a film with a likely Best Actress nominee (Annette Bening) and hitting multiple fall festivals. Monáe seemed stronger a week ago when Hidden Figures was all but secured as the AFI Fest closing night film…until it wasn’t. Now, without a strong presence and visibility, the late December release of her film puts her chances at risk.
Elsewhere, if it’s not going to be Gerwig or Monáe, we can look at possibles like Felicity Jones in A Monster Calls, Helen Mirren in Eye in the Sky or even an out of left field nomination for Laura Linney. While Sully would seem like the more likely chance for her, her very brief cameo in Nocturnal Animals could be just the type of nomination the Oscars can throw out there. Plus, if anyone knows about getting an Oscar nomination with zero precursor support it’s Linney.
Finally, it’s with great regret that Kristen Stewart becomes the latest casualty of the failure of Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. She falls off the list this month not only due to the poor response the film received at its NYFF premiere but that Sony has removed the film entirely from its FYC awards page. That’s a pretty clear signal as to how they feel about it, too.
Here are the 2017 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actress from The Gold Rush Gang for November:
Laura Dern – The Founder
Elle Fanning – 20th Century Women
Felicity Jones – A Monster Calls
Aja Naomi King – The Birth of a Nation
Laura Linney – Nocturnal Animals
Laura Linney – Sully
Helen Mirren – Eye in the Sky
Katey Sagal – Bleed For This
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Follow the updated Gold Rush Gang predictions in these Oscar categories here:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (the shortlist)