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2019 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (July) – Beautiful Boy Erased

Let’s here it for the boys. Both Boy Erased and Beautiful Boy rise in the ranks this month with Boy Erased entering the top 5.

Both films are aiming for top tier Oscar nominations but the adaptations of these true tales of gay conversion and drug addiction could really pull voters in. BlacKkKlansman, Widows and If Beale Street Could Talk stay put at #1-3, respectively, this month as does Jason Reitman’s The Front Runner.

Dropping are Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots and First Man. The Adapted Screenplay category, like last year, is quite rich with contenders and this early means it’s anyone’s game still.

Bird Box enters the Other Contenders chart as a film I’m keeping an eye on, especially with Hollywood legend Lisa Taback now in charge of Netflix’s Oscar campaigns.

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay for July 19, 2018.

Green – moves up
Red – moves down
Blue – chart debut

1. BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
2. Widows (20th Century Fox)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
4. Boy Erased (Focus Features)
5. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
6. Beautiful Boy (Amazon)
7. Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)
8. First Man (Universal)
9. The Front Runner (Sony Pictures)
10. Black Panther (Disney)


Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros)
The Incredibles 2 (Disney)
A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
Untitled Pippa Bianco aka Share (A24)
Welcome to Marwen (Universal)


The Aftermath
Bird Box
Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far on Foot
Fighting with My Family
Gloria Bell
Leave No Trace
Lean on Pete
The Little Stranger
Mary Poppins Returns
The Mercy
The Old Man & the Gun
The Sisters Brothers
The True History of the Kelly Gang
Vita and Virginia
The White Crow
The Wife

As mentioned above, with Lisa Taback at Netflix this boosts the profile for Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma considerably. It moves up into the top 3.

Green Book also continues to rise as I feel Universal might have a stronger awards play with it than with its other fall release Welcome to Marwen. Peterloo and Ad Astra fall a bit but not enough to cause too much concern. A recent test screening of an early cut of Ad Astra showed it had a lot to finish in terms of visual effects but could pull a screenplay nomination for its director, James Gray (with Ethan Gross). We’ll have to wait and see how 20th Century Fox balances its campaigns for this, Widows and Bad Times at the El Royale.

First Reformed continues to slowly rise, possibly earning Paul Schrader his first Oscar nomination. Amazingly, Schrader did not get nominated for classics Raging Bull or Taxi Driver, Martin Scorsese films that earned Academy Award wins and nominations in many other categories.

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Original Screenplay for July 19, 2018.

Green – moves up
Red – moves down
Blue – chart debut

1. Backseat (Annapurna)
2. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
3. Roma (Netflix)
4. Peterloo (Amazon)
5. Destroyer (Annapurna)
6. A Quiet Place (Paramount)
7. Green Book (Universal)
8. Ad Astra (20th Century Fox)
9. Mid 90s (A24)
10. Hereditary (A24)


Bad Times at the El Royale (20th Century Fox)
Fast Color
First Reformed (A24)
On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
Tully (Focus Features)


Ben is Back
Bohemian Rhapsody
Eighth Grade
The Happy Prince
Hearts Beat Loud
High Life
The Hummingbird Project
Isle of Dogs
The Nightingale
Operation Finale
Sorry to Bother You
What They Had

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (July)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (July)

2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (July)

2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (July)

About Erik Anderson

Erik thanks his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards together since he was in the single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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