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Golden Globe Predictions – Motion Picture

Even with a group as unpredictable as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a group of just over 90 international journalists based in Los Angeles, it’s probably safe to say that A Star Is Born and The Favourite will probably do very well here. 

That said, the Golden Globes are also the first major awards body, outside of critics, to announce nominations and they can often set the pace for what we’ll see next. While the Globes are always attempting to improve their integrity after decades of everything from bribes to questionable category placement, in the realm of awards predicting they’re still a big deal. 

More than a few films will need a Globe nomination to either kickstart or keep themselves in the awards conversation as we rev into high gear in the weeks before the Christmas holiday. 

I know we’ll see some surprises on Thursday when the nominations are announced. Let’s see if what I’ve predicted will be on the mark or need to go back to the drawing board. 

Here are my prediction for the Golden Globes – Motion Picture.

Best Motion Picture – Drama
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
(Next: First Man, Widows)

Even with heavy hitters like Green Book, The Favourite and Vice in Comedy this is a tough category. Word is that Bohemian Rhapsody played extremely well – after all, the HFPA aren’t critics. The former seems stronger whereas the latter needs to show up here after sputtering in the first week of critics’ announcements. Similarly, Widows is probably going to need to land here to have any hopes of keeping itself in the conversation.

Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice
(Next: The Death of Stalin, Eighth Grade; Love, Simon; Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again)

I’ll be very surprised to see anything outside of this top 5. But then, the HFPA has shocked us here before. I know they liked The Death of Stalin and maybe Eighth Grade hit enough just before the Sunday voting deadline.

Best Director
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, ROMA
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
(Next: Damien Chazelle, First Man; Peter Farrelly, Green Book; Adam McKay, Vice)

A competitive category. I’m predicting Lanthimos as the sole director from the Comedy side but if they loved Green Book as much as I’ve heard they do, Peter Farrelly showing up won’t be a total shocker.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
(Next: Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate; John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman)

Yeah I’m still sticking with Lucas Hedges, even though he even snubbed by the group for his Oscar-nominated turn in Manchester by the Sea. That nom put him on the map though and they could find a place for him here. Dafoe is a real spoiler though.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Glenn Close, The Wife
Viola Davis, Widows
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
(Next: Yalitza Aparicio, ROMA; Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots)

Even split in two, the toughest category of the bunch. I’m most worried for Aparicio here, who needs to show up soon, but I feel like she can do it. Kidman is a shot for double noms and could very well end up with both but I think she’ll be just outside here.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Christian Bale, Vice
Henry Goulding, Crazy Rich Asians
Lin Manuel-Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
(Next: Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool 2; Nick Robinson, Love, Simon)

Henry Goulding is my only outlier here but if they go for Crazy Rich Asians in a big way, he’s in. Reynolds got in for the first Deadpool but I don’t sense an urge to repeat.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Lily James, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
(Next: Sandra Bullock, Ocean’s 8; Kathryn Hahn, Private Life; Regina Hall, Support the Girls; Charlize Theron, Tully)

There’s almost always a head-scratcher here (Lily Collins anyone?) and I think it will be Lily James in Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again. If not, look out for Hahn or Theron as the most likely replacement.

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
(Next: Steve Carell, Vice; Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther; Sam Rockwell, Vice)

One of two categories I see aligning the closest with likely Oscar noms. Driver may be the weakest if they don’t go for BlacKkKlansman but then, he’s already managed mentions elsewhere when his film did not. Same goes for Jordan. If they don’t care for Black Panther he’s not making it, but if they do…

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Amy Adams, Vice
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
(Next: Claire Foy, First Man; Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots; Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians)

The other category that I think will most closely align with the Oscars. Based on my predictions, of course. Watch out for Yeoh to knock someone out though – probably Kidman.

Best Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Vice
(Next: Can You Ever Forgive Me?First Reformed, Green Book, ROMA)

Best Score
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
The Sisters Brothers
Widows
(Next: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Vice)

Best Song
“Revelation,” Boy Erased
“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns
“Here Comes the Change,” On the Basis of Sex
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
“Wrapped Up,” Vox Lux
(Next: “All the Stars,” Black Panther; “Ashes,” Deadpool 2)

The HFPA doesn’t align with Oscar very much here, whether it’s nominations or winners, and they don’t have the same eligibility rules. They’ve nominated Sia before so “Wrapped Up” may be her ticket.

Best Motion Picture – Animated
Dr. Seuss’s The Grinch
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse
(Next: Mirai, Smallfoot)

Look for big studios and sequels here. Despite being an ‘international’ group, it’s hard out there for a foreign animated film.

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
The Guilty  (Denmark)
Never Look Away  (Germany)
ROMA (Mexico)
(Next: Border – Sweden, Burning – South Korea, Girl – Belgium, Shoplifters – Japan)

As with Original Song, eligibility and submissions aren’t an issue so they often go outside of a country’s Oscar choice. But, with so many excellent official Oscar submissions we probably won’t see it this year. Still, I don’t expect the HFPA’s top 5 to match the Oscars.’

About Erik Anderson

Erik thanks his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards together since he was in the single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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