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Frontrunner Friday: ‘BlacKkKlansman’ back on top; ‘A Star Is Born’ is a guild monster

It’s been a week. Throngs of guild nomination announcements came in, continuing to help shape the Oscar race. Sunday was the Golden Globes, the first televised awards of the season that often frontrunners solid footing or gives someone a crucial boost they need. All of those things happened but nothing bigger came this week than the discovery that Nick Vallelonga, the co-writer and co-producer of Green Book, which had just won three Globes – including Best Picture (Musical or Comedy) and Best Screenplay – had tweeted directly to then candidate Donald Trump in 2015 his support for the debunked claim that he had also seen Muslims in New Jersey cheering as the Twin Towers fell on 9/11. This was found by an AwardsWatch forum member during a routine look at the Oscar contender’s Twitter revealed it. It was posted on Twitter and it took off in minutes, resulting in a 24-hour period of discovery, Twitter deletion, apology and the likelihood that the top-tier candidate could be in serious trouble.

Nick Vallelonga, co-writer and co-producer of Green Book at last Sunday’s Golden Globes

Oh, did I mention this also is Oscar nomination voting week? Voting started on Monday, the bombshell dropped on Wednesday, voting ends this coming Monday. It will be interesting to see what ultimately happens on January 22nd when nominations are announced. I think the film will take a bit of a hit, but it might be too late to impact nominations. I am predicting that Viggo Mortensen, who is the most vulnerable, has the highest chance of missing out and right now I think he will. This new scandal combined with his own n-word use controversy seems too much to turn a blind eye to. Overall, I think its wins are most in jeopardy but that remains to be seen. Ironically, I still have Mahershala Ali winning, as he has emerged the least scathed and prior to this week had shouldered the lion’s share of questions about the movie’s accuracy and done so with tremendous grace. That Villelonga’s tweet was anti-Muslim could garner sympathy for Ali, who is Muslim.

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As I mention in the title, A Star Is Born has been a total guild monster, becoming the only film this season to hit every guild. Only one guild remains, the Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) and they don’t announce until January 21st. It’s entirely possible, likely even, that ASIB hits that too as the MPSE has multiple categories. BlacKkKlansman has also hit most guilds plus has DGA, PGA, SAG Cast and Golden Globe and Critics Choice Best Picture nominations – just as A Star Is Born does. The Critics’ Choice Awards are this weekend so we’ll have the second piece of our puzzle soon. I’m going back to my summer prediction of BlacKkKlansman triumphing in Best Picture. While A Star Is Born will have few detractors, when you look at recent BP winners it’s going to lack a certain gravitas and topicality that the Academy has been leaning towards. The Shape of Water, Moonlight and Spotlight all overcame odds to win and all have social and political elements either in subject matter or at their core that makes BlacKkKlansman seem like an undeniable choice.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday picks for January 11, 2019. The next predictions will be my FINAL 2019 Oscar nomination predictions next week. Frontrunner Friday will then resume as Oscar winner predictions.

BEST PICTURE

1. BlacKkKlansman (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, SAG)
2. ROMA (BAFTA, BFCA, GG win*, PGA)
3. A Star is Born (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, SAG)
4. The Favourite (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA)
5. Black Panther (BFCA, GG, PGA, SAG)
6. Vice (BFCA, GG, PGA)
7. Green Book (BAFTA, BFCA, GG win, PGA)
8. Bohemian Rhapsody (GG win, PGA, SAG)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (BFCA, GG, Spirit)
10. Crazy Rich Asians (GG, PGA, SAG)

DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuarón – ROMA (BAFTA, BFCA, DGA, GG win)
2. Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman (BAFTA, BFCA, DGA, GG)
3. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (BAFTA, BFCA, DGA, GG)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite (BAFTA, BFCA)
5. Adam McKay – Vice (BAFTA, BFCA, DGA, GG)

