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2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (May) – Can Olivia Colman be the Favourite?

Amy Adams as Lynne Cheney (Backseat) is still #1 and she’s going to stay there, I expect, for a long time. Unless there’s some crazy plan to push her in lead she should dominate here.

The month does see some movement from a trio of actresses all angling for a spot in the top 5. Nicole Kidman bumps up one to #4 for Boy Erased, which just revealed its first official pics this week (and with a trailer forthcoming) but the fun battle to me is between two queens: Oscar nominee Margot Robbie as Queen Elizabeth I in Mary Queen of Scots and Golden Globe winner Olivia Colman as Queen Anne in The Favourite. Both films are poised for some healthy fall festival appearances and inevitably will be compared against each other at every turn. Robbie benefits from being her film’s sole supporting female while Colman will face some internal competition from Oscar winners Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, depending on how Fox Searchlight decides to play them. Robbie does have studio competition (Focus Features) in Oscar winner Nicole Kidman.

A pair of players see dips this month; Emmy winner Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk was perched at #2 in April but falls to #5 for May. Screen Actors Guild winner Claire Foy (First Man) tumbles to Earth (aka out of the top 5) but I’m not sure if that’s a wise choice on my part. She has the quintessential supporting wife role here Janet Armstrong, spouse of the first man on the moon. While her role (and its length) remains to be seen, Kathleen Quinlan found herself Oscar-nominated for 1995’s Apollo 13 in a nearly identical part as Marilyn Lovell (wife of Jim Lovell).

This is going to be a very fluid category, I think. I can see any number of the Next Up and Other Contenders legitimately vying for a spot. If Widows is as strong as I think it will then Emmy, Grammy and Tony winner Cynthia Erivo can start closing in on the ‘O’ of her EGOT. Oscar winner Tilda Swinton could break through the ultraviolence of Suspiria (and out from under hours of makeup) to earn her first nomination after her win that she was denied for with We Need to Talk About Kevin.

Then, as always, there’s Meryl Streep. I’m not anticipating that her role in Mary Poppins Returns will be much more than her role in Suffragette but that didn’t stop many people (myself included) from having her in the race.

Janelle Monáe (The Women of Marwen) pops in as the month’s sole debut.

Here are my predictions for Supporting Actress for May 24, 2018.

Green – moves up
Red – moves down
Blue – chart debut

1. Amy Adams – Backseat
2. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots
3. Olivia Colman – The Favourite
4. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased
5. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
6. Sissy Spacek – Old Man and the Gun
7. Claire Foy – First Man
8. Vera Farmiga – The Front Runner
9. Emma Stone – The Favourite
10. Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians

 

NEXT UP
Cynthia Erivo – Widows
Tatiana Maslany – Destroyer
Janelle Monáe – The Women of Marwen
Ruth Negga – Ad Astra
Kristen Wiig – Where’d You Go, Bernadette

 

OTHER CONTENDERS
Jennifer Aniston – Dumplin’
Kathy Bates – On the Basis of Sex
Annette Bening – Georgetown
Lucy Boynton – Bohemian Rhapsody
Linda Cardellini – Green Book
Zoe Chao – Where’d You Go, Bernadette
Blythe Danner – What They Had
Laura Dern – JT Leroy
Adèle Exarchopoulos – The White Crow
Eiza González – The Women of Marwen
Denise Gough – Colette
Salma Hayek – The Hummingbird Project
Lena Headey – Fighting with My Family
Carol Kane – The Sisters Brothers
Diane Kruger – The Women of Marwen
Lisa Lu – Crazy Rich Asians
Teresa Mahoney – Peterloo
Rachel McAdams – Disobedience
Chloë Grace Moretz – Suspiria
Alison Pill – Backseat
Charlotte Rampling – The Little Stranger
Elena Sofia Ricci – Loro
Emily Rios – If Beale Street Could Talk
Andrea Riseborough – Burden
Julia Roberts – Ben is Back
Amy Ryan – Beautiful Boy
Léa Seydoux – Kursk
Anna Deavere Smith – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Meryl Streep – Mary Poppins Returns
Tilda Swinton – Suspiria
Holland Taylor – Gloria Bell
Marina de Tavira – Roma
Katherine Waterston – Mid 90s
Jacki Weaver – Widows

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (May)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (May)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (May)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (MAY)

2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (May)

About Erik Anderson

Erik thanks his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards together since he was in the single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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