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2019 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (October)

The Mule (Warner Bros)

The top 4 of If Beale Street Could Talk, BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Boy Erased hold tight this month as Widows creeps back up and A Star Is Born finds a closer spot in the top 10. 

Beautiful Boy falls out of the top 5 for the first time, despite the film’s strong festival run but it’s far from out. The allure of the screenplay coming from two books, both a child and parent perspective of drug addiction, could prove a very strong one for writers. 

A pair of indies trying hard to break into the top categories, Leave No Trace and Wildlife, move into the Next Up section in a category that is very fluid.  

The month’s sole debut, The Mule from Clint Eastwood, is inspired by a news article but it’s unclear how the Academy will view the screenplay. Even if the Writers Guild of America says it’s Original it could still land in Adapted (as Moonlight did two years ago).

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay for October 15, 2018.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
2. BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
3. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
4. Boy Erased (Focus Features)
5. Widows (20th Century Fox)

6. A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
7. Black Panther (Disney)
8. Beautiful Boy (Amazon)
9. First Man (Universal)
10. The Old Man & the Gun (Fox Searchlight)

NEXT UP

Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros)
The Incredibles 2 (Disney)
Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street)
The Mule (Warner Bros)
Wildlife (IFC Films)

OTHER CONTENDERS

Bird Box (Netflix)
Disobedience (Bleecker Street)
Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far on Foot (Amazon)
The Front Runner (Sony Pictures)
Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)
The Sisters Brothers (Annapurna)
Welcome to Marwen (Universal)
The Wife (Sony Classics)

2019 Oscar Predictions update LIVE

Eighth Grade (A24)

Virtually everything holds steady in Original Screenplay this month with the exceptions of Eighth Grade graduating to the top 10 as Peterloo moves off to Spring and Cold War into the Next Up section. 

The Mule shows up here as well as in Adapted depending on how the Academy views the film’s origin. 

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Original Screenplay for October 15, 2018.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut

1. ROMA (Netflix)
2. The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
3. Vice (Annapurna)
4. Green Book (Universal)
5. First Reformed (A24)

6. A Quiet Place (Paramount)
7. Destroyer (Annapurna)
8. Sorry to Bother You (Annapurna)
9. Hereditary (A24)
10. Eighth Grade (A24)

NEXT UP

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Netflix)
Capharnaüm (Sony Classics)
Cold War (Amazon)
On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
Tully (Focus Features)

OTHER CONTENDERS

Bad Times at the El Royale (20th Century Fox)
Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions)
Blindspotting (Lionsgate)
Bohemian Rhapsody (20th Century Fox)
Hearts Beat Loud (Stage 6 Films/Gunpowder & Sky)
Mid90s (A24)
The Mule (Warner Bros)

2019 Oscar Predictions update LIVE

About Erik Anderson

Erik thanks his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards together since he was in the single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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