With the BAFTA nominations just announced this week, we now have the list of actors nominated for all four major precursors: Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild and BAFTA. Being a combination of industry and critics’ groups, the combination of these four are about as secure as you can be as an actor in the hunt for an Oscar nomination. But don’t get too comfortable, history is littered with high-profile performances and actors who have gotten the sought after quadrants only to be left at the alter. Last year, Amy Adams hit all four and was in a film with Best Picture and Best Director nominations and got snubbed. Oscar winners Tilda Swinton, Emma Thompson and Marion Cotillard have all been snubbed, too.
Best Actress looks the closest to solid right now, with four actresses securing all precursors. Sitting right on the outside are Meryl Streep, Judi Dench and Jessica Chastain. Best Actor has three solid contenders and two open spots. Those fighting for it are Tom Hanks, Denzel Washington and James Franco.
The supporting categories are really open. Only two performers in each category have locked in the four. That means there are three slots completely up for grabs and over a dozen possibilities to fill them.
Last year, 13 performances hit this mark. This year, only 11 did. Here they are.
Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (GG winner – Drama)
Allison Janney – I, Tonya (GG winner)
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (GG winner)
Last year, we got Oscar nominees from outside this group in Lucas Hedges, Ruth Negga, Denzel Washington, Isabelle Huppert, Meryl Streep, Viggo Mortensen and Octavia Spencer from there. The last 6 years had at least one acting contender that got in with no GG/SAG/BAFTA nomination. In fact, there are only four years (2001, 2002, 2006, 2010) without a nominee of a GG+SAG+BAFTA snubbed performance. Meaning, we might find at least one potential nominee in the Critics Choice Only section. Then there’s always Michael Shannon, who leapfrogged over his co-star in Nocturnal Animals (Aaron Taylor-Johnson, who actually won the Golden Globe) to end up Oscar-nominated. Can he do it again?
Here’s how the rest of this season’s contenders break down and where we might find the nominees to fill out the four acting categories.
Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
Hong Chau – Downsizing
James Franco – The Disaster Artist (Golden Globe winner – Comedy)
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul
Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes (Lead at GG, Supporting at SAG)
Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game
Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name
Tom Hanks – The Post
Meryl Streep – The Post
CRITICS CHOICE only
Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip
Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger
Patrick Stewart – Logan
Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name
Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Jamie Bell – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Hugh Grant – Paddington 2
Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour
Golden Globe only
Ansel Elgort – Baby Driver
Helen Mirren – The Leisure Seeker
Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes
Michelle Williams – All the Money in the World
Here is the list of performers who found themselves with an Oscar nomination with ANY precursors at all since 2003:
Shohreh Aghdashloo – House of Sand and Fog (Best Actor nominee)
Djimon Hounsou – In America (Best Actress nominee)
Clint Eastwood – Million Dollar Baby (Best Picture, Best Director winner)
William Hurt – A History of Violence (LAFCA and NYFCC winner)
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah (previous winner)
Laura Linney – The Savages (previous nominee)
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road
Maggie Gyllenhaal – Crazy Heart (Best Actor winner)
Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Best Picture nominee)
Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook (previous nominee, Best Picture nominee, coattail)
Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street (previous nominee, Best Picture nominee, coattail)
Bradley Cooper – American Sniper (previous nominee, Best Picture nominee)
Laura Dern – Wild (previous nominee, coattail)