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2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (July) – Adam Driver and Mahershala Ali keep pushing and the return of Russell Crowe

Are the Oscars ready to bring Russell Crowe back into the fold?

No change this month for Oscar nominee Timothée Chalamet in Beautiful Boy and Oscar winner Sam Rockwell in Backseat. These two will be lockstep in the #1 and #2 spots for at least another month, if not more.

Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) keeps moving up, taking over the #3 spot, switching places with Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) Both are looking for their first Oscar nominations. I brought back Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) and shouldn’t have ever let him fall from the top 10. With Creed II coming out in November that will only help keep him name in the game.

July sees two debuts, the first from Steve Carell in Backseat. The Oscar-nominated actor probably has a better shot as lead in Beautiful Boy even though he’ll compete directly with himself in Welcome to Marwen. His role in Backseat might not get him a supporting nomination but in the off-chance he splits his lead votes he could show up here. Next is Russell Crowe in Boy Erased. With Focus Features moving the film to a more awards-friendly November release that could open the gates to nominations outside of just Lucas Hedges and Nicole Kidman. Crowe hasn’t been nominated since 2001’s A Beautiful Mind, which won Best Picture. That nomination capped off a three-year nomination streak that included a Best Actor win for Gladiator but Crowe fell out of favor after his infamous phone-throwing BAFTA incident. Is Hollywood finally ready to forgive and forget and embrace him again?

Kyle Chandler (First Man) and Jeff Bridges (Bad Times at the El Royale) fall off the list.

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Best Supporting Actor for July 16th, 2018.

Green – moves up
Red – moves down
Blue – chart debut

1. Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (Amazon)
2. Sam Rockwell – Backseat (Annapurna)
3. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
4. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
5. Stephan James – If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
6. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
7. Mahershala Ali – Green Book (Universal)
8. J.K. Simmons – The Front Runner (Sony)
9. Daniel Kaluuya – Widows (20th Century Fox)
10. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther (Walt Disney)

 

NEXT UP
Steve Carell – Backseat (Annapurna)
Russell Crowe – Boy Erased (Focus Features)
Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
Oscar Isaac – At Eternity’s Gate (CBS Films)
Alex Wolff – Hereditary (A24)

 

OTHER CONTENDERS
Jon Bernthal – First Man (Universal)
Jeff Bridges – Bad Times at the El Royale (20th Century Fox)
Kyle Chandler – First Man (Universal)
Robert Duvall – Widows (20th Century Fox)
Joel Edgerton – Boy Erased (Focus Features)
Robert Forester – What They Had
Topher Grace – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
Jake Gyllenhaal – The Sisters Brothers (Annapurna)
Lucas Hedges – Mid 90s (A24)
Tommy Lee Jones – Ad Astra (20th Century Fox)
Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
Matthew McConaughey – White Boy Rick (Columbia Pictures)
Liam Neeson – Widows (20th Century Fox)
Mark Ruffalo – Newsflash
Michael Shannon – What They Had (Bleecker Street)
Alexander Skarsgård – The Hummingbird Project
Sebastian Stan – Destroyer (Annapurna)
Corey Stoll – First Man (Universal)
Donald Sutherland – Ad Astra (20th Century Fox)
David Tennant – Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)
Courtney B. Vance – Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions)
Dominic West – Colette (Bleecker Street)

About Erik Anderson

Erik thanks his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards together since he was in the single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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