Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) and Christian Bale (Vice) still hold the top two spots this month but a big swap between #3 and #6 with Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) falling out to make way for Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody).
While Hawke has been the clear critics’ favorite this season, with over a dozen wins so far, he missed a SAG nominations and it’s Malek that picked up steam and momentum. So much so that Bohemian Rhapsody started off December with a Motion Picture – Drama nomination at the Golden Globes and, even bigger, a Screen Actors Cast nomination at SAG. A win is another story as there is no precedent for one from a film with such a dismal Metacritic score (48).
The other big success story this month, with the Globes and SAG, is John David Washington. He also is part of Hawke’s bump out of the top 5. Washington’s second generation actor status is certainly helping him but BlacKkKlansman‘s strong performance so far is exactly what he needed for his more subtle performance to land a spot with bigger, more over the top ones like Bale and Viggo Mortensen (Green Book).
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate) is making a sneaky move though, having secured Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe nominations, something Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased) and Ryan Gosling (First Man) couldn’t do in higher profile films.
Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Best Actor for December 20, 2018.
Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut/return
1. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (BFCA, GG, SAG)
2. Christian Bale – Vice (BFCA, GG, SAG)
3. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody (BFCA, GG, SAG)
4. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book (BFCA, GG,SAG)
5. John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman (GG, SAG)
6. Ethan Hawke – First Reformed (BFCA, Spirit)
7. Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate (BFCA, GG)
8. Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased (GG)
9. Ryan Gosling – First Man (BFCA)
10. Stephan James – If Beale Street Could Talk
Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns (GG)
Robert Redford – The Old Man & the Gun (GG)
John C. Reilly – Stan and Ollie (GG)
Chadwick Boseman – Black Panther
Ben Foster – Leave No Trace