Thu. Oct 22nd, 2020

2021 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (August)

Some movement this chart, and two debuts, but with each passing month and as we enter the dog days of summer and move to fall, we’ll finally be getting actual looks and trailers of upcoming films and performances that will help shape Oscar predictions in a year that has proven to be quite difficult to do.

Right off the bat, and on the heels of its first trailer yesterday, Ammonite gave us our first look at Saoirse Ronan in Ammonite. A four-time nominee, three in lead and one in supporting, Ronan could potentially best her co-star Kate Winslet as the youngest actress with the most Oscar nominations. Winslet had earned 5 nominations by the time she was 32. Ronan could  accomplish that by age 26 with a nomination here next February (she turns 27 in April). But will Neon play the category fraud game with Ronan like so many studios have with LGBTQ romances?

Glenn Close remains atop the chart with Hillbilly Elegy. The 7-time Oscar nominee has been a bridesmaid more times than any living actor and after her astonishing loss two years ago, she’ll have an even stronger narrative behind her and also a likely stronger film.

But who’s nipping at her heels? None other than the woman who bested her in that upset, Olivia Colman. The question remains, as it did two years ago, will Colman go lead or supporting for The Father. She’s lead material in the film (as much or more than The Favourite) and it would leave room for at least one of her female co-stars like Imogen Poots. 

Ana de Armas may not have her Marilyn Monroe biopic Blonde this season, but she’ll have her first film with boyfriend Ben Affleck coming in November, the 90s style sex thriller Deep Water from Fatal Attraction director Adrian Lyne. After a huge breakthrough with Knives Out, de Armas should be on everyone’s radar (if only thanks to the non-stop paparazzi photos of her and Affleck) and a nomination here sets her up for next season. But, is she lead or supporting in Deep Water?

A new entry this month, and I just couldn’t help myself, is Lesley Manville in Let Him Go. While the film itself seems like nothing much in terms of Oscars, Manville’s performance in the trailer screams it. Think Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom or Melissa Leo in The Fighter. Hyper-protective mother with a big blonde wig and a cigarette that’s practically another character. It could be high camp, but then Leo won for playing it that way.

Elizabeth Debicki drops from the list after the international reviews for Tenet reveal her limited ‘damsel in distress’ role. A rising star, Debicki will have to wait for another vehicle to take her to the Dolby. Rooney Mara is also off the list until news that Nightmare Alley resumes production in time to finish by the February 2021 deadline.

Here are my ranked 2021 Supporting Actress Oscar predictions for August.

Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – new entry this month

  1. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
  2. Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite (Neon)
  3. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Classics)
  4. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)
  5. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century)
  6. Helena Zengel – News of the World (Universal)
  7. Lesley Manville – Let Him Go (Focus Features)
  8. Mary J. Blige – Respect (MGM/UA)
  9. Ana de Armas – Deep Water (20th Century)
  10. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24)

Other contenders: Abigail Breslin – Stillwater (Focus Features), Priyanka Chopra – The White Tiger (Netflix), Toni Collette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix), Camille Cottin – Stillwater (Focus Features), Rebecca Ferguson – Dune (Warner Bros), Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros), Tiffany Haddish – The Card Counter (Focus Features), Felicity Jones – The Midnight Sky (Netflix), Nicole Kidman – The Prom (Netflix), Natasha Lyonne – The United States vs Billie Holiday (Paramount), Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24), Rita Moreno – West Side Story (20th Century), Elisabeth Moss – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), Meryl Streep – The Prom (Netflix), Marisa Tomei – The King of Staten Island (Universal)

2021 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (August)

2021 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (August)

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