Oscar voting began on Monday, January 7th and lasts until Monday, January 14th. That gives voters knowledge of Golden Globe and Critics Choice winners (on the 13th) as well as SAG and BAFTA nominations. Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22nd.
Nearly every season gives us at least one big snub from someone that has all four and there’s rarely no clear line or pattern. Many times, amazingly, it hits previous Oscar winners: Tom Hanks, Marion Cotillard, Tilda Swinton or Emma Thompson among them. Sometimes it’s from a multi-nominee from a very strong film like Amy Adams in Arrival two years ago. I find it difficult to think she’d be snubbed again, especially since she’s been Oscar-nominated every time her co-star were nominated as well (American Hustle, Doubt, The Fighter, The Master).
In Best Actor we have a solid four in Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) and Viggo Mortensen (Green Book). Bale and Malek have won the first awards – the Golden Globes. All other contenders are missing at least two of the four pieces of the puzzle. I’d say Viggo Mortensen is the most vulnerable here. Although Malek represents a first-time nominee (this category is almost never without one), if BlacKkKlansman is a stronger film than Green Book – and by all estimations and guild totals it is – then John David Washington could swoop in and land a spot. Ryan Gosling could benefit from a First Man resurgence but he probably needed to hit BAFTA for that to fully realize. Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) may be the overwhelming critics favorite but not outside of Critics Choice.
In Best Actress there is another group of four with the quartet: Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) and Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?). Close and Colman won Golden Globes this last weekend. Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns) is right behind, having shockingly missed out on a BAFTA nomination this week. That snub benefits Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) the most. Despite missing everything except Critics Choice (which has seven nominees), Aparicio is the face of Roma and director Alfonso Cuarón has been using every opportunity (including two at the Golden Globes) to stump for her. Like Hawke in Best Actor, Toni Collette (Hereditary) has been a critics fave but has had a difficult time translating that to industry attention.
Best Supporting Actor sees four men with everything: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) and Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?). Ali is the Golden Globe winner. Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born) and Sam Rockwell (Vice) are in the fight for that fifth spot and each Sam has something going for him. Elliott is a veteran who’s never been nominated and in a film that’s a Best Picture frontrunner and Rockwell just won the Oscar in this category last year and could see an afterglow nomination (much like Chalamet) as a validation of the Academy’s choice. Michael B. Jordan, who once seemed like a distinct possibility to make the top 5, is seeing his chances dwindle with every guild and group that skips out on Black Panther.
Supporting Actress is the race to watch. Only three women have all four nominations – Amy Adams (Vice), Emma Stone (The Favourite) and Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) – then it gets really complicated. Claire Foy (First Man) is next with three but crucially missing SAG. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) only has Critics Choice and the Golden Globe but she WON the Globe! Being SAG and BAFTA snubbed puts her in a deeply precarious place, especially when Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) has them. Robbie was nominated for the Best Actress Oscar last year and, like Rockwell and Chalamet, this would be a classic afterglow nomination. Foy is benefitting from First Man making a strong showing at Critics Choice, BAFTA and the guilds at just the right time. Both If Beale Street Could Talk and Mary Queen of Scots have underperformed this season so it’s going to be a nail-biter between these two.
Check my live 2019 Oscar predictions to see how BAFTA has affected the Oscar race in these and all categories.