Fri. Sep 20th, 2019

2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (August)

Is it time to get serious about JOKER?
(Photo: Niko Tavernise/© 2019 Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc. All Rights Reserved)

There’s a new #1 in Adapted Screenplay as Sony/TriStar’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood unseats Netflix’s The Irishman for the top spot for the first time. Is it a bellwether for something to come? Maybe.

Every film in my top 10 for Adapted Screenplay has been announced for a festival run, save one: Sony/Columbia’s Little Women (which just dropped its first trailer today) but could find itself as an AFI world premiere due to its Christmas Day release. Further down there’s also the Untitled Todd Haynes aka Dry Run or Dark Water from Focus Features. It might show up at Telluride only (or not at all) but until it does I’m dropping it down for this month.

Elsewhere, things hold steady but I’m very curious to see how audiences, critics and awards bodies react to Warner Bros’ Joker and its screenplay. Versions of the script have recently been circulating and many think it’s going to cause social media meltdowns (but what doesn’t). I’m holding off on reading it and instead going to wait for it to screen. It’s making its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival in competition (where AwardsWatch will have the film reviewed). It’s a bold move by Warner Bros that could pay off. Word on Joaquin Phoenix’s performance is pretty stellar and he could walk away with the fest’s Volpi Cup. Willem Dafoe won it last year for the little-seen At Eternity’s Gate and he turned it into a Golden Globe and Oscar nomination.

Here are my 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions in Adapted Screenplay for August 13, 2019.

Green – moves up Red – moves down Blue – new/re-entry

1. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/TriStar)
2. Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
3. The Irishman (Netflix)
4. Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)
5. Just Mercy (Warner Bros)

NEXT UP (alphabetical by film)

The Aeronauts (Amazon)
Joker (Warner Bros)
The Laundromat (Netflix)
Little Women (Sony)
Motherless Brooklyn (Warner Bros)

OTHER CONTENDERS (alphabetical by film)

The Goldfinch (Amazon/Warner Bros)
The Good Liar (Warner Bros)
The King (Netflix)
The Last Thing He Wanted (Netflix)
The Personal History of David Copperfield (TBD)
Radioactive (Amazon)
Toy Story 4 (Disney/Pixar)
Untitled Todd Haynes aka Dry Run or Dark Water (Focus Features)

ADAPTED OR ORIGINAL?

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/TriStar)
Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)

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