Sat. Jul 20th, 2019

2019 Oscar Predictions: ANIMATED FEATURE, DOCUMENTARY FEATURE, FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM (December)

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Animated Feature has turned into a real race as early favorites and sequels, Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet, have been out in front since their releases. But it’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse that’s taken the majority of critics’ awards so far (by a huge margin), but does that make it a favorite to win?

2019 Oscars – The Shortlists

Even though I2 and Ralph topped the Annie Award nominations and those are a very good precursor to the Oscars, sequels have also not been treated that kindly in the past. Remember when Finding Dory became the highest grossing animated film of all time and was a lock to win the Oscar? It was, until it wasn’t even nominated. Now, Incredibles 2 has that exact same mantle. Could it be snubbed?

ANIMATED FEATURE

Here are my 2019 Oscar Predictions for Animated Feature for December 18, 2018.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut/re-entry

1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Annie, BFCA, GG)
2. Incredibles 2 (Annie, BFCA, GG)
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (Annie, BFCA, GG)
4. Isle of Dogs (Annie, BFCA, GG)
5. Mirai (Annie, BFCA, GG)

6. Early Man (Annie)
7. Lu Over the Wall
8. Dr. Suess’s The Grinch (BFCA)
9. Smallfoot
10. Tito and the Birds (Annie)

OTHER CONTENDERS

Ana y Bruno
Fireworks
Have a Nice Day
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
The Laws of the Universe – Part 1
Liz and the Blue Bird
Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms
MFKZ (Annie)
The Night Is Short, Walk On Girl
On Happiness Road
Ruben Brandt, Collector (Annie)
Sherlock Gnomes
Sgt. Stubby: American Hero
Tall Tales
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Of Fathers and Sons

Feeling less like Hale County This Morning, This Evening will be able to break through the glut of high-profile, and high-grossing, documentaries this year but this category is always ripe for major upsets that often include perceived frontrunners getting snubbed on nomination morning. This year, Morgan Neville’s Won’t You Be My Neighbor? is far and away the critics’ pick but would the doc committee be so heartless as to deny it? I don’t think that’s going to happen this year but any number of major releases this year could make way for smaller, more eclectic choices. I’m keeping an eye on Of Fathers and Sons to possibly be that choice.

Here are my 2019 Oscar Predictions for Documentary Feature for December 18, 2018.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut/re-entry

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (BFCA winner, CYE, IDA, Spirit)
2. RBG (BFCA)
3. Three Identical Strangers (BFCA, CYE)
4. Minding the Gap (BFCA, CYE, Spirit)
5. Shirkers (Spirit)

6. Of Fathers and Sons (CYE, IDA, Spirit)
7. Free Solo (BFCA, IDA)
8. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (CYE, IDA, Spirit)
9. Dark Money (BFCA, IDA)
10. On Her Shoulders (Spirit)
11. Crime + Punishment (IDA)
12. Quincy
13. The Silence of Others (IDA)
14. Charm City
15. Communion

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

Burning (South Korea)

I’m taking a big risk here. With the release of the shortlist for Foreign Language Film yesterday, the lack of European representation – always a staple here – told me that the new leaders of the FLF committee are looking for something different. I am predicting, at the moment, for a shocking snub of Poland’s Cold War. Yes, I know, it’s crazy. There are pundits predicting Pawel Pawlikowski to earn a Best Director nomination (which I don’t really understand) and to be sure, Amazon is pushing the film like nobody’s business. So, believe me when I say I know how crazy it sounds to predict it being snubbed. 

I think we’re going to see a revolution in this category that includes the first-ever nomination for South Korea (Burning) that keeps the ‘first-time’ country nomination intact and the return of Japan with Shoplifters. Adding Lebanon’s Capharnaüm and it would be the most Asian-centric final five in recent memory.

Here are my 2019 Oscar Predictions for Foreign Language Film for December 18, 2018.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut/re-entry

1. Mexico – ROMA (BFCA, GG)
2. South Korea – Burning (BFCA)
3. Lebanon – Capharnaüm (BFCA, GG)
4. Germany – Never Look Away (GG)
5. Japan – Shoplifters (BFCA, GG)

6. Poland – Cold War (BFCA)
7. Denmark – The Guilty
8. Colombia – Birds of Passage
9. Kazakhstan – Ayka

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