If it hadn’t been for that weird Golden Globe snub of Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born) this category would be pretty wrapped up in terms of nomination predictions.
Still, I think it’s probably the most locked acting category at this point with not a lot of real outliers with a chance of bursting the bubble of Mahershala Ali, Timothée Chalamet, Adam Driver, Sam Elliott and Richard E. Grant.
Grant is the runaway critics’ leader this season and he moves up to the #1 spot. The excellent performance by BlacKkKlansman at the Globes and SAG noms also push Driver all the way up to #2.
The continued controversy over Green Book is enough to bump Ali down but I don’t think it would be enough to take him out of contention, nor the film. It will still probably play well with the old guard of the Academy.
Only Sam Rockwell (Vice) and Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) have an outside shot of breaking that top 5 unless the actors’ branch goes super crazy for The Favourite and nominates Nicholas Hoult (although that seems unlikely). Steven Yeun (Burning) is getting a boost from the critics and he joins the top 10.
Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for December 20, 2018.
Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut/return
1. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit)
2. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman (BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit)
3. Mahershala Ali – Green Book (BFCA, GG, SAG)
4. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born (BFCA, SAG)
5. Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (BFCA, GG, SAG)
6. Sam Rockwell – Vice (GG)
7. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther (BFCA)
8. Brian Tyree Henry – If Beale Street Could Talk
9. Steven Yeun – Burning
10. Steve Carell – Vice
Hugh Grant – Paddington 2
Nicholas Hoult – The Favourite