Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Amy Adams (Vice), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) and Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) are an unmoved force and all remain in the top and in their respective spots for a second month in a row. It seems risky as we get so close to critics’ awards and precursor season but those are the events that solidify previous thoughts or forge new paths. December’s predictions could look vastly different from these.
King has received the reviews to keep her spot (as well as being the most talked about element at a Golden Globes event this weekend). Adams has finally been seen as the first press screening for Vice also happened this weekend and like most of us suspected, she’s got the goods. Stone and Weisz, both previous Oscar winners are probably going to be lockstep together this season in this category (unless the Globes do something weird) and it’s hard to imagine them not making it in together. Nicole Kidman will have a tougher time in Best Actress (where she has Destroyer), a much more competitive category, so the Academy (and precursors) are most likely going to reward her here. She’s also received the film’s best reviews and is by far the most visible on the campaign trail for the film.
Claire Foy (First Man) and Marina de Tavira (ROMA) also hold onto their #6 and #7 spots, respectively.
With the world premiere of Mary Queen of Scots last week at AFI FEST, we all got our first look at Margot Robbie as Queen Elizabeth I and for me gave the best performance in the film. She moves back up this month. Although she faces stiff competition here she’ll likely also have the hurdle of older Academy voters having seen this role being played by Oscar-winning legends throughout history. Where will Robbie stands amongst them?
After Paramount decided to switch its decision to position Emily Blunt in Best Actress for A Quiet Place, she finds herself in contention here in Supporting Actress. With a lead role in Mary Poppins Returns, it’s not only a smart choice it’s one that could boost her here as Best Actress is, as previously stated, very competitive.
The big news is the huge jump for Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie in Leave No Trace. The young New Zealander could find herself with a breakthrough just as that future Oscar winner Jennifer Lawrence did in a Debra Granik film (2010’s Winter’s Bone). McKenzie just received a Spirit Award nomination for Supporting Female and, like Blunt, was only very recently moved from Best Actress contention into Supporting by her studio. She’s one to watch out for this season if the critics go for her. Looking at her 2019 slate that includes films with Timothée Chalamet (The King), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit) and Liz Garbus (Lost Girls), McKenzie is poised for stardom and the Academy loves to anoint young starlets.
Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Best Supporting Actress for November 19th, 2018.
Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – chart debut/return
1. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
2. Amy Adams – Vice (Annapurna)
3. Emma Stone – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
4. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
5. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased (Focus Features)
6. Claire Foy – First Man (Universal)
7. Marina de Tavira – ROMA (Netflix)
8. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)
9. Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros)
10. Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie – Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street)
Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place (Paramount)
Elizabeth Debicki – Widows (20th Century Fox)
Natalie Portman – Vox Lux (Neon)
Sissy Spacek – The Old Man & the Gun (Fox Searchlight)
Tilda Swinton – Suspiria (Amazon)
Blythe Danner – What They Had (Bleecker Street)
Linda Cardellini – Green Book (Universal)
Cynthia Erivo – Bad Times at the El Royale (20th Century Fox)
Cynthia Erivo – Widows (20th Century Fox)
Tatiana Maslany – Destroyer (Annapurna)
Rachel McAdams – Disobedience (Bleecker Street)
Meryl Streep – Mary Poppins Returns (Walt Disney)
Maura Tierney – Beautiful Boy (Amazon)
Dianne Wiest – The Mule (Warner Bros)