Sat. Oct 19th, 2019

2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (August)

Big moves and debuts for August but Timothée Chalamet remains at #1

With the announcement of the lineups of the Venice and Toronto film festivals, we start to push outside of the Oscar prediction guessing game and into more solid, definable territory. Plus, the information we have about those two fests give us clues as to what will show up at Telluride, which announces the day before it kicks off on August 31st. 

Venice will stage the world premiere of A Star Is Born (Sam Elliott), which will then hit Toronto. But, I’m hearing there might not be enough there for Elliott to secure a nomination and he falls a bit this month. 

Stephan James in If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)

Toronto will have world premieres of three Top 10 contenders; Timothée Chalamet in Beautiful Boy, Stephan James in If Beale Street Could Talk, and Daniel Kaluuya in Widows

Contenders also hitting Toronto, but based on their premiere status will debut at Telluride first, are Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Richard E. Grant) and The Front Runner (J.K. Simmons). 

Sam Rockwell remains at #2 although it seems Adam McKay’s Dick Cheney biopic Backseat might be holding off from the major fall fests (word is it’s still in the editing room) and will probably debut it at AFI Fest like The Big Short did. 

After the debacle of the Academy’s announcement of a new category, Outstanding Achievement in Popular Film, I’m inclined to boost Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) all the way up to #6 this month. Not only because he deserves it but he’ll have a lead role in Creed II this November and I feel that extreme backlash against this new category (which might not stick if the Board of Governors is listening) could boost him big time.

Harry Belafonte in BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)

Debuts are big this month. Although the conversation in Supporting Actor with regards to BlacKkKlansman has revolved mainly around Adam Driver (who dips a bit this month), I can see a strong case made for Harry Belafonte’s stirring and impactful 7-minute scene near the end of the film, which is out in theaters now. The Academy hasn’t shied away from rewarding short performances before and Belafonte, a 2015 Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award winner, actually has more screen time than Beatrice Straight, who won Supporting Actress for Network in 1977 for a 5-minute scene. 

As Glenn Close looks solid for her 7th Oscar nomination for The Wife, her co-star Jonathan Pryce could be category frauded into supporting and land a spot. It would be a great Oscars irony as co-lead actresses playing the supporting wife of lead actor contenders are often pushed down to compete in supporting and often win (Marcia Gay Harden, Jennifer Connolly, Alicia Vikander).

Tim Blake Nelson in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Netflix)

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, the Netflix anthology from the Coen Brothers, will WP at Venice…as a feature film. It’s also going to NYFF. That puts Tim Blake Nelson in contention, for now. 

Films like Boy Erased (Russell Crowe), Green Book (Mahershala Ali) and On the Basis of Sex (Armie Hammer) have, as of this writing, yet to be announced for any festivals and remain in limbo. Although, one of those is most definitely showing up at Telluride and final announcements for Toronto are still yet to come. 

Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Best Supporting Actor for August 13th, 2018.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut

1. Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (Amazon)
2. Sam Rockwell – Backseat (Annapurna)
3. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
4. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
5. Stephan James – If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)

6. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther (Walt Disney)
7. Mahershala Ali – Green Book (Universal)
8. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born (Warner Bros)
9. Daniel Kaluuya – Widows (20th Century Fox)
10. Harry Belafonte – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) 

NEXT UP
Russell Crowe – Boy Erased (Focus Features)
Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
Tim Blake Nelson – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Netflix)
Jonathan Pryce – The Wife (Sony Pictures Classics)
J.K. Simmons – The Front Runner (Sony)

OTHER CONTENDERS
Jon Bernthal – First Man (Universal)
Jeff Bridges – Bad Times at the El Royale (20th Century Fox)
Steve Carell – Backseat (Annapurna)
Kyle Chandler – First Man (Universal)
Robert Duvall – Widows (20th Century Fox)
Joel Edgerton – Boy Erased (Focus Features)
Robert Forester – What They Had
Topher Grace – BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
Jake Gyllenhaal – The Sisters Brothers (Annapurna)
Lucas Hedges – Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions)
Lucas Hedges – Mid 90s (A24)
Oscar Isaac – At Eternity’s Gate (CBS Films)
Tommy Lee Jones – Ad Astra (20th Century Fox)
Billy Magnussen – Velvet Buzzsaw (Netflix)
John Malkovich – Velvet Buzzsaw (Netflix)
Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
Matthew McConaughey – White Boy Rick (Columbia Pictures)
Liam Neeson – Widows (20th Century Fox)
Mark Ruffalo – Newsflash
Michael Shannon – What They Had (Bleecker Street)
Alexander Skarsgård – The Hummingbird Project
Sebastian Stan – Destroyer (Annapurna)
Corey Stoll – First Man (Universal)
Donald Sutherland – Ad Astra (20th Century Fox)
David Tennant – Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)
Courtney B. Vance – Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions)
Dominic West – Colette (Bleecker Street)
Alex Wolff – Hereditary (A24)

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