BEST ACTOR

1. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody (BAFTA, BFCA, GG win, SAG)
2. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG)
3. Christian Bale – Vice (BAFTA, BFCA, GG win, SAG)
4. John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman (GG, SAG)
5. Ethan Hawke – First Reformed (BFCA, Spirit)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close – The Wife (BAFTA, BFCA, GG win, SAG, Spirit)
2. Olivia Colman – The Favourite (BAFTA ,BFCA, GG win, SAG)
3. Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG)
4. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG)
5. Yalitza Aparicio – ROMA (BFCA)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali – Green Book (BAFTA, BFCA, GG win, SAG)
2. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit)
3. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit)
4. Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG)
5. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born (BFCA, SAG)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (BFCA, GG win, Spirit)
2. Amy Adams – Vice (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG)
3. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG)
4. Emma Stone – The Favourite (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG)
5. Claire Foy – First Man (BAFTA, BFCA, GG)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. BlacKkKlansman (BAFTA, BFCA, WGA)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, WGA)
3. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit, WGA)
4. Black Panther (BFCA, WGA)
5. The Death of Stalin

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Favourite (BAFTA, BFCA, GG)
2. ROMA (BFCA, GG, WGA)
3. Vice (BAFTA, BFCA, GG, WGA)
4. Green Book (BAFTA, BFCA, GG win, WGA)
5. Eighth Grade (BFCA, WGA)

FILM EDITING

1. ROMA (ACE, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. First Man (ACE, BAFTA, BFCA)
3. BlacKkKlansman (ACE)
4. Vice (ACE, BAFTA, BFCA)
5. A Star is Born (ACE, BFCA)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. ROMA (ASC, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. A Star is Born (ASC, BFCA)
3. First Man (ASC, BAFTA, BFCA)
4. Cold War (ASC, BAFTA)
5. The Favourite (ASC, BAFTA, BFCA)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Favourite (ADG, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. First Man (ADG, BAFTA, BFCA)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (ADG, BAFTA, BFCA)
4. Black Panther (ADG, BFCA)
5. ROMA (ADG, BAFTA, BFCA)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Favourite (BAFTA, BFCA, CDG)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (BAFTA, BFCA, CDG)
3. Black Panther (BFCA, CDG)
4. Bohemian Rhapsody (BAFTA, BFCA, CDG)
5. Mary Queen of Scots (BAFTA, BFCA)

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Black Panther (BFCA, GG)
2. First Man (BFCA, GG winner)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (BAFTA, BFCA, GG)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (BAFTA, BFCA)
5. Isle of Dogs (BAFTA, BFCA, GG)

ORIGINAL SONG

1. A Star Is Born, “Shallow” (BFCA, GG win)
2. Black Panther, “All the Stars” (BFCA, GG)
3. Mary Poppins Returns, “The Place Where Lost Things Go” (BFCA)
4. RBG, “I’ll Fight” (BFCA)
5. Boy Erased, “Revelation” (GG)

SOUND EDITING

1. First Man
2. ROMA
3. Black Panther
4. Ready Player One
5. A Quiet Place

SOUND MIXING

1. A Star Is Born (BAFTA, CAS)
2. First Man (BAFTA, CAS)
3. Black Panther (CAS)
4. ROMA
5. A Quiet Place (BAFTA, CAS)

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Black Panther (BFCA)
2. Vice (BAFTA, BFCA)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (BAFTA, BFCA)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Black Panther (BAFTA, BFCA)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (BFCA)
3. Ready Player One (BAFTA, BFCA)
4. First Man (BAFTA, BFCA)
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG win)
2. Incredibles 2 (Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG)
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (Annie, BFCA, GG)
4. Isle of Dogs (Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG)
5. Mirai (Annie, BFCA, GG)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (BFCA winner, CEH, DGA, IDA, PGA, Spirit)
2. RBG (BAFTA, BFCA, DGA, PGA)
3. Three Identical Strangers (BAFTA, BFCA, CEH, DGA, PGA)
4. Minding the Gap (BFCA, CEH, Spirit)
5. Dark Money (BFCA, IDA)

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. Mexico – ROMA (BAFTA, BFCA, GG win)
2. Poland – Cold War (BAFTA, BFCA)
3. South Korea – Burning (BFCA)
4. Denmark – The Guilty
5. Japan – Shoplifters (BAFTA, BFCA, GG)

About Erik Anderson

Erik thanks his mother for his love of all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards together since he was in the single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself at GoldDerby, led by Tom O’Neill and then migrated over to Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), headed up by Sasha Stone before breaking off to create AwardsWatch. He is a member of the International Cinephile Society, GALECA (The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics), the International Press Academy and is the founder/owner of AwardsWatch.

